NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
2025 NFL Picks: 31-28-1 (-$2,045)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 28, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: There’s good news and bad news concerning the 49ers and their health situation. The good news is that Brock Purdy is expected back this week. Jauan Jennings may return as well, while George Kittle won’t be too far behind. San Francisco was stagnant on this side of the ball versus Arizona, scoring a meager 16 points, but the offense will improve soon.

Purdy and Ricky Pearsall won’t have too much of a challenge in this matchup, aside from the former dealing with Jacksonville’s edge rush. The Jaguars can really get after the quarterback, but the 49ers have strong edge blocking to keep Purdy safe. Purdy, as a result, will be able to attack Jacksonville’s secondary.

Christian McCaffrey figures to have a strong showing as well. The Jaguars are ranked in the middle of the pack against the run, but haven’t exactly been tested in that regard yet. Stopping McCaffrey compared to a decrepit Nick Chubb or a mediocre Chuba Hubbard is quite different.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The bad news for the 49ers is that Nick Bosa is out for the year with a torn ACL. Rookie Mykel Williams thrived last week, but Bosa will sorely be missed because he’s one of the top edge players in the NFL.

Bosa’s absence will make Trevor Lawrence’s life so much easier. And Lawrence needs all the help he can get because he has struggled mightily this year. Granted, he had a very difficult matchup against the Texans last week, but Lawrence couldn’t fully take advantage of the Carolina and Cincinnati matchups either. It would help if Travis Hunter knew where to line up, but Liam Coen seems to be in way over his head right now.

The Jaguars should be able to establish their running backs fairly well, whether it’s as rushers or receivers over the backfield. The 49ers, like the Jaguars, are just in the middle of the pack when defending runners.

RECAP: I don’t have any interest in betting this game. I must have been on drugs because I swear I saw that this line was Jacksonville +7, and I began to write about how much I loved the Jaguars at that number. But then I looked at the line, and it was +3 after opening at +4. As you can imagine, my opinion on the Jaguars at +3 and +7 is quite different.

There’s very little margin for error for the Jaguars at +3. They’re the inferior team because Lawrence sucks and Coen is clueless, but without Bosa, the 49ers are a shell of their former selves.

One other reason to dislike the 49ers this week is because they have to battle the archrival Rams on Thursday night after this game. Given that the 49ers are 3-0, they could very easily overlook a non-conference foe like Jacksonville.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jaguars are now +3.5. This gives us more room for errr, but it’s not a good sign that this line moved off -3, as the sharps may have had something to do with that.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brock Purdy will be back this week, but both San Francisco receivers are listed as questionable. Jauan Jennings barely practiced this week, while Ricky Pearsall was DNP-limited-limited. If they’re both out, I will be betting some number of units on Jacksonville.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Looks like there’s sharp money coming in on the Jaguars on Sunday morning. Do the pros know something about the impending inactives list?

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was going to consider betting the Jaguars if both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings were declared inactive, but they’re both going to play. I won’t be on either side, but as mentioned in the morning, the sharps are on Jacksonville. The best line is +3.5 -120 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The 49ers are 3-0 and battle the Rams in four days.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.

Computer Model: 49ers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 62% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Jaguars are 66-113 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 22-54 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 71 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Many doubted Jonathan Taylor heading into this season because of his injury history and two replacements on the offensive line, but he’s been stellar. He’s currently should be the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, and he’s even in MVP consideration.

Taylor figures to run well on the Rams. Los Angeles has a history of struggling versus the run, stemming from last year when Saquon Barkley breezed through their defense on two occasions. The Rams will also have to worry about Daniel Jones’ mobility as well.

Speaking of Jones, he’ll be in a tough spot against the Rams pass rush. Los Angeles is excellent at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Indianapolis’ new offensive linemen will be tested.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Colts can also generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks at a decent rate, so the health of the Rams offensive line will be crucial for this matchup. The Rams were missing two guards by the end of last week’s Eagles game, which will spell trouble against an Indianapolis front comprised of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart.

The Rams won’t have much success running the ball if they’re down two interior blockers. The Colts being ranked 11th against ground attacks won’t help matters.

Matthew Stafford will have more of a burden on his shoulders this week, which, as discussed earlier, will be challenging if two interior linemen are sidelined. The Colts have some holes in the secondary that can be exploited, however, so Stafford will certainly have some big connections with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

RECAP: Where’s the respect for the Colts!? They’re 3-0, yet they’re getting more than a field goal. Sure, they’re battling a strong team in the Rams, but the Colts can argue that they’re a strong team as well.

I made this line Los Angeles -2.5, so I think this spread is on the wrong side of three. I like the Colts here, and not just because of the line being incorrect. The Rams are in a tough scheduling spot because they battle their archrival 49ers in just four days, so it would be in their best interest in focusing on that big game rather than this non-conference battle.

That said, Sean McVay is a terrific coach, and the Rams are a strong team, so I could see them fighting hard in this game to cover the spread. So, while I like the Colts, I don’t plan on betting them very heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is another game in which Andy made a compelling case for the opposite side:

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have some major injury concerns. The Colts may not have DeForest Buckner, who missed Friday’s practice. They’ll already be without Kenny Moore and a starting guard. Meanwhile, the Rams get a guard back from injury, but Davante Adams and Rob Havenstein look iffy to play. I’m going to re-designate this as TBA units until we have some clarity with these injuries.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There are some big names who may pop up on the inactives list, so we’ll have to see what that looks like. Check back around 3:30 Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: DeForest Buckner will play. Davante Adams and Rob Havenstein will play. How boring! I won’t have a play on this game, and the sharps haven’t touched this game at +3.5 either. If you like the Colts, you can get +3.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Colts play against the 49ers in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.5.

Computer Model: Rams -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 57% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -4.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams was given up for dead after the Lions obliterated the Bears in Week 2, 52-21. However, Chicago was coming off a short work week and didn’t have a great game plan prepared for Detroit. That changed ahead of Week 3, as Williams had the best performance of his career.

It helped that the Bears battled a truly horrific Dallas defense that allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 450 yards a couple of weeks ago. The Raiders are obviously better defensively than the Cowboys – everyone is – but they have some major defensive liabilities of their own. They just allowed Marcus Mariota to score 41 points against them.

The Raiders have some great pass rushers, so it’s odd that they’re so poor defensively. However, they’re 26th in defensive EPA because of poor linebacker and secondary play. Their run defense is poor, while their inability to stop the pass is even worse. The Bears should have plenty of success in this game, as their improved offensive line will be able to shield Williams rather well.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As bad as the Raiders defense has been, the offense has been just as poor the past couple of weeks. They scored just nine points against the Chargers and weren’t much better before garbage time versus the Redskins.

I would expect the Bears to bounce back on this side of the ball this week because they have a much softer opponent. While the Chargers and Redskins are in the top half of the NFL in defensive EPA, Chicago is ranked 21st in that regard despite two of their games being against J.J. McCarthy and a CeeDee Lamb-less Dallas offense.

The Bears have only 38 pressures in three games, so that has to be music to Geno Smith’s ears. Las Vegas’ offensive line is a mess, but it won’t have much of an issue against the Bears. And Chicago’s 27th-ranked run defense could finally allow Ashton Jeanty to have a big performance.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Las Vegas -2.5, and if we had a pre-advance spread, dated just after Week 1, we may have seen the Raiders be three-point favorites. Yet, they’re close to pick ’em now.

The only thing that has changed recently was the Bears dominating an injury-ravaged Dallas team, and the Raiders getting manhandled in two contests. However, the Raiders took on two top-10 teams in the Chargers and Redskins. They were fighting above their weight class and were beaten up as a result. Now, they’ll be battling a team similar to them, so they’ll have a higher chance of success.

I’m going to be on the Raiders. We’re getting some decent line value, and we’re also able to fade a blowout win by going against a publicly backed underdog, which is always nice.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still think this is a nice buy-low spot for the Raiders and a sell-high spot for the Bears.

