2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Lions at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs will be getting a boost next week, as this will be the last game they’ll be playing during Rashee Rice’s suspension. Rice will be a huge addition to a Kansas City offense that has bounced back after a very sluggish start.

You could say the Chiefs are getting a boost this week as well because the Lions could be missing several defensive players, including newly injured D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold. Reed has been excellent for the Lions this year, but he suffered an injury last week. Detroit’s coverage won’t be as good without bother cornerbacks, which has to be music to Patrick Mahomes’ ears because he already has to worry about a strong Detroit pass rush that has 103 pressures through five games this year.

Mahomes will have to do most of the work on his own because he won’t get much out of the running game. The Lions own a top-five ground defense, and it’s not like the Chiefs do much via their running game anyway.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Chiefs need a boost from Rice, the Lions could use one in the form of Taylor Decker returning from injury. Detroit just blew out the Chiefs, but allowed more pressure than usual on the edge because of Decker’s absence.

The Chiefs can also get after the quarterback consistently, so they’ll take advantage of Decker being out of the lineup as well. Detroit obviously has to worry about Chris Jones as well. Jones will be very problematic for an interior line group that lost two talented starters this offseason.

The Lions can make up for this pressure by running the ball and putting Jared Goff in favorable down-and-distance situations. However, the Chiefs are quite stout against the run, so I wouldn’t expect explosive results from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

RECAP: I’m not surprised the Lions are getting plenty of public attention this week. They’ve won four in a row, after all, while the Chiefs lost yet another game to drop to 2-3. Kansas City beat Baltimore a couple of weeks ago, but people have seen how bad the Ravens were versus Houston, so I imagine normal bettors will downgrade their opinion on the Chiefs.

I think this is a mistake. The Chiefs would have beaten the Jaguars had they not shot themselves in the foot on special teams repeatedly. They still have the best quarterback and the best head coach, and I like the duo to bounce back from a defeat. Meanwhile, the Lions, during their winning streak, have beaten the Bears, Ravens, and Bengals. We know the Bears and Bengals both stink, and the Ravens have since been exposed as frauds, so it’s fair to be skeptical about how good the Lions are.

This is a great spot to back the Chiefs. They’re coming off a loss, and their backs are against the wall as they try to avoid 2-4. They also have a big edge in the trenches because the Lions are down three offensive linemen.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I had a debate with Andy on this game. He loves the Lions, while I really like the Chiefs. You can listen to it on our show:

SATURDAY NOTES: What a huge difference between the two teams on the injury report. The Chiefs don’t have a single player with an injury designation. Not one. Conversely, the Lions have cluster injuries everywhere. Their two starting cornerbacks are both out. Their two starting safeties could be out, as Brian Branch was DNP on Friday, while Kerby Joseph has been ruled out. Taylor Decker once again didn’t practice at all. Alim McNeill was thought to be ready to return after practicing fully all week, but he was also ruled out. The Lions are a complete mess, so the Chiefs look even more appealing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s more money on the Lions than any team this week. People betting the Lions clearly haven’t seen their injury report.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t know why Josh Simmons is out for the Chiefs. This is a concern, but I’m sticking with Kansas City, albeit for two units. This is a classic sharps versus public game where the public loves the Lions and the sharps are on the Chiefs. There’s no -2.5 -110 out there, but we can get -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs are coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.

Computer Model: Lions -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Lions are a massively publicly backed underdog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 88% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 102-28 SU, 68-60 ATS (54-46 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 14-10 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.