2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Giants at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants didn’t have the best offensive showing last week. They scored 21 points, but 11 of those came on Justin Herbert interceptions. Still, there was some incredible energy at the Meadowlands that we haven’t seen in some time. Jaxson Dart was electric with his dynamic scrambling ability.

Dart composed himself well for his first start, especially when considering the level of talent he was battling. The Chargers rank sixth in defensive EPA, yet Dart refrained from making any major mistakes and picked up some key third downs. This matchup will be even easier for him because the Saints rank 29th in defensive EPA. A huge reason for that is the Saints’ inability to get to the quarterback. They have only 41 pressures through four games, whereas the Chargers have 74 in as many contests.

Dart will have so much more time in the pocket than he had in his initial start. The downside is that he won’t have Malik Nabers at his disposal, but the Saints can’t cover anyone, so Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson project well. Cam Skattebo doesn’t have as promising of a matchup, but he’ll be able to pick up some tough yards.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Giants have some major defensive flaws, but the one thing they can do extremely well is generate heat on opposing passers. They have 83 pressures in four games, so they’ll be able to hound Spencer Rattler, who won’t have at least one starting offensive lineman in this game.

Rattler is coming off a semi-decent performance in Buffalo, but he was battling a Bills defense missing two key players. The Giants just forced Justin Herbert into two turnovers that gave them 11 free points, so it’s not very far-fetched to expect the same from Rattler.

The Saints, however, can keep this from happening by keeping it safe on the ground. While the Giants have a great pass rush, they are very poor at stopping the run. Omarion Hampton just had a monster game against them, so Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller should be able to pick up where he left off.

RECAP: “When garbage plays garbage, take the points.”

Yes, we’ll be taking the points again. And besides, I’m not quite sure if the Giants are complete garbage with Dart at the helm. It was only one start, so perhaps I’m overreacting, but Dart gave the Giants a huge spark that could carry into this game. A big reason why the Giants are 1-3 is because Russell Wilson was atrocious in two losses. If the Giants had better quarterbacking in those contests, they could have perhaps gotten a victory, or at least kept it close against the Redskins and/or Chiefs.

I’m going to ride the Dart train and side with the Giants. However, given that we don’t have much data on Dart, and given that last week’s performance could be a flash in the pan, I’m hesitant to put any money on New York.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Giants are a public dog, as casual bettors are backing them for the Jaxson Dart hype. I don’t want to go against this hype, only because it means siding with the dreadful Saints.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was wondering why there was sharp money coming in on the Saints recently, and it could be because the Giants have some defensive injury issues. Dexter Lawrence looks unlikely to play this game, which would be a huge loss for New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the questionable players are playing. The Giants will have Dexter Lawrence, while the Saints will have Taysom Hill and all of their offensive linemen, save for Cesar Ruiz, who was already ruled out. The sharps are on the Saints, and if you didn’t catch it, I switched my pick to New Orleans. I’m not betting this game, however. If you want to tail the sharps, the best line is New Orleans -1.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Giants -1.5.

Computer Model: Giants -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of money on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 82% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.