By Matt McGuire. May 16, 2009.
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We all know a major part of dominating your fantasy league is keeping tabs on the biggest potential sleepers and maximizing the value of your roster. Drafting those mid-rounders is a piece of cake, but can you destroy the rest of your league when it comes to late-round picks and free agent pick-ups?
When I look for big sleepers in fantasy football, there are two factors I like to isolate: upside and opportunity.
Here are eight running backs to keep tabs on and my final verdict on their fantasy value.
Ray Rice, Baltimore: Rice was a highly talented back coming out of Rutgers with great lower body strength, power and good cutting ability. Rice battled injuries as a rookie, but still averaged 4.2 yards per carry. It’s also important to note that 24 percent of Rice’s touches were receptions, so he has added value in PPR leagues. Considering Willis McGahee’s contract, I would not be shocked if he is cut before the season started.
Verdict: Draftable between 85 and 100 overall (RB4) or Rounds 7 to 9 in 12-team leagues.
Jerome Harrison/James Davis, Cleveland: This is a training camp battle to keep tabs on and throughout the preseason. It would not shock me at some point in the year for Cleveland that one of these young talents will overtake Jamal Lewis as the starting running back. Harrison averaged 7.2 yards per carry and had 12 receptions for 116 yards last season. James Davis is a talented rookie who fell in the 2009 NFL Draft for no apparent reason. Cleveland’s passing game will likely suck next year, so one of these backs could generate a lot of touches and be a fantasy sleeper. Wait to draft one of these backs until we can see what they do after two weeks of preseason games.
Verdict: Watch List
Glen Coffee, San Francisco: You don’t draft a running back in the second or third round without the intention of using him in his rookie season. Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, and Steve Slaton were big-time contributors as rookies as second- and third-round picks. Coffee has no competition to earn the No. 2 job in San Francisco other than undrafted free agent Kory Sheets, whom you should also have on your watch list. Without Mike Martz, I expect the running game to be more heavily emphasized in San Francisco. If Frank Gore gets injured, Coffee has potential RB2 value. Keep an eye on him in the preseason.
Verdict: Draftable at 110+ overall (Gore handcuff/RB5) or Watch List.
Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville: I don’t think Jennings is a legit fantasy sleeper for a few reasons. First, Maurice Jones-Drew is an elite running back in this league and should get 290-plus rushing attempts next season. This means at best Jennings will get 50-80 rushing attempts, which automatically doesn’t make him worthy of being on a fantasy roster. Secondly, Jennings does not have that elite speed to average a high yards-per-carry figure. The only way Jennings can be a fantasy option is if he steals all the goal-line carries in Jacksonville, which I doubt.
Verdict: Watch List.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
Of all of my fantasy sleeper running backs, I like Charles the most. First, we know he has the upside to average a high YPC with his speed and gamebreaking ability. Larry Johnson and the Chiefs front office do not seem to be getting along, and with his contract I would not be shocked if LJ’s is released at some point before the season begins. If Johnson is cut, the only competition Charles has is Kolby Smith. It is very possible Charles ends up with 240-plus carries and ends up being a complete steal in the late rounds.
Verdict: Draftable between 80 and 100 overall or rounds 7 to 9 in 12-team leagues.
LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia: Like I said earlier, you don’t draft a running back early without the intention of playing him. However, I think McCoy’s selection was more to be Brian Westbrook’s successor rather than a threat to take away 40 to 50 percent of Westbrooks’ touches. We need to watch to see how much McCoy is utilized in the preseason and how he performs. He has some handcuff value to Westbrook. In the end, I do not see him being a big contributor next season unless Westbrook misses games, which we all know can happen. Stash McCoy as an RB5 on your roster or nab him on your watch list.
Verdict: Draftable at 115+ overall (Westbrook handcuff/RB5) or Watch List.
Fred Jackson, Buffalo: I really do not understand why Marshawn Lynch is going off the board so early in fantasy drafts. His average draft position is 40.1 overall. Am I the only person who knows he is missing the first three games of the regular season? Jackson will have at it against two defenses that could potentially be weak in Tampa and New Orleans, both of which are at home. If Jackson becomes a stud, he might be the full-time starter in Buffalo and never look back. He should be considered a capable RB4 on your roster because you could end up with a steal. I wouldn’t suggest handcuffing Jackson to Lynch because Lynch is not an elite fantasy back, and therefore not worth to be deemed “handcuffable.”
Verdict: Draftable between 80 and 100 overall (RB4) or rounds 7 to 9 in 12-team leagues.
Shonn Greene, New York Jets: I felt Greene was the most overrated running back in the 2009 NFL Draft when you consider his age and the fact that had an outstanding offensive line at Iowa. I do not back off this sentiment. However, when it comes to fantasy production, I hold no grudges. If Greene can generate 200-plus carries, he could be a capable fantasy backup. I know two things about Green: 1) He will struggle turning the corner in the NFL and he is not an explosive back. 2) He might not be a three-down back because he does not have much experience catching the football.
If Thomas Jones continues to hold out and is cut, Greene might become a viable RB3. We do know the Jets love Greene because they traded up for him in the third round. At the moment, Jones is still on the roster, so we need to see how this plays out before solidifying his fantasy projection in August. Until things change, this verdict is based on Jones being the starting back for the Jets next season.
Verdict: Draftable at 115+ overall (RB5) or Watch List.
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