2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Saints at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I didn’t know if we’d get an injury update on Puka Nacua so early this week, but we have one. Nacua is expected to practice and play this week. He wasn’t needed in the victory over the Jaguars in London, and, well, let’s face it: Nacua won’t be needed for this matchup either.

The Saints have a miserable defense. Their pass rush is pedestrian, with it averaging 14 pressures per game. The league average is about 20, so the Saints won’t be able to rattle Matthew Stafford very much, especially with Rob Havenstein due back as well.

Stafford will have all the time in the world to locate Nacua and Davante Adams for big gains. Meanwhile, Kyren Williams will have some success on the ground, though the Rams really needed to work on their poor short-yardage offense during the bye week.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints executed a quarterback change last week. Spencer Rattler was responsible for a couple of turnovers, which prompted the switch. Tyler Shough took over and wasn’t very effective at moving the chains, though he refrained from committing a give-away.

Shough is likely to start this game, but I don’t like his chances any more than I did Rattler’s. Shough is a reckless quarterback who will undoubtedly commit mistakes against a very strong Rams defense. Los Angeles generates about 23.7 pressures per game, and the Saints have a weakened offensive line as a result of center Erik McCoy’s injury. Shough will feel heat early and often, which will spell trouble for the 26-year-old rookie.

The Saints would love to run the ball to keep Shough out of trouble. There might be some hope here because the Rams struggled against opposing ground attacks during a couple of weeks. However, they’re ranked 11th versus the rush overall, so no one should be too optimistic about Alvin Kamara’s chances.

RECAP: If the Rams are focused, they’ll destroy the Saints. There simply is a huge talent disparity between the two teams. Los Angeles’ defense will dismantle the Shough-led Saints offense, while New Orleans’ defense won’t stand a chance against the Rams, especially with Nacua healthy again.

I had to write “if the Rams are focused” because of the circumstances. The Rams won an international game, and they’ve had an entire week to hear about how great they are. Following this game, they have to battle the 49ers and then the Seahawks. I can’t imagine that this game means all that much to them, considering that the two ensuing contests will basically decide the NFC West winner.

Also, if you’re wondering if the Rams will be aided with a week off, I’m not sure about that. Sean McVay is a great coach, but he’s just 3-5 against the spread following a bye.

Despite what I just said, I can’t back the Saints. The Rams are just too good, but I can’t bet them heavily because of how poor this spot is.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing stands out on the injury report, so no real changes to report.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Rams play the 49ers and Seahawks after this game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -12.

Computer Model: Rams -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Plenty of action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 82% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Opening Line: Rams -12.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.