PLAYER PROPS: Ashton Jeanty has been a huge disappointment, but only because his offensive line has been so bad. But as brutal as his blocking has been, Chicago’s run defense has been worse. The Bears have allowed 91 rushing yards to the combo of Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones; 151 rushing yards in total to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery; and 76 rushing yards to Javonte Williams on only 10 carries. Jeanty should be able to exceed his rushing total. The best number is over 66.5 rushing yards -111 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears still have cornerback issues with Jaylon Johnson on IR and Kyler Gordon barely practicing this week. The Raiders, who are mostly healthy, should bounce back off two ugly losses.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some sharp action is coming in on the Raiders on Sunday morning, which isn’t too much of a surprise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears will have D’Andre Swift available, but they’ll be missing Kyler Gordon, Grady Jarrett, Darnell Wright, and T.J. Edwards in addition to Jaylon Johnson, who is on injured reserve. The sharps continue to bet the Raiders. I’m going to put a unit on Las Vegas. The best line is -1.5 -110 at BetMGM and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -2.5.

Computer Model: Bears -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The Bears are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 61% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Raiders are 20-35 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It was so odd to see the Lions, of all teams, have a great game plan to limit Lamar Jackson on the ground. I say this because Detroit has historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks, but Jackson couldn’t get anything going as a scrambler, though it should be noted that the Lions did get a bit lucky with some shoe-string tackles.

Part of the problem for the Ravens was that their offensive line really struggled. They allowed seven sacks, so they’ll have to shore up their protection against the Chiefs. Kansas City actually has more pressures this year than Detroit, so perhaps Chris Jones and company will be able to limit Jackson by crowding his pocket.

The Ravens will be able to counter with Derrick Henry, who will once again be looking to redeem himself for a costly fumble. Henry has a much easier matchup this week. While the Lions are first in run defense EPA, the Chiefs are somehow 30th. Cam Skattebo just trampled them, so Henry may just redeem himself.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Baltimore’s poor pass protection was the least of the team’s worries on Monday night. The Ravens couldn’t stop the Detroit rushing attack either, as they sorely missed Justin Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy.

It’s unclear if Madubuike and Van Noy will be able to play in this game, but it’s not like the Ravens have a challenging Kansas City running game to stymie. The Chiefs struggle to gain yardage on the ground unless it’s via Patrick Mahomes runs, so it’ll be up to Mahomes to once again carry the team.

The Ravens also have an injury in the secondary – Jaire Alexander has missed the past two weeks – but the Chiefs also lack the weapons to exploit any weaknesses. There’s a chance Xavier Worthy will play, but he’ll be in a harness and won’t be 100 percent. Tyquan Thornton could have a big gain or two, but that’s not very sustainable.

RECAP: The Ravens were a big disappointment Monday night, but it’s not the first time they’ve been upset at home in a September game, and it won’t be the last. They’re currently 1-2, which is exactly where they were after three games last year. Their fourth game was an utter blowout of one of the top teams in the AFC, the Bills.

Could we see a repeat of that? I think it’s certainly possible. The Chiefs have lost to two other top-six teams they’ve battled thus far, so this could be a similar result, especially if the Ravens get some of their injured players back into the lineup. Sure, Kansas City had its way with New York on Sunday night, but the Giants suck. The Ravens, despite their loss to Detroit, will provide far stiffer competition.

I don’t know if I plan on betting the Ravens yet. We’ll have to see which defenders will be available for this big game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know the statuses of the injured Ravens players. We’ll have a much better update on Saturday.

