2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Cowboys at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: None.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Aside from J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams looks like the worst quarterback of the six in the first round of his draft class. It’s obviously way too early to deem him a bust, but it’s looking like things are trending that way.

Williams, however, will have a golden opportunity to prove his doubters wrong, at least temporarily, in this game. The Cowboys have a putrid defense that can’t get any pressure on the quarterback. They have just three sacks through two games and allowed Russell Wilson to look like John Elway. Think they miss Micah Parsons?

The Bears will be able to ram D’Andre Swift into Dallas’ front successfully. The Cowboys were already poor against the run heading into the year, and they haven’t been any better since the Parsons trade. Cam Skattebo looked great against them last week, so Swift figures to have an even better performance.

DALLAS OFFENSE: If you think the Cowboys have a weak pass rush, consider that the Bears have an even worse one. They also have three sacks through two games, and they’ve accumulated only 13 pressures thus far. The Panthers have a poor total in the lower 20s, so that 13 figure is pathetic.

The Cowboys should be able to protect Dak Prescott despite center Cooper Beebe being sidelined. Prescott will light up a secondary that is devoid of talent outside of Jaylon Johnson.

Like the Bears, Dallas will be able to pound the ball in this game. Javonte Williams isn’t very good, but he’s taken advantage of weak matchups thus far. He should continue to do so against Chicago’s weak defensive line.

RECAP: This is quite the overreaction. The Bears were favored by three over the Cowboys on the advance line. Thanks to the Week 2 results, the Bears are now one-point underdogs. “But how can you ignore the Week 2 results?” you may ask. Well, think about it this way: The Bears battled a much better team in the Lions on short rest, while the Cowboys took on an inferior opponent with extra rest. If you put the Cowboys against the Lions on short rest, it’s likely that the result would have been a blowout, which was the case in the 2024 meeting between the two teams. And if you had the Bears go against the Giants, we probably would’ve seen a similar shootout.

So, why then, should this line have moved by four points off the key number of three? It makes no sense. The Bears are equal to the Cowboys, who will be missing their starting center. They shouldn’t be home underdogs, although it’s not like we’re getting amazing value at +1 because I think the line should be Chicago -1.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still think there’s too much line movement in this game, but if you bet the Bears, you need Caleb Williams to win a game for your bet to win. That’s not a great proposition.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears have some serious cluster injuries in the secondary. Their top outside cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, and top nickel corner, Kyler Gordon, are both out. They’re also missing key backup Jaylon Jones. The Bears have just four healthy cornerbacks for this game, and two of them are non-talents named Nick McCloud and Josh Blackwell. I am switching my pick to Dallas.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned Saturday, I changed my pick, but I don’t like the Cowboys enough to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears will have D’Andre Swift, but they’ll be missing so many defensive players. The sharps are on the Cowboys, perhaps because of this reason. The best line is Dallas -1 -110 at FanDuel and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.

Computer Model: Bears -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 53% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -2.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 77 degrees. Light wind.