By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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Today, I will bring you the 2019 Strength of Schedule for every NFL team. I’ve always been a fan of SOS despite its many shortcomings, but there are plenty of shortcomings. In the past, I’ve based SOS on multiple statistics from the previous season, but after working on that stat soup this season, I came to the realization I was building a camel instead of making soup. Too many statistics that could sway the numbers were built from outlier games. What I decided to do here is use Football Outsiders’ DVOA for defensive efficiency against the run and pass. Their ability to contextualize the statistics is superior to using raw stats. I did use DVOA in the past, but it was just one component. Simplifying SOS to just DVOA is the way to go in my opinion, but there are a few other statistics and methods I’m going to try and hopefully I can give you another angle on SOS in the near future.
But as you know, coaches, players, and schemes change over the offseason, so I’m not going to spit on your shoe and tell you my SOS is raining down infallible wisdom. Instead, I will look more at the outliers while reiterating that you don’t draft Eli Manning over Patrick Mahomes because he has an easier schedule. Strength of schedule should be used as a tiebreaker, a kind of background radiation that makes you a little keener than what radiation actually does to you.
What I have for you today is the DVOA for defenses against the pass last season. You can take a look at a scaled-down definition of DVOA at the bottom of this article.
This season, I’m going to tweak how I use the strength of schedule in fantasy a bit. In fantasy, like most things, a quick start is often integral to a good finish. It isn’t 100 percent necessary, but it sure gives you more options and the upper hand in trade negotiations. And when looking at SOS, we are likely to see teams play closer to their 2018 ways early in the season rather than late. That pushes me to put more emphasis on strong matchups in the early season schedule. So, let us take a look-see at what teams have the easiest matchups against pass defenses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I am all in on the Tampa Bay passing game this season despite their SOS, but they also have an inviting schedule. For the season, they have the fourth-best SOS against pass defenses while they also have the fifth-best schedule for their first four games, while Minnesota is the only team with a better first three games. The Buccaneers led the league in passing yards last season and Bruce Arians isn’t going to deter James Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard from doing their thing, especially since their defense is awful and will give up plenty of points. I’m all in on all four of these players and whoever between Andre Ellington and Bruce Anderson wins the receiving back competition. I also doubt I’ll try to trade high on any Buccaneers, as they are set up to fly all season, but if they get off to a hot start as they should and your overall starting lineup needs a boost, I could see making moves from a place of superiority.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings will look to balance their offense out a bit more with the run game this season, but they still have two of the best receivers in the game and their running back is a good receiver who will get plenty of targets. Plus, they get a great schedule to start the season, with five out of their first seven matchups against teams that ranked 25th or worse against the pass. The schedule gets tougher after that and we also saw Kirk Cousins and company slowed down in the second half last year, so they look like a great fit for a fast start and then possibly trading them away.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles start the season with the easiest pass defense schedule through four games, at Falcons, Lions, and at Packers weeks 2-4. But then it gets bad fast: at Vikings, at Bills and at home against the Bears in three of their next five matchups. The question is, can Carson Wentz get off to a hot enough start, bringing his receivers along with him, to put his team in a spot where he could deal some Eagles’ pieces before their insane stretch against the top pass defenses in the league? I can’t say I’m overly optimistic, especially with the Eagles spreading the ball around a lot this season, which will make it tough for anyone besides Wentz to dominate statistically. If you’re in a league that really values quarterbacks, it could be a gambit to risk, but I don’t think I’d want to.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have an interesting schedule against pass defenses, as they have a fairly easy start and end, with tougher games in the middle. As a side note, the Colts are in the Jaguars’ division and their game in Jacksonville in Week 17, when any fantasy league worth its weight, is already finished! But besides that, I love the Colts schedule. Last season, it was also fairly easy, and Andrew Luck went on a rampage. He doesn’t throw the ball a ton, but when they get near the goal line, he is the play-maker, and touchdowns are where it’s at in fantasy.
Green Bay Packers
I wish Aaron Rodgers didn’t face the Bears and Vikings four times this season, but he does, and it does hurt his overall upside. Thankfully he’s one of the best quarterbacks of all time and in an offense that shouldn’t be as vanilla as it has been under Mike McCarthy. I’m still high on their offense and I plan on targeting their receivers. If Rodgers drops in a fantasy draft, I’d take him, but we can’t expect him to dominate in these tough matchups. But, if he does falter with a tough schedule to start the season, I’m more than willing to target this passing game in trade talks as well.
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team’s success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA “breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. … Football has one objective — to get to the end zone — and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player’s value or a team’s performance.”
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