By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Updated March 31, 2017.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers**
I had the first pick and went with Bell over David Johnson. They are pretty much interchangeable for me, but I do worry about Carson Palmer more than Ben Roethlisberger as a catalyst for the overall offense.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys
Zeke is a monster and will get into the end zone enough to offset his lack of receptions, but I’d still go with Johnson here due to his receiving usage and ability.
David Johnson, RB, Cardinals
Johnson is too good in all areas of the game to fall even to the third-overall pick.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants
Beckham Jr. is my No. 1 receiver, but it is close with Antonio Brown. You really can’t go wrong, and I do think Brandon Marshall helps free up Beckham, and a free Beckham is scary.
Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
Brown has a down year for him in 2016, but he still finished as the third-best fantasy receiver and led the league in receptions. He’s a solid as you can get and a great first-round pick.
Mike Evans, WR, Bucs
Evans was a target hog last season, and it helped him to tie with Jordy Nelson as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver despite his lack of efficiency. This year, Evans should continue to see good targets, but will have DeSean Jackson on the other side to take some pressure off. I like him as a first-rounder.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Jones is a monster, who, if not for nagging injuries, would easily be the No. 1 receiver on average. But he just misses too many plays each season to feel confident that he’ll get you first-round results. In 2015, however, he did put up first-round numbers, and we know he has the ability to be the best, so we can’t let him drop too far.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers
Gordon is high in my rankings with Danny Woodhead out of the picture. You can take a look at why I like him here.
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
My only concern with Green this year is the Bengals’ offensive line, or lack thereof. Green should still be fine, but I could see letting fall a bit further.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
Freeman showed me a lot last season, even when splitting time with Tevin Coleman. My concern centers around Freeman’s 13 touchdowns, which I worry aren’t sustainable if the Falcons aren’t quite as dominant offensively as they were in 2016.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots
Cooks here is a reach for me. I believe the upside is there, but he is currently going off the board around the end of the second round to the beginning of the third, which means we can likely wait another round to grab him. Also, the Patriots’ offense is scary for players not named Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski because we just don’t know who is going to see usage from week-to-week. Edelman may be relegated behind Cooks, but we know Edelman is integrated into the offense, and Cooks will need to prove to be a fast learner and fight off Gronkowski and Edelman for targets.
Jordan Howard, RB, Bears
I picked Howard in the first round in my last MFL10, and now I regret it to an extent. For one thing, I skipped LeSean McCoy, who I like a bit more overall, and for another, the Bears’ offensive line scares me a bit. I think Howard is a safe enough second-round pick, but I don’t love him in the first round.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills
McCoy is getting up there in age for a running back, but his production is still near the top – he finished as the third-best fantasy running back last season. The Bills have a new defensive-minded coach and an offensive coordinator in Rick Dennison, who should continue to push the running game. Add in the ability of Tyrod Taylor to take focus away from McCoy on the ground, and I’m on board for another solid season for Shady.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
If Hilton could up his touchdown numbers, I’d feel more than happy with him as a first- or early second-rounder, but he just isn’t very efficient in the red zone – see Donte Moncrief for that. Hilton is going to continue to get you big plays and yardage, but he’ll need to be a bit luckier in the touchdown department this season to give you safe value this high in a draft.
Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
Unlike Hilton, Bryant is a touchdown machine and in no way have his touchdowns been fluky over his career. Injuries have been the flukiest part of Bryant’s game to date, but I’m willing to put those aside and grab him even earlier than here.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Nelson is another touchdown hog, and despite his injury history and age, it appears that having Aaron Rodgers throwing you the ball will boost your numbers. Who would’ve thought?
Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins
Ajayi was a beast last season, but he has to be docked for his lack of receiving numbers. Thankfully, the Dolphins’ offense looks like it will continue focusing on the run game and getting Ajayi more work in the passing game as well. He is a solid second-rounder, but he is likely being drafted at his upside.
Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
With Brandin Cooks gone, Thomas won’t have as much competition for targets and is set to expand on a great rookie season. Not having Cooks there to take away pressure could hurt, but Thomas is the de facto red-zone target and should keep his floor low with double-digit touchdowns to go with his 90-plus receptions. Drew Brees and that offense are still going strong, and Thomas will benefit as the No. 1 target. He’s a no-doubt second-rounder in my book.
Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars
So much ability, but so much instability with Blake Bortles at the helm makes Robinson scarier than he should be. He finished as the 31st wide receiver in fantasy points last season and is currently going off the board in MFL10s as the 12th receiver off the board, pretty much where he was picked here. I do believe Doug Marrone will do a better job of getting the ball to Robinson, like he did for the last two games of the season when Robinson caught 14-of-24 targets for 229 yards. In the five games before that, Robinson had caught 11-of-32 targets for 105 yards. That’s good news, but Bortles is still not so good and there will be inconsistency.
Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders
Last season, Michael Crabtree saw 22 red-zone targets to just 14 for Cooper. Now, we add the big body of Jared Cook to the list and the red zone might not be Cooper’s friend yet again this year. Cooper seems like he would be a great end-zone target, but his 11 total touchdowns in two years aren’t showing that yet. I do expect the Raiders’ passing game to continue to get better, which includes Cooper of course, so a jump from last year’s numbers should be in order, but I’m still a bit skeptical.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
Nuk finished as the 36th-best fantasy wide receiver in a weak season for fantasy wide receivers last year, and now he is going off the board as the 11th receiver in MFL10s. Hopkins is a special talent and will be better than last year; I have no doubt. The trouble is, who in the heck will be throwing him the ball? If it’s Tony Romo, then sign me up. If it’s Tom Savage, cross my name off with a sharpie.
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams
And yet another underachiever from last season! Gurley hasn’t topped 100 yards rushing in 24 games, and he has a 3.43-yards-per-carry average over that stretch. The Rams have upgraded the offensive line, which is a good sign, but they’ll need to get a semblance of a passing game going to free up some space for Gurley, who has not been able to make plays without big holes since Week 5 of his rookie season. I’m staying away at his current ADP of 18th overall.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
Watkins is risky, but has also shown enough while healthy that he can be a stud in this league. The Bills re-signed Tyrod Taylor, which was a big boost for Watkins in my mind. Watkins healthy is a concern, but his upside is tantalizing.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots**
I just can’t quit Gronk, especially as his ADP has fallen from last year and his upside remains the same. Injuries are a concern, but when you have a player who is so far ahead of the rest of the field at his position, I’m willing to take the risk for that foot up.
For a refresher, check out Chet’s MFL10 Primer.
Also, check out our Fantasy Football Rankings.
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