PLAYER PROPS: Travis Kelce is a shell of his former self. He isn’t as involved in the offense anymore. He hasn’t caught more than four passes in any game. And with Xavier Worthy returning, his role could be diminished even further. The best number is under 4.5 receptions -129 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens didn’t get good news on the injury report. Not only are Justin Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy out again; the Ravens could be missing Ronnie Stanley, who barely practiced this week. A couple of other defensive tackles are iffy to play as well. Evan did well to sell me on Baltimore on Friday’s show, but I can’t back the Ravens with all of these injuries:

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Ronnie Stanley news could be big, so it’ll be interesting to see if he plays. Check back around 3:45 Eastern for the latest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyle Van Noy is out, but Ronnie Stanley will at least play. There’s also a chance Chris Jones won’t be available because he’s flying back from a funeral in Mississippi. I have no interest here, and the sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is -2.5 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

LIVE BET: This is a recommendation from Evan, but it’s something I did Monday night. I’m betting Lamar Jackson over rushing yards because he’s behind and will be running a lot. The best number is over 65.5 -112 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -2.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Money on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 63% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 101-27 SU, 67-59 ATS (53-45 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Chiefs are 13-31 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 82 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: We must begin on this side of the ball because that’s where all the injuries and the intrigue happen to be. The Cowboys have a number of injuries, with CeeDee Lamb being the most prominent player who will be sidelined. Lamb hurt his ankle early against the Bears, and it was so inflamed that he could barely move on the field. He’ll be sidelined 3-4 weeks. Meanwhile, the Cowboys will be down two offensive linemen, with guard Tyler Booker joining center Cooper Beebe on the injury report.

The intrigue, of course, concerns Micah Parsons’ return to Dallas. Parsons will be out for blood, and he’ll have an easy time getting to his former quarterback, given the horrible situation with Dallas’ offensive line. Dak Prescott will be under heavy heat from Parsons, Rashan Gary, and others, and he won’t have his No. 1 receiver at his disposal. That’s not good.

I wouldn’t count on the Cowboys running either. The Packers shut down the Detroit and Washington rushing attacks, and Javonte Williams won’t find much running room behind a line missing two interior blockers.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s tough to say if the Cowboys are in worse shape on offense or defense. That may sound strange after the previous three paragraphs, given that the Cowboys have so many injuries, but their defense is likely worse than the offense.

The Cowboys have allowed some historic performances to pedestrian quarterbacks the past two games. In Week 2, Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards against Dallas. This past Sunday, Caleb Williams had the best performance of his career. If Wilson and Williams were able to thrive, imagine what “No Cookie” Jordan Love is going to do.

Love isn’t the best quarterback, but he’s certainly better than the two aforementioned signal-callers. He’ll also be able to lean on Josh Jacobs, who figures to thrive against a team that is weak versus the rush.

RECAP: I don’t see how this isn’t going to be a massacre. Forget the Parsons stuff for a second. The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL, and they’ll be motivated coming off an ugly upset loss to the Browns. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the NFL. That wasn’t quite the case at the start of the year – although they were ranked in Group D in my NFL Power Rankings – but they’ve lost two offensive linemen and their top receiver.

Given the disparity between these teams, this line must be high. My projected spread for this game is Green Bay -11.5. And yet, the line is just a touchdown. This is a huge misprice because people don’t quite understand how awful the Cowboys are. People still remember the Week 2 shootout versus the Giants, but that was just a case of two poor teams battling each other.

And now, we get to the Parsons stuff, which is huge motivation. We tend to see teams rally around players who return to battle their former teams. Some recent examples include Tom Brady winning against the Patriots, or A.J. Brown demolishing the Titans. You can go all the way back to Lawer Milloy helping Buffalo’s defense force four interceptions of Brady. Parsons will be playing out of his mind for revenge.

This has to be a huge play. I can’t fathom an argument for the Cowboys, especially given that this line is so low.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is still one of my top plays. The Packers should dominate the Cowboys.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been asked about the Packers missing both of their guards. I’m not concerned. First of all, Aaron Banks stinks, so he’s easily replaceable. Zach Tom, not so much. And second, who on Dallas’ defensive line is going to take advantage of this?

PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Rather than a player prop, we’re going with a team prop: Dallas under 19.5 points. The best number is under 19.5 points -102 at DraftKings.

