2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Seahawks at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Week 3 Analysis: I threw around the idea of writing a book about my bad beats last year, but didn’t do it for a couple of reasons. I forgot all of the specific games, and with two kids under four, I just didn’t have the energy during my time off from running this Web site.

Based on what has transpired through three weeks, I almost have to publish this book next summer. I can’t recall a three-week skid like this where we’ve been punished relentlessly by bad beat after bad beat. I thought that suffering back-door covers/spread losses on three last-minute drives in Week 2 was tough, but that was nothing compared to what transpired this week.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Colts, 3 units (win): A game we won that we handicapped perfectly. Those are a rarity these days.

Falcons, 5 units (loss): The Falcons were a complete no-show. They were smelling themselves following their national TV win over the Vikings, so they assumed they could show up to Carolina and just win. If anyone ever tells you that teams don’t look ahead early in the season, please just point to this result. I don’t know if I coud have seen this coming because a win over the Vikings didn’t seem like a huge deal to me, but it clearly was for the Atlanta players, perhaps because it occurred on national TV.

Viking, 5 units (win): It was nice that we didn’t have to worry about one of our five-unit picks.

Rams, 3 units (loss): This is one of the worst bad beats I’ve ever experienced. We had the Rams +3.5. They were up 26-7 in the third quarter. The Eagles came back and took the lead, and yet the Rams were still covering on the final play of the game when they attempted a field goal to win. But of course, the kick had to be blocked and returned for a touchdown by fat imbecile Jordan Davis, who should have just fallen on the ground because a Ram player could have caught up to him, swiped the ball away, and then returned it for a touchdown.

Jets, 3 units (win): We had a back-door cover go our way in this game, but then the Buccaneers put themselves in position to kick a front-door field goal because Baker Mayfield had to run 33 yards on a play in the final minute. Then, the Buccaneers should have gone for it on fourth-and-1, but they took a delay-of-game penalty to kick a field goal, as if those are a given. I’m complaining a lot about a win, but this shouldn’t have been so stressful.

49ers, 5 units (loss): This was ridiculous. We once again lost a top player to injury early on one of our top plays. It was Jalen Carter and Xavier Worthy in Week 1, and in this game, Nick Bosa got hurt before the second quarter. And yet, the 49ers still would have covered the game, except they took a safety in the fourth quarter because idiot punt returner Skyy Moore took a fair catch at the 6-yard line, and then Dominick Puni had one of the worst holding calls you’ll ever see in the end zone. I don’t know how you have a holding penalty in the end zone when the line of scrimmage is the 6-yard line, but whatever. I guess we’ll just lose another swing of $1,000 plus the vig because some draft bust with a girly name that has two Y’s in it doesn’t know when to call for a fair catch.

Can you tell that I am pissed by how this season has gone so far? I didn’t even discuss losing the Ashton Jeanty prop because he had an 18-yard run in garbage time, or how I had CeeDee Lamb in my single-entry DraftKings lineup that otherwise did very well. I swear, I am cursed.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals suffered a big loss to their offense on Sunday. That would be James Conner, who was knocked out for the year on a run he had in the third quarter. Some will expect Trey Benson to just step in and perform similarly, but while he’s explosive, he’s not as smart of a runner as Conner, meaning that he doesn’t always see the correct running lane. He also doesn’t do what Conner can in the passing game. We saw Emari Demarcado drop a big pass because of Conner’s absence.

The Seahawks are stout against the run – they rank fourth against it – so I would expect even less from Benson than normal. It’ll be up to Kyler Murray to carry the team on his shoulders, which is what he tried to do against the 49ers before his teammates betrayed him with some drops.

Murray could have some success getting the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr. if Devon Witherspoon is out again, though Harrison will have to avoid dropping passes. Murray will have more luck targeting Trey McBride, who will devour a Seattle defense that can’t stop tight ends at all.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Like the Seahawks, the Cardinals are also stout against the run. In fact, they’re even better, ranking third. They held Christian McCaffrey in check as a rusher, even stuffing him near the goal line on one crucial fourth-quarter sequence.

If Kenneth Walker can’t get going, Sam Darnold will be tasked to beat Arizona’s secondary, which shouldn’t be too difficult. The Cardinals have some glaring injuries in the defensive backfield, which the 49ers couldn’t quite take advantage of because of the backups playing at quarterback and wide receiver.

Darnold will thrive targeting Jaxson Smith-Njigba, the emerging Tory Taylor, and perhaps even the decrepit Cooper Kupp. Of course, this is when he’ll have time in the pocket. The Cardinals are averaging about 22 pressures per game, so they could get to Darnold and rattle him a bit.

RECAP: The rule for the Cardinals is to bet them when they’re playing bad teams because they tend to beat up on them. The other rule is to fade them when playing good teams. They’re just 2-9 against good teams since Week 1 last year.

But what about mediocre teams like the Seahawks? That’s obviously a gray area. Now, the argument could be made that the Seahawks are a good team, but they were inferior to the 49ers in Week 1, so I have some issue classifying them as a Group B team. Still, they could be Group B, which would explain why they swept Arizona last year.

I’m obviously torn on this game, so I won’t be betting it. However, I will be siding with the Seahawks at the moment.

Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Will Johnson will be out, so the Cardinals will once again have issues in their secondary. The Seahawks have owned the Cardinals, and I suspect that will continue.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Trey McBride has averaged 61 yards per game this year, so it makes sense that his prop would be around 62.5 for this game. Except, the Seahawks are the worst team at defending tight ends. McBride exploded for two big games against Seattle last year, and he should do the same in this matchup. The best number is over 62.5 receiving yards -112 at FanDuel, but we can boost half our bet to +134. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

DraftKings has a 33-percent boost for parlays on this game. We’re going with McBride over 64.5 receiving yards, Kyler Murray over 28.5 rushing yards, and Trey Benson under 56.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $174.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Each team is getting back a key player each – Devon Witherspoon for Seattle; Paris Johnson for Arizona – so the injury situation isn’t too significant outside of Will Johnson being sidelined for the Cardinals. I still would lean toward Seattle, but not with any sort of betting conviction. The sharps bet the Seahawks when they were underdogs. The best line is Seattle -1 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -2.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Lots of action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (273,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road team has won 14 of the past 20 meetings, excluding a 2016 tie.

Cardinals are 51-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.