2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Raiders at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from the summer:

I compiled tons of hate mail in last week’s Jerks of the Week entry, entitled the The Mina Kimes Fanboy Club.

Here, we have some more I didn’t post in that article:

I wish I had time to answer all of these beta losers, but I’ll do it here.

Rich: I never lived in my parents’ basement. It always flooded. When I lived with them, I did work out of my bedroom, so take that!

Tuba: Why did you mention Jason Kelce? Jason Kelce lives in Cleveland Heights.

Dave: Thank you, I appreciate the compliment!

Charm City: So, I was reputable until I trolled Mina Kimes, but now I am not reputable. Logic!

Stop Being Wack: The loser crying about a troll post is pointing out that someone is fragile. Interesting projection.

Josh: I made the site in 1999; not 1998. Get your facts straight!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: As you can tell by this line, Jayden Daniels will not be playing. Daniels suffered a knee sprain versus the Packers – one of many injuries suffered in yet another Thursday bloodbath, as Roger Goodell just sat back and counted his money while completely abandoning player safety – so he’ll be out for 2-3 weeks. Marcus Mariota will start this game.

Mariota will look to pick up where Justin Herbert left off on Monday night. The Raiders have a talented defensive front, but their back seven is a disaster. Their cornerbacks are especially weak, so Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel will be able to get open easily.

The Raiders will have to counter this by pressuring Mariota heavily. Luckily for Mariota, he has Laremy Tunsil to slow down the Raider pass rush a bit. Mariota can obviously use his legs to get out of pressure as well.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Geno Smith was putrid on Monday night, throwing three interceptions and missing several open receivers, including Brock Bowers for a potential touchdown in the fourth quarter. Mina Kimes called Smith a top-10 quarterback, but this was the usual garbage coming out of ESPN that we’ve come to expect.

Though Smith was awful, it wasn’t all on him. Las Vegas’ offensive line couldn’t block the Chargers, even after Khalil Mack left with an elbow injury. The Redskins have a moderate pass rush that has accumulated 46 pressures so far this year. In context, the Chargers have 40 pressures through two games.

The Raider offensive line also can’t open up running lanes for Ashton Jeanty. The rookie runner is doing all that he can, but he’s helpless when he’s getting hit three yards behind the line of scrimmage. Washington just held Josh Jacobs in check, so it’ll be able to limit Jeanty.

RECAP: I like betting on good teams with their backup quarterbacks because they’re extremely undervalued. This spread is a classic example of that. I personally made Washington an eight-point favorite, but this line is only -3.5. If my number is correct – and we know it’s close because the advance line was -7.5 – then the sportsbooks adjusted this line by 4-5 points because of the quarterback change. That’s a lot for one player, even for one as great as Daniels. Mariota is a competent backup, so it’s not like the Redskins are going with someone like Brodie Croyle or Clayton Tune.

I loved the Redskins at -3. I still like them at -3.5, but not as much. It helps though the Raiders are in a very tough scheduling spot. They played late on Monday night and will have to travel across the country on a short week. Pete Carroll has done well in early start times, but this one is different.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Redskins have yet to rule out Jayden Daniels, but they’ve also said that he won’t practice until Friday. Anything could happen, but the smart money is ruling out Daniels because of how low this spread is.

PLAYER PROPS: Ashton Jeanty has yet to top 50 rushing yards in a game yet, but his over-under is 56.5 in this contest. The Raiders can’t block, so they’ll have issues with a rested Washington front that surrendered only 3.6 yards per carry to Josh Jacobs last Thursday.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not going to bet this game. I’m going to transfer these three units to another game. After thinking about it, I don’t want to fade a Pete Carroll-coached team after such a blowout loss. The sharp money coming in on the Raiders doesn’t help matters.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As I noted on Saturday, I have no interest in this game. The sharps bet the Raiders at +3.5, but not so much at +3. The best line is Redskins -3 +101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Redskins will be playing hard for their backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -7.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Perhaps the public doesn’t know about Jayden Daniels’ status yet.

Percentage of money on Washington: 60% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Pete Carroll is 17-10 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Redskins are 13-26 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 73 degrees. Light wind.