Staying on DraftKings, they have a 33-percent parlay boost for this game. We’re going to bet the Cowboys under 19.5 points, Javonte Williams under 50.5 rushing yards, and over 0.5 Dak Prescott interceptions. This $25 parlay pays $121.25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Packers and plan on betting their alt line. Check back around 7:45 Eastern for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some sharp money on the Packers earlier in the week, but other sharp action came in on the Cowboys at +7 and a bit at +6.5. You can get a near-clean -6 -112 at Bookmaker, though we’ll be betting a bit at FanDuel because they have a 50-percent profit boost, and a bit on BetMGM for a similar reason. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link. I’m also betting the alt line of Packers -20.5 +520, available at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

Micah Parsons revenge.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -4.5.

Computer Model: Packers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Lots of action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 80% (194,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 60-42 ATS in the regular season.

Matt LaFleur is 7-2 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Dak Prescott is 38-32 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Packers -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins had one of the worst offensive showings of the year against the Colts in Week 1. They’ve been better since, but only marginally against either poor or uninterested opponents. They moved the ball against the Bills, who seemed to be sleepwalking in that Thursday night affair.

It’s fair to be skeptical if the Dolphins can repeat what they did last Thursday. The Jets have a very strong pass defense, as Sauce Gardner will be able to limit Tyreek Hill. Then again, Hill isn’t doing much these days, so that’s nothing new.

The Jets have a big weakness on this side of the ball, and that would be against the run. You’d think this would be a great opportunity for the Dolphins to exploit this liability with De’Von Achane runs, but the Dolphins can’t really run all that well because of their severe offensive line issues. Something has to give in this matchup.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear which quarterback will start for the Jets. Justin Fields was concussed in Week 2 and missed last week’s contest. There’s a chance he’ll return to play Monday night, especially with one extra healing day, but concussions are weird and random. We could see Tyron Taylor again.

Either way, the Jets figure to score easily against Miami’s defense. The Dolphins have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. They’re starting someone who is worse than Storm Duck at the moment, so Garrett Wilson will have his way with this defensive backfield.

Breece Hall also figures to have a great game. The Dolphins haven’t been able to stop the run at all, with James Cook ripping through their defense with ease last Thursday. Hall had a monster game in Week 1, and we’ll see something similar Monday night.

RECAP: It’s a good thing there are two Monday night games because I have no betting interest in this contest. The one scenario I could see is if Taylor plays, but I have no interest in backing a quarterback returning from concussion. Quarterbacks in these situations often struggle in their first game back in action. Taylor, on the other hand, is healthy, and we’ll see a more favorable spread for the Jets if he gets the nod.

The other option is backing the Dolphins, and I don’t want to put any money on one of the worst teams in the NFL. Miami is so terrible that I don’t even want to side with them for zero units despite the opposing quarterback potentially returning from a concussion.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re still waiting on news about Justin Fields. We’ll have an update on Thursday.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like Justin Fields will play after he underwent two full practices. I don’t want to back a quarterback coming off a concussion, but I don’t want to lay points with the crappy Dolphins either.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Darren Waller will be making his debut for Miami, but I wouldn’t expect much. He’ll probably play 15-20 snaps and then get hurt.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Justin Fields has cleared his rushing yards prop of 45.5 in both games so far, and Miami surrenders lots of yardage to mobile quarterbacks. The best number is over 45.5 -114 at BetRivers.

We’re going to parlay the Fields rushing over (46.5), De’Von Achane over 54.5 rushing yards, and Tua Tagovailoa under 236.5 passing yards on DraftKings, which is offering a 33-percent boost. This $25 parlay pays $183. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no strong opinion on this game, and neither do the sharps. If you like the Jets, try to pay up for +3 because it’s the primary key number in the NFL. The best +3 I see is for -125 vig at Bookmaker.

LIVE BET: We won our Justin Fields prop. We’re going to do it again. The best number is over 90.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -2.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (182,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Dolphins have won 12 of the last 15 meetings.

Dolphins are 22-8 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 30 instances.

Dolphins are 35-49 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 82 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, the Yard High City, where the Denver Broncies will take on the Cincinnati Tigers. Guys, as you can see, I’m not there with you right now, and I’m joining you via Google Hangouts instead. I wanted to use Zoom, but Mother said that Chinese malware is the devil. Guys, you might be thinking that I’m staying at home in protest because my Philadelphia Eagles, the greatest team in the world, is not playing on Monday night yet again, but it’s because Mother forbade me to go. She’s hearing that a lot of famous people are being assassinated like that Kirk guy, and she fears that I might be next because I’m so famous and controversial.

