2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Seahawks at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks had a miserable game against the Rams. It’s wild that they managed to cover with Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. It just shows that you can handicap a game perfectly and still manage to lose. If I had any action on the Rams, I would have been way more frustrated than I already am.

Darnold won’t have the same issues in this game. His problem is that he crumbles under pressure, with his completion percentage dropping more than 30 percent. Luckily for Darnold, the Titans have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL. He’ll have all day to find Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed for big gains.

The Titans are also one of the worst teams at stopping the run, ranking in at 27th in that regard. This is obviously detrimental against a Seattle offense that loves to run the ball with multiple backs.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of things being detrimental for the Titans, it’s hard to imagine them having any sort of offensive success in this game for a variety of reasons. Cam Ward is the primary issue here, as he projects very poorly against the Seahawks.

The Broncos currently have the most pressures in the NFL, but the Seahawks have them beat on a pressures-per-game basis. They can overwhelm opposing quarterbacks, and that will be the case with Ward because he holds the ball so long in the pocket. It should not surprise you at all if I tell you that Ward is far worse when pressured as opposed to kept clean. When kept clean, he completes 66.4 percent of his passes on a 6.3 YPA, and he’s thrown for five touchdowns and three interceptions. When pressured, Ward completes 38.3 percent of his passes on a 4.9 YPA, and he’s thrown one touchdown and three interceptions.

Ward won’t be able to lean on the ground attack either. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have a nightmare matchup against the Seahawks, who happen to be ranked No. 1 against the run.

RECAP: When handicapping the NFL, you should always look for the marriage of matchup and spot. We had that two weeks ago when the Lions battled the Redskins, and we have that here in this contest as well.

The matchup edges are obvious. The Titans have an abysmal defense that won’t stand a chance against Seattle’s offense. Ward melts down under pressure, and the Seahawks get to the quarterback more often than anyone in the NFL. And Seattle’s elite run defense will put the clamps on Tennessee’s runners.

The spot favors the Seahawks as well. They’re coming off a loss and will be looking to rebound from this defeat. They don’t have anything to look forward to either because the Vikings are on deck.

Though the line may seem high, I don’t think it’s high enough. There’s no reason for the Seahawks to be favored by anything less than two touchdowns, so this will be a huge play against the Titans, who are now 6-24 against the spread since Week 1 of 2024.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Seahawks are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -12.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -14.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Not enough action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 70% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 10-17 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Titans are 30-23 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Seahawks -12.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .