By Matt McGuire. May 21, 2009.
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We all know a major part of dominating your fantasy league is keeping tabs on the biggest potential sleepers and maximizing the value of your roster. Drafting those mid-rounders is a piece of cake, but can you destroy the rest of your league when it comes to late-round picks and free agent pick-ups?
When I look for big sleepers in fantasy football, there are two factors I like to isolate: upside and opportunity.
Here are eight wideouts/tight ends to keep tabs on and my final verdict on their fantasy value.
Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants: Most people are wary of rookie receivers. Until you read the article of the guy who said DeSean Jackson was going to be a highly productive player for Philly in his rookie year (me). I can project receivers to the next level and I think Nicks will be starting for the Giants next season. His extremely soft hands and his sharp routes mean he will see early playing time. My projection is 800 receiving yards and four touchdowns. WR1 or WR2 material? Hardly, but you can steal this top-50 WR in the late rounds. Mark my words: He will lead the all Giants in receiving yards.
Verdict: Draftable at 105+ overall (WR4/WR5).
Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis: The reason Bill Polian passed up on Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks in the 2009 NFL Draft was because of Garcon, whom he believes will emerge this season for the Colts. With Marvin Harrison gone, it is looking more and more that Garcon will start for Indy in 3-WR sets. Garcon has very little experience, but some potential upside in this offense. Keep him on your watch list, but I wouldn’t suggest picking him up yet.
Verdict: Watch List
Kenny Britt, Tennessee: Britt was my No. 2 receiver in the 2009 NFL Draft, but he couldn’t have possibly gone to a worse team when it comes to fantasy production. Still, he will battle Justin Gage to be the No. 1 receiver in Tennessee. LenDale White and Chris Johnson will eat up most of the goal-line carries, but Britt is deadly in the red zone. Tennessee’s passing game is anemic with Kerry Collins, so I advise you to keep Britt on the watch list until further notice.
Earl Bennett/Juaquin Iglesias, Chicago: When you trade for Jay Cutler, you are probably planning on throwing the football. The offensive line was upgraded this offseason with the additions of Kevin Shaffer and Orlando Pace. But who will emerge as a big receiving threat opposite Devin Hester? Iglesias and Bennett will battle in camp, and it is rumored that Iglesias will work in the slot. I was a big Bennett fan of him coming out of Vandy and he played with Jay Cutler there so we know the chemistry has already been developed. Keep a very close eye on these receivers in preseason, but because nobody is proven (in a crowded WR corps) we can’t draft them just yet.
Verdict: Watch List
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay: Nelson had a solid rookie season catching 33 balls for 366 receiving yards. Donald Driver’s base salary escalates to $3.9 million this year, so could he be a cap casualty? If Nelson emerges as the No. 2 guy in the Bay, it is very possible. Nelson has the talent to be a very viable fantasy option in the future. Aaron Rodgers will always put up the big numbers in my opinion, and I think Nelson is draftable at this point as a WR5/WR6.
Verdict: Draftable at 120+ (WR5/WR6) or Watch List
Josh Morgan, San Francisco: I consider San Fran’s offensive line to possibly hold back this team in 2009, but I can’t argue with Shaun Hill’s production last season. He had a 7.1 YPA and 4.5 touchdown percent. If you equate that out to 500 passing attempts over one season that equals 3,550 yards and 22 touchdowns. We will see how the passing game in San Fran changes now that Mike Martz is gone, but a No. 1 wideout needs to emerge. Morgan has the experience over Crabtree, and he is most ready to step in as “the guy.” Morgan is a huge sleeper whom nobody should turn their back on.
Verdict: Draftable at 105+ (WR4/WR5).
Brad Cottam, Kansas City: I do think Matt Cassell is the most overrated quarterback in the NFL, but I have to say finding sleeper tight ends is beyond difficult. However, the current No. 2 option in Kansas City opposite Dwayne Bowe is either Bobby Engram or Mark Bradley. Cottam is worth putting on the watch list in preseason. In Todd Haley’s spread offense, someone is bound to catch some passes, and Cottam will probably start by default in Kansas City.
Verdict: Watch List.
Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit: Pettigrew is a capable starting tight end this year in fantasy. Detroit didn’t draft him to just block. He is going to catch a lot of balls in this offense, and I think he is capable of 600 receiving yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. Rumors were several teams had him rated among their top 10 players on their boards. If you draft some amazing running back and receiver value picks in the mid-rounds of your fantasy draft, then don’t be scared to draft Pettigrew late as your starting tight end.
Verdict: Draftable at 130+ overall (TE1).
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