Emmitt: Thanks, Kirk. I does not belief that you very conversational. Every times I try to talk to you, all you mentioning is how you can’t not talk to girl because they the devil, or you bragging about your Nick Folds bubble head doll, and only little girl play with doll.

Reilly: Emmitt, how dare you? My Nick Foles – not Nick Folds, dumba** – bobblehead doll collection is priceless and everyone is jealous of it. That alone makes me a huge target, and there are probably lots of posts on social media talking about how everyone wants to shoot me. I would see this myself on social media, but I’m not allowed on social media because Mother says that it’s the devil.

Tollefson: Reilly, no one is going to shoot you. If anyone’s getting shot, it’s me. My greatest fear is that the husbands and boyfriends of the women I kidnap to cook and clean naked for me will find me and put me into an early grave. But no, this will not stop me from kidnapping women. If I don’t do that, who will cook and clean naked for me? And whose bodies could I possibly dump into the ocean if they misbehave? What a horrible life that would be for me if I didn’t kidnap women!

Reilly: Tolly, I don’t think you understand how influential I am. Clarissa Thomas, you usually have accurate reports. Can you please tell Tolly that it’s highly likely that someone will assassinate me?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mark. I can confirm that someone is going to try to assassinate you, Mark. In other news, I have an injury report for you. Terrell Davis broke his liver and will not be available for this game. Back to you, Kirk.

Reilly: Oh man, I have Terrell Davis on my fantasy team, but I can’t change my lineup because it’s on ESPN, and Mother says ESPN is the devil. I need to stop talking and duck under the couch so someone doesn’t shoot me from my own living room, so let’s go to Mina Kimes, who will probably tell us about how she’s oppressed and whatnot.

Mina Kimes: Guys, everyone is talking about what I said this year. I said that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, but then he had a bad game against the Raiders. This is what happens when you’re oppressed as a female Asian football analyst. In fact, if anyone is going to be shot here, it’s me. No one is hated more than a female Asian NFL analyst. Everyone is mad at me for saying that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, but I was somehow wrong because I was being oppressed, and now everyone wants to shoot me. If I happened to be a white male NFL analyst, no one would want to shoot me, and I probably wouldn’t have said that Geno Smith wasn’t a top-one quarterback, only because I wouldn’t be so oppressed.

Reilly: Are you crazy!? No one wants to shoot you compared to- BANG! BANG! BANG! AHHH I HEAR GUNFIRE, THEY’RE COMING TO GET ME, AHHHHH!!!

Sarah Spain: HAHAHHAHA YES YES, YES!!! THEY SHOT KEVIN REILLY, HAHAHAHAHAAHAHA, OH HAPPY DAY! IT’S ALWAYS GREAT WHEN WHITE MALE NFL ANALYSTS ARE SHOT!!!

Mina Kimes: Oh, come on! This is horrible! Sarah, you shouldn’t be happy that Kevin got shot. You should be upset that I didn’t get shot which is only because I’m being oppressed as a female Asian NFL analyst!

Reilly: Guys, it’s OK. I dodged a bullet. Not literally. Those gunfire noises are from the TV. Mother is watching some war movie. She said I can’t watch because I’m not old enough, and I need a permission slip. New Daddy, can you sign my permission slip, pretty please!?

Jay Cutler: Nah, I don’t want you here because I don’t wanna get shot.

Reilly: New Daddy, that’s so nice that you care about me. I just hope I’m not the latest big figure to be assassinated.

Charles Davis: Kevin, you said you’re a big figure so let’s discuss other fat people, Kevin. Let’s begin with Rosie O’Donnell, Kevin. What do you think about Sally Struthers, Kevin? We’d be remiss not to talk about the fattest man ever, Walter Hudson, Kevin. How about the late Chris Farley Kevin? Give me your thoughts on Kevin James, Kevin. That’s another Kevin, Kevin. Maybe there’s something to Kevins being fat people, Kevin.

