2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Bills at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted two live bets during the Chiefs-Jaguars game. I tweeted out that I was betting the Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes rushing overs, and both hit. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It was surprising to see the Bills lose a divisional game on national TV. Josh Allen played well, but wasn’t at his best. It was understandable why he wouldn’t have his best game, given the vast improvement of New England’s defense, led by Mike Vrabel. The Falcons are known as a team that doesn’t play defense well, but they’ve also bolstered their stop unit this offseason with some talented pass rushers.

The Falcons will be able to generate some heat on Allen, though I don’t think it’ll be enough to stop him. Allen is protected well on the edge now that Spencer Brown is back in the lineup. Allen, however, will face a challenge in the Falcons secondary, which is also greatly improved.

Furthermore, the Falcons happen to be better against the run than the pass. James Cook is coming off a dud outing, and I suspect that he’ll once again disappoint his fantasy owners.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: If you recall from last week, I was eagerly anticipating Matt Milano’s status for the Patriots game. Milano is the heart and soul of Buffalo’s defense, which is often far worse without him, especially against the run. When it was announced that Milano would be playing, I was more confident in Buffalo covering the spread.

What I failed to realize was that Milano wouldn’t be 100 percent in his return. Milano struggled in his first game back from injury, which was exactly what happened when he returned from his injury last year. It took him a couple of games to round into form. His ability to do so will be crucial, given that the Falcons love to run the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

The Bills have issues in their secondary as well, so they can’t exactly devote extra resources to stopping the run. If they have to do so, we may see Drake London pick up where Stefon Diggs left off Sunday night.

RECAP: I’d like to back the Bills for a big play coming off a loss, but they really aren’t playing up to their ability right now. I was willing to forgive them for their close calls against the Dolphins and Saints due to a lack of effort, but they were fairly beaten by the Patriots.

Buffalo’s defense isn’t at full strength right now. The team will play much better when Milano is 100 percent, and when Ed Oliver is able to suit up again. Right now, however, we’ve seen Spencer Rattler perform well against the Bills, which is obviously very problematic.

Then again, I’m not too excited to back an NFC South team outside of the division, especially against a superior opponent. I’m going to side with the Bills, but this won’t be a big wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After doing a lot of thinking on this game, I’m going to switch my pick to the Falcons. The Bills just aren’t playing well right now, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Very few teams run the ball better than the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matt Milano hasn’t practiced yet this week, which is obviously a bad sign for Buffalo’s chances of covering the spread.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There appears to be a bit of sharp money building on Atlanta. I wonder if that’s because of the Matt Milano news.

SAME-GAME PARLAYS: We’re doing something different tonight in honor of the double-header. Well, that, and the fact that DraftKings has a 35-percent profit boost for four legs across the two games tonight. We’re going with Tyler Allgeier over 30.5 rushing yards, James Cook under 71.5 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 70.5 rushing yards, and D’Andre Swift under 46.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $307.50 when boosted. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you didn’t see the news, Dalton Kincaid is a surprise inactive. That’s not a huge deal, but a deal nonetheless. The sharps are on the Falcons. If you want to tail them, the best line is +3.5 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -5.5.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 84% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 26-18 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Josh Allen is 13-8 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Bills -5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.