By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Updated April 4, 2017.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks**
Baldwin is one of the most efficient fantasy receivers in the league, and if it weren’t for lingering injuries that Russell Wilson played through last year, Baldwin would have likely finished higher than last season’s 10th-best fantasy wide receiver. I expect another Top-10 season, with upside for more.
Lamar Miller, RB, Texans
I still like Miller, but he showed that he couldn’t do it by himself last year. He needs some kind of passing game to open up the running game, and Brock Osweiler didn’t come close to supplying that last season. If Tony Romo ends up in Houston, I’ll like Miller a lot more than I do right now.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans
The Titans’ offense is perfect for Murray, as they like to run the ball, but also have a solid quarterback who can also run and take defenses away from keying on their top back. The only concern for Murray is getting long in the tooth and Derrick Henry is a stud when given a chance. But the starting job is Murray’s as long as he’s healthy and I’m willing to give him another year on my fantasy team.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
Allen is a bit of a wild card this year, but should continue to lead the Chargers in targets, but maybe not like he has the previous two seasons now that they have Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams getting quality targets. Allen’s injury history is concerning, but I’m willing to risk that at the right price.
Leonard Fournette, RB, FA
You can debate just how good Fournette is, but most of his fantasy value in 2017 will come from where he is drafted. If he ends up in Jacksonville, he will be the no-doubt starter and worth a top pick, but his upside in that offense wouldn’t be crazy. I will probably wait on drafting too many rookies until after the 2017 NFL Draft, even though you can get them at value if you choose correctly.
Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers
Hyde is a good running back, and if he’s healthy, I think he gives you value in any offense. His injury history is scary, especially if the 49ers can’t take pressure off him through a more productive passing game. I’d grab Hyde based on talent, but also wait on him due to offense.
Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
I keep moving Ingram up my rankings and feel pretty good about it. He doesn’t get the work I’d like, but in that offense, he’s quite efficient and Tim Hightower is no longer on the team to take away any goal-line looks. Sean Payton will find a way to limit Ingram’s touches, but he finished as the 10th-best fantasy running back last season despite ceding 12 carries inside the opponent’s five-yard-line to Hightower.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
Thomas needs a new quarterback and soon. He had shell of Peyton Manning in 2015 and then soon-to-be career backup Trevor Siemian last year. If Thomas is stuck with a scrub at quarterback again, then we can expect another low-touchdown season and a similar finish as the 17th-best fantasy wide receiver. Like DeAndre Hopkins in Houston, Thomas needs Tony Romo at quarterback this coming season to help him reach his fantasy potential.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles
Jeffery is a top receiver in this league and could flourish with Carson Wentz throwing him the ball, but we also have a lot of mouths to feed in Philadelphia. The good news is that Jeffery is the best mouth to feed and the Eagles threw the ball the sixth most in the NFL last season. As long as he can stay healthy, he should get you fantasy points in bunches.
C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos
I was high on Anderson last year, and then, he was underwhelming before getting injured. But then his backup and most likely competition this season, Devontae Booker was just as bad, mostly worse, than Anderson to finish the season. I’m not happy about it, but I’ll be taking Anderson again, as he’s on a good defensive team that will need to run the ball. Still, I would much rather the Broncos pick up Romo to open up the offense.
Davante Adams, WR, Packers
Adams has improved and showed it last season, but he’s still going to rely on Aaron Rodgers to give him great targets. I don’t love Adams for his price and would rather grab Randall Cobb later in the draft.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins
Landry will continue to be a decent PPR player, but his upside is hurt by his lack of touchdowns. Since MFL10s are PPR, he still has value, but you can’t really hope for much more than what you draft him for.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
I always wait on quarterbacks, but if you’re going to grab one early, Rodgers is the guy to get. His ADP is at 35th overall as the first quarterback off the board, which aligns with where he went here. It will take him falling further past his ADP for me to be tempted though.
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts
I can get behind Rodgers this early to an extent, but Luck is too early here. For one thing, his ADP is the 53rd pick, and for another, his upside doesn’t look to be over the moon. I think he has a good season and will throw the ball a lot in this offense, but again, this is just too early when you can get him later.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns
I like Crowell quite a bit this year, as you can see here. His price has been rising lately and the 39th pick is starting to get a bit rich for my blood, as his current ADP sits at 46th overall. Much will depend on how your draft is going of course. I could see grabbing him this early if you are already hurting for starting running backs, but I would rather wait.
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Redskins
Pryor is another guy I like and wrote about here. Pryor will be the No. 1 target in a pass-first offense. I’ll take it.
Golden Tate, WR, Lions
Tate had a similar 2016 season to Jarvis Landry, and I expect this is the role Tate will continue seeing. We can expect 90-plus targets, 1,000 yards and 4-6 touchdowns, which probably means this spot is about right for him despite his ADP being about eight slots later.
Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders
Crabtree remains a solid fantasy producer due to his high target numbers, both inside and outside the red zone. At some point, Amari Cooper should start to out produce him, but I don’t think we can bank on that until the red-zone targets actually start.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts
Moncrief is a touchdown stud and if he can play 16 games, double-digit touchdowns should be a given. Here is my take on him for 2017.-
Dalvin Cook, RB, FA
Again, rookies are tough to judge at this point. Cook has been going off the board as the 16th running back and 40th-overall pick. If you believe in his talent, I can see making the plunge, but who knows what his situation will look like. 
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
This is a bit early for Henry compared to his ADP of 57, but I can understand the thinking that Henry could flip roles with DeMarco Murray at some point. It’s a risk this drafter was willing to take, but I’m not quite there. I think Murray holds onto the job long enough to keep Henry’s season-long stats down.
Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots
Edelman’s value has hit the skids since Brandin Cooks arrived in New England. Edelman is currently going off the board as the 26th wide receiver and 50th-overall pick, and I think those may be too high. If Cooks can take over as the No. 1 wide receiver target in this offense and Gronkowski remains the second target, Edelman’s upside will be cut off completely.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
Kelce has finally started fulfilling his promise to be a top fantasy tight end, and there is no reason not to target him as your starter, especially when he falls in the draft a bit, like here. He’s currently the second tight end off the board and 39th-overall pick in ADP, so 47th overall is a decent spot for him. I could see going with Jordan Reed over him due to upside, but Reed is a bit scary health-wise.
Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs**
After going with Le’Veon Bell, Rob Gronkowski and Doug Baldwin, I felt like my next pick was up for grabs. I’ve been a Ware fan for a while now, but was disappointed in him last season. Much of that disappointment came after a concussion suffered in Week 8. Before the concussion, he was on pace for over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, with a robust 5.2 yards per carry. Following the concussion, he was on pace for just over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and a 3.7-yards-per-carry clip. Kansas City could go after a running back in the 2017 NFL Draft, but I doubt it will be someone who is set to take over the starting job, so Ware will get another chance to perform as the every-down back.
For a refresher, check out Chet’s MFL10 Primer.
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