By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Today, I will bring you the 2019 Strength of Schedule for every NFL team. I’ve always been a fan of SOS despite its many shortcomings, but there are plenty of shortcomings. In the past, I’ve based SOS on multiple statistics from the previous season, but after working on that stat soup this season, I came to the realization I was building a camel instead of making soup. Too many statistics that could sway the numbers were built from outlier games. What I decided to do here is use Football Outsiders’ DVOA for defensive efficiency against the run and pass. Their ability to contextualize the statistics is superior to using raw stats. I did use DVOA in the past, but it was just one component. Simplifying SOS to just DVOA is the way to go in my opinion, but there are a few other statistics and methods I’m going to try and hopefully I can give you another angle on SOS in the near future.
But as you know, coaches, players, and schemes change over the offseason, so I’m not going to spit on your shoe and tell you my SOS is raining down infallible wisdom. Instead, I will look more at the outliers while reiterating that you don’t draft Eli Manning over Patrick Mahomes because he has an easier schedule. Strength of schedule should be used as a tiebreaker, a kind of background radiation that makes you a little keener than what radiation actually does to you.
What I have for you today is the DVOA for defenses against the run last season. You can take a look at a scaled-down definition of DVOA at the bottom of this article.
This season, I’m going to tweak how I use the strength of schedule in fantasy a bit. In fantasy, like most things, a quick start is often integral to a good finish. It isn’t 100 percent necessary, but it sure gives you more options and the upper hand in trade negotiations. And when looking at SOS, we are likely to see teams play closer to their 2018 ways early in the season rather than late. That pushes me to put more emphasis on strong matchups in the early season schedule. So, let us take a look-see at what teams have the easiest matchups against run defenses.
Baltimore Ravens
You really can’t ask for a better start to 2019 than the Ravens running backs. Five of their first six opponents ranked 24th or worse in run defense efficiency. That puts Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram in great positions to start off quickly, as they are likely to lead the team in rushing attempts. There are plenty of running backs in Baltimore, so the actual breakdown of usage is tough to get a handle on, but we can feel safe that they are the two who will benefit the most. The upside for Ingram will be capped unless he can see work as a receiver, but he’s currently going off the board as the 22nd running back in standard leagues and 23rd in PPR leagues. Unless his ADP rises significantly, he should be a strong fantasy play. Jackson is sitting around 19th in quarterback ADP, which is way too late for him. Even if he can’t throw the ball effectively, he’s still going to give you a high floor as a runner and his schedule is in no way an impediment going into the season.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have the best overall schedule for running backs and also get a great start to the season, with five of their first six games going against opponents ranked 25th or worse in defensive efficiency against the run. On the season, they have 10 of their 16 games against teams that ranked 23rd or worse. That’s great for the 49ers running backs, but which ones!? Right now, we can’t say with much certainty who will lead the way in San Francisco, but the growing consensus is that Tevin Coleman will go into training camp with the lead. That consensus is mainly based on Coleman being healthy for offseason work, while Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida weren’t. And even if Coleman does take the lead, he’s not going to get the usage of a top fantasy back as long as Breida and McKinnon are healthy. The schedule is promising, but you will have to balance how much stock you put into each of these guys in fantasy drafts. Waiting on the last of the three is one way to go, as all three of these players have good upside if given a shot this year.
Seattle Seahawks
The good thing about Seattle is that you know they are going to run the ball. That’s not good for Russell Wilson and his receivers, but it does mean that investing in Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny is a worthwhile endeavor. And when you look at their schedule, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for big usage on the ground. Their schedule doesn’t have much in the way of middle ground, as they face eight teams that ranked 25th or worse in defensive efficiency and seven teams that ranked 12th or better. The good news is that the first half of the season is easier, which means you could be sitting pretty mid-season and then be able to see where the schedule is taking you in terms of run defenses based on 2019 numbers.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City’s offense is one that can fluster any defense, but they will have tough run defenses, especially early in the season, as they take on Jacksonville, Baltimore, Houston and the Colts in four of their first six games. The good news is that Andy Reid is great at getting running backs in space in the passing game and Williams proved himself as a receiver last season. If we were looking for Williams to rush for 100 yards a game, we would need to look elsewhere, but we aren’t. This schedule isn’t good by any means, but for this offense, I expect them to not get shut down.
* DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team’s success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA “breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. … Football has one objective — to get to the end zone — and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player’s value or a team’s performance.”
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