2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Redskins at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: There are some major injury question marks for both teams entering this game. Beginning with the Redskins, we don’t know if they’ll be with Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin this week. The best I can give you is that a Daniels fan account said that he’s expected to return, but that doesn’t mean anything. McLaurin, meanwhile, is week to week, so he probably won’t be available because this would only be his second absence.

Marcus Mariota had one good performance and one shaky showing thus far, which tracks based on the level of competition. The Raiders have a poor defense, so Mariota was able to dissect them with ease. Conversely, the Falcons rank in the top 10 of EPA, so Mariota naturally had a greater issue moving the chains against them. The Chargers are sixth in defensive EPA, so Mariota will have similar issues.

Daniels, however, would normally give the Redskins a better chance to score. However, he may not be 100 percent upon return from injury. Daniels could struggle in his first week back in action, much like Brock Purdy did versus Jacksonville this past week.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers have injury issues of their own. They suffered a major loss last week on the eighth offensive snap when Joe Alt was carted off the field with an ankle sprain. He’s expected to be out for several weeks. With Rashawn Slater already sidelined, the Chargers couldn’t block the Giants whatsoever. Justin Herbert threw two interceptions while under heavy pressure, handing the Giants 11 free points on short fields.

Though Slater and Alt won’t be available this week, the Chargers can at least create a game plan during the week to counter this blocking issue. They’ll need to do so because the Redskins have logged 81 pressures through two weeks.

The Chargers can counter by establishing Omarion Hampton, who is coming off a breakout game versus the Giants. The Redskins were just gashed by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, so perhaps Hampton can pick up where the two Atlanta backs left off last week.

RECAP: I can’t give you a concrete pick just yet because we don’t know Daniels’ status. I imagine I’ll be heavy on the Chargers if Mariota starts again, provided this spread isn’t too large. If it’s Daniels, I still may be on the Chargers, depending on any news we hear from him in practice.

Check back later for an update!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Redskins have some good news on the injury report with Jayden Daniels and Sam Cosmi practicing fully. Given that Daniels is already full in practice, I’m going to cancel my bet here because there’s a good chance Daniels is 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jayden Daniels and Deebo Samuel will play, while Terry McLaurin and Sam Cosmi will not. As mentioned earlier, I’m not expecting Daniels to be 100 percent against a Charger team that will be looking to bounce back from their ugly loss to the Giants.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m planning on having three units on the Chargers. It looks like the sharps are betting them as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Chargers at -2.5, but not at -3. You can still get a -2.5 line, albeit for -122 at FanDuel. It’s worth paying up to -127 for a three in the NFL. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Chargers -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 55% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 12-4 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.