2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Dolphins at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 2-10 heading into Week 4.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Redskins +2.5

Packers -6.5

Panthers +5.5

Steelers +2.5

Bills -12.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, and 1-4 in Week 4. No one is going to have money for Christmas presents at this rate.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Ravens -3.5

Cowboys -2.5

Colts -6.5

Lions -9.5

It’s early, so I have to wonder if the public knows about Lamar Jackson’s injury.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins were able to move the ball effectively against the Jets on Monday night. Even after Tyreek Hill suffered a brutal leg injury, Miami continued to advance the chains via De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and the newly acquired Darren Waller.

Given how poor Carolina’s defense is, the Dolphins should be able to sustain this level of success. The Panthers were missing their top two edge players last week, and they can’t defend anything in the first place. They have a meager 46 pressures on the year, and that’s with D.J. Wonnum playing three games. The Dolphins have a miserable offensive line, but Carolina’s pass rush is so poor that Tua Tagovailoa will have plenty of time in the pocket for a change.

Tagovailoa may not need to do much anyway. Achane should be able to rip through a Panthers run defense that has allowed some big games to opposing rushers this year.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It hasn’t been pretty for the Panthers on this side of the ball this season. Even in their 30-0 win over the Falcons, they weren’t able to generate 250 net yards of offense. Bryce Young looks like a lost cause, as his inability to see over the line of scrimmage continues to be a problem.

However, Young could have a rare strong performance in this game. Miami’s struggles in the secondary are well documented. Storm Duck’s replacement is not going to be able to slow down Tetairoa McMillan. Young won’t have to worry about the Miami pass rushers very much either, as the Dolphins have just 53 pressures through four games.

Like the Dolphins, Carolina will be able to pound the ball. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t had much of a chance to run this year because of the constant deficits, but the Dolphins displayed a major weakness to the run in their battle against the Jets on Monday night. Hubbard will be able to exploit this liability.

RECAP: To quote our Wednesday WalterFootball After Dark co-host Andy Iskoe, “When garbage plays garbage, take the points.” That is what we’ll be doing in this game.

The Panthers are a home underdog to the Dolphins even though these seem to be two equal teams. You could argue that the Dolphins are better with Hill, but he won’t be playing in this game. I don’t see why the Panthers couldn’t “upset” Miami, especially given that they’ll have one more day of preparation time.

Regardless, I’m not betting this terrible game. Let’s move on to more competitive contests.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I won’t be betting this game unless there are a crazy number of injuries.

SATURDAY NOTES: Part of the reason why the Panthers couldn’t be competitive with the Panthers is because they were down their top two edge rushers, D.J. Wonnum and Patrick Jones. The Patriots kept running at their replacements, and they had a lot of success doing so. Carolina won’t have that issue this week. Jones has no injury designation, while Wonnum, while questionable, managed to practice fully on Friday. This makes the Panthers somewhat intriguing, but I still can’t get there as far as betting Carolina is concerned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: D.J. Wonnum is active for the Panthers, which is a big deal, considering how bad the edge play was last week versus New England. I would side with the Panthers, and that’s where the sharps are going. The best line is +1 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -1.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 59% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Panthers -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.