2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Eagles at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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Week 5 Analysis: Aside from one game, Week 5 was pretty great. Unfortunately, the bad beats continued in this historic season.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Vikings, 3 units (win): You could argue that we got lucky with this one. I would then counter by pointing out that the Vikings lost two fumbles in Cleveland territory. Losing this one because of the two fumbles would have been a tilting way to start the day, but things worked out well for once.

Jets, 3 units (loss): Man, what the hell was this? How did the Jets not score often against Dallas’ awful defense? How did the Cowboys protect Dak Prescott despite missing four starting offensive linemen? This result makes me feel like looking at injury reports is a complete waste of time.

Colts, 5 units (win): I’m mad about this. We won five units here, but I completely forgot to bet the -20.5 alt line, which I planned on doing. Why did I forget? Because I was too preoccupied with the second half of the f**king London game, that’s why. These London games screw us all the time, one way or another.

Cardinals, 5 units (loss): I thought losing the Rams +3.5 on the blocked field goal returned for a touchdown was the worst beat of all time, but this may have been worse. The Cardinals were up 21-6 in this game when Emari Demercado broke free for a long touchdown run to extend the lead to 28-6 in the fourth quarter. Except, the f**king idiot dropped the ball shy of the goal line. Seven points were wiped off the board. This game would have been over at that point, but instead, the Titans had new life. And yet, the Cardinals appeared to end the game with an interception, but the intercepting player inexplicably dropped the ball, which was kicked into the end zone and recovered by the one Tennessee player in the area when there were way more Cardinals around the ball. How the f**k does this happen to us every week? These sorts of bad beats occur once, maybe twice per year, but it’s every single f**king week with us. Every week is a -$1,000 swing for us. Had the Cardinals rightfully covered, we would have won a grand, but instead we broke even. Every week, it’s the same f**king thing.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): It’s worth noting that I switched off three units on the Texans to bet three units on the Chargers. This was a dumb decision. I just assumed Jayden Daniels would be rusty in his return to action, but he certainly was not.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles better run the ball more than six times this week. Despite being ahead of the Broncos for most of the afternoon, Saquon Barkley was given just six attempts. This was inexplicable, and Philadelphia would be foolish to repeat this strategy again.

One obvious reason doing so would be foolish is that the Giants have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. We know that Barkley will be motivated to battle his former team for the second time, so I would expect a huge performance out of him.

Jalen Hurts may not have to do much in this game, but if he does, he’ll have an easy time dissecting New York’s flawed secondary, thanks to short-yardage opportunities. Also, the strength of the Giants’ defense is their edge rush, and Philadelphia can neutralize that with its great tackle play.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Eagles can thwart the Giants’ pass rush, New York won’t be able to do the same concerning Philadelphia’s pass rush. The Eagles have logged 98 pressures through five weeks, which includes the dismal Week 1 outing in which Jalen Carter didn’t play. Jaxson Dart isn’t protected well, so the Eagles will be able to hound the rookie quarterback.

It would be helpful for Dart if he had Malik Nabers at his disposal, but the talented receiver is done for the year. Darius Slayton also got hurt versus the Saints, so it’s fair to wonder how the Giants are going to be able to move the chains.

Establishing Cam Skattebo won’t work so well either. The Eagles are solid against the run, ranking 12th against it. So, while Skattebo won’t be completely stymied, he won’t have a ton of rushing success.

RECAP: I definitely like the Eagles. They’re the far better team, and they’re coming off a loss. Being the superior team gives them a huge advantage on a short week because the Giants won’t have enough time to formulate a great game plan to defeat a far superior opponent.

My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. Will the Eagles be focused? I think so, given that they jut lost to Denver, but I’m not quite certain. As a team with extensive playoff success, the Eagles care about winning in January and February; not October. So, even though the Eagles just suffered a defeat, I don’t think it’s a guarantee that they’ll perform up to their abilities, given that they’re battling such an inferior foe.

If I had strong conviction that the Eagles would bring 100 percent to this game, I’d make a five-unit wager on them. However, given that I’m not so sure about their effort level, I’m going to limit this bet to two units.

Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Carter’s status is unknown. If Carter sits out, I won’t have a bet on the Eagles, given that we’ve seen how bad Philadelphia’s defensive line is without him.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m confused about Cam Skattebo’s receptions number. It’s only 2.5, yet in the two losses since taking over as the starter, he has caught six passes in each of those games. The best number is over 2.5 +105 at BetRivers.

We’re going to parlay the Skattebo receptions number, Theo Johnson over 3.5 receptions, and Jaxson Dart over 37.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay can be boosted by 30 percent on FanDuel, and it pays $152.80. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was willing to bet the Eagles earlier in the week, but they’ll be without Jalen Carter and Landon Dickerson. As we learned from the Cowboys game, Carter’s absence is extremely crucial. Also, it’s worth noting that the Eagles haven’t won by more than seven against anyone all year. The sharp haven’t touched this game. I’m going to drop this from two units to 0.25. The reason for the 0.25 is because DraftKings is offering a $25 no-sweat bet for this game. The best line is -7 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are coming off a loss, but still may not be focused.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Decent action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 29 the last 35 meetings.

Jalen Hurts is 10-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Clear, 52 degrees. Light wind.