Reilly: Charles Davis, I didn’t say I was fat! You’re the one who’s fat! But that doesn’t mean that you’re going to be assassinated like me because you’re ugly and no one likes you!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Jake Browning’s “second” season hasn’t gotten off to the start Bengal fans were anticipating. The Bengals were embarrassed in Minnesota, with the Vikings defense outscoring the Bengals offense with two returned touchdowns.

We could see more of the same in this game. Denver has a terrific pass rush that was able to hound Justin Herbert last week. As great of a left tackle as Joe Alt is, Nik “Casa” Bonitto had his way with him. If Bonitto could dominate Alt, just imagine what he’s going to do to Cincinnati’s blind-side protector. Browning doesn’t stand a chance, especially with his top receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, dealing with Patrick Surtain II.

Running won’t be an option either. The Falcons compiled about 200 rushing yards on the Vikings, and yet Chase Brown couldn’t even reach double-digit yardage because Minnesota crowded the line of scrimmage. The Vikings correctly determined that they didn’t need to respect Browning, and the Broncos will be able to treat the backup quarterback similarly.

DENVER OFFENSE: Shockingly, Cincinnati’s defense wasn’t the worst unit on the field against the Vikings. Sure, they allowed some big gains, but they were able to pressure Carson Wentz on occasion.

It’s unlikely that the Bengals will have the same success against Bo Nix. Denver’s offensive line is in better shape right now, and Nix has some mobility to avoid Cincinnati’s pass rushers. Nix missed some deep throws last week, so he’ll need to do a better job of completing good opportunities. It’ll be easier to do that against Cincinnati than the Chargers.

Nix will be able to feed his running backs and expect great results as well. Jordan Mason just trampled Cincinnati’s weak run defense, so we can expect similar results from J.K. Dobbins.

RECAP: The Vikings were one of our top plays last week because it’s obvious that the Bengals are done. They won some games with Browning two years ago, but their defense still had solid players like D.J. Reader, Chidobe Awuzie, and Sam Hubbard in addition to Trey Hendrickson. Now, they just have Hendrickson. Offensively, the blocking is miserable. Browning just has no chance against teams with great defenses.

The Broncos obviously have a great defense. They’ll generate tons of pressure on Browning, forcing him and the rest of the team into more turnovers. And the Broncos will be able to score at will.

We’ll once again be fading the Bengals for a high-unit play. Not only are the Broncos the far better team in this matchup; they’re also in a great spot because they’re coming off two consecutive losses. There will be a sense of urgency to avoid a 1-3 start. We just saw something similar from the Vikings, who rebounded off a blowout loss on national TV. At 1-2, the Broncos can’t afford to play any games, so we’ll see them at their best against one of the league’s worst.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may bet the -20.5 alt line at +400 or so odds. This game likely won’t be competitive.

SATURDAY NOTES: It doesn’t look like we’re waiting on anyone concerning the injury report. This seems to be a very easy pick on Denver.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This is another game where I’ll be betting the alt line. Check back Monday evening for more.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Bengals have been trampled against the run the past two weeks, and that won’t change tonight. J.K. Dobbins’ best number is over 64.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re going to bet Dobbins over rushing yards (66.5), Ja’Marr Chase under 67.5 receiving yards, Chase Brown over 2.5 receptions, and Broncos moneyline. This $25 parlay is boosted at BetMGM and pays $141.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Broncos seem pretty straightforward here, as they’re the superior team in a great spot. The Bengals, meanwhile, are an automatic fade with a bad quarterback going against an elite defense. The sharps, for some reason, haven’t weighed in on this game. The best line is -7.5 -103 at Bookmaker, but what’s even better is that you can get -7 -115 at the same sportsbook. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

I’m also going to bet the alt line of -20.5. The best -20.5 is at +420 vig on DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Broncos will look to avoid 1-3.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Equal action early, Broncos action late.

Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (221,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Zac Taylor is 11-4 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 66 degrees. Light wind.