By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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Below is a list of running backs who have had 10 or more rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line over the last two seasons and their respective success rates in scoring a touchdown. These, of course, are rough numbers since the attempt could come from anywhere between the one-inch line and the five-yard line, but they give us a good idea of who has gotten opportunities near the goal line and who has been able to take advantage of those opportunities.
Marshawn Lynch has the most attempts inside the five with 40, while second is DeMarco Murray with 33. That’s tremendous durability and consistency. Lynch’s touchdown rate is smaller than his competition, but he still has the most goal-line touchdowns over the last two seasons. The more attempts, the harder it is to keep that percentage up. And of course, this is why you are drafting Lynch early: his stability.
Eddie Lacy has the best percentage for anyone over 13 carries with 15 touchdowns scored on 26 attempts. Green Bay’s offense has been extremely efficient and Lacy is no exception. And with the Packers asserting that they will run more up-tempo this year, that bodes well for Lacy’s overall usage and adding in his efficiency will give you an increase in fantasy points.
Coach Marc Trestman was the first Bears coach to use Matt Forte as the goal-line back, and it helped his overall stats, but he remained inefficient with nine touchdowns on 26 attempts. The Bears look to use Forte again at the goal line, but I could see Jeremy Langford grabbing that spot this year as long as he makes the team.
Justin Forsett will not be the goal-line back as you can see with his 10 attempts and one touchdown. But that has been factored into his ADP or he would be a first-rounder. Forsett did lead the league in touchdowns last season from the opponent’s 20- to six-yard line. That’s where he’ll have to get his touchdowns, and with that offensive line and Marc Trestman getting him the ball through the air, I think he’ll once again get close to 10 total.
Stevan Ridley is the leader with a 61.5 percent TD rate, but he is injured and starting the season on the PUP list. The Jets have Chris Ivory as their starter and have given him 20 goal-line attempts over the last two seasons. He’s scored on seven of those for a “meh” percentage, but his skill set is well-suited for goal-line work. If Ivory were to go down, Ridley would be the most talented back on the roster, especially near the goal line.
It appears there was a reason Chip Kelly didn’t want McCoy as his goal-line back: his 36.4 percent success rate. Kelly wants efficiency; DeMarco Murray was more efficient, even with 11 more attempts. I expect Murray to see big chunk of those 21 goal-line attempts the Eagles had last season, which ranked them sixth in the league last year.
| Rank | NAME | Runs | TD | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stevan Ridley | 13 | 8 | 61.5% |
| 2 | Eddie Lacy | 26 | 15 | 57.7% |
| 3 | Andre Williams | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
| 4 | Knile Davis | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
| 5 | Joique Bell | 24 | 13 | 54.2% |
| 6 | Jamaal Charles | 25 | 13 | 52.0% |
| 7 | Matt Asiata | 20 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 8 | DeMarco Murray | 33 | 16 | 48.5% |
| 9 | Darren McFadden | 13 | 6 | 46.2% |
| 10 | Alfred Morris | 22 | 10 | 45.5% |
| 11 | LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
| 12 | Giovani Bernard | 16 | 7 | 43.8% |
| 13 | Jeremy Hill | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| 14 | Marshawn Lynch | 40 | 17 | 42.5% |
| 15 | Knowshon Moreno | 19 | 8 | 42.1% |
| 16 | Steven Jackson | 25 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 17 | Arian Foster | 15 | 6 | 40.0% |
| 18 | Frank Gore | 21 | 8 | 38.1% |
| 19 | LeVeon Bell | 29 | 11 | 37.9% |
| 20 | Fred Jackson | 24 | 9 | 37.5% |
| 21 | Lamar Miller | 19 | 7 | 36.8% |
| 22 | LeSean McCoy | 22 | 8 | 36.4% |
| 23 | Chris Ivory | 20 | 7 | 35.0% |
| 24 | Mark Ingram | 23 | 8 | 34.8% |
| 25 | Matt Forte | 26 | 9 | 34.6% |
| 26 | Zac Stacy | 18 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 27 | Montee Ball | 13 | 4 | 30.8% |
| 28 | Rashad Jennings | 23 | 7 | 30.4% |
| 29 | Ahmad Bradshaw | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
| 30 | Mike Tolbert | 17 | 5 | 29.4% |
| 31 | Ray Rice | 16 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 32 | Bernard Pierce | 17 | 4 | 23.5% |
| 33 | Ben Tate | 18 | 4 | 22.2% |
| 34 | Michael Bush | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
| 35 | Pierre Thomas | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
| 36 | Shane Vereen | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
| 37 | Justin Forsett | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
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