2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Jaguars at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Someone went back and checked my NFL Draft Grades. I find it funny when people criticize these, as if NFL general managers are flawless all the time with their selections. Still though, this was an odd one because I got the Josh Rosen re-grades correct when every blue check on Twitter was campaigning for Rosen to get more chances.

Here’s another from Bob:

Should I reply to Bob now and ask him what he thinks about my original grade now that Young is playing well? Do you think he’ll now criticize my re-grade? Bob’s not the smartest guy, so I don’t know how he would react.

Changing topics, I replied to this cat lady:

Take a look at how deranged her response is:

Wow, I really struck a nerve there. She proved my point that cat ladies should not be allowed to vote.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I imagine some people are going to be fooled leading up to this game. Will Levis has posted some pretty stats in recent weeks, particularly when throwing touchdowns to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. You’re going to see a high ownership on Levis and his receivers in DFS because of the numbers he has accumulated. He’ll be expected to keep pace against Jacksonville’s horrible defense.

The problem with this thinking is that most of Levis’ production has come against teams that weren’t interested in competing, whether it’s because it was garbage time, or the opposing team was caught in a flat spot. Levis has great ability, but he’s also very reckless with the ball. He also stands in the pocket for an eternity. The Jaguars have some talented edge rushers who could get to him as a result.

This can all be countered, however, via the run. The Jaguars have maintained one of the league’s worst rush defenses in recent weeks. Tony Pollard, who is capable of going the distance whenever he touches the ball, figures to have a big game.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Speaking of going the distance whenever a running back touches the ball, Brian Robinson Jr. did this in the matchup against the Titans. This was mildly surprising because the Titans have been stout against the run all year. However, Tennessee has had so many departures via injury and trades that it’s really beginning to catch up with them.

The Jaguars weren’t able to run the ball very well last week, but that could change with Tank Bigsby. That’ll help Mac Jones, who is expected to start the rest of the way with Trevor Lawrence dealing with multiple maladies, including the crushing hit he took from Azeez Al-Shaair last week.

Jones starting against the Titans would have been an automatic fade early in the season when the Titans had some great defensive personnel, including two shutdown cornerbacks in Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed. Both cornerbacks have been out for quite some time, however, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg because Tennessee has also seen safeties and linebackers land on injured reserve. Jones, as a result, could look like a functional quarterback.

RECAP: I’d like to quote Andy Iskoe, our picks video co-host on Thursday nights: “When garbage plays against garbage, take garbage plus the points.”

That’s what I’ll be doing in this game. I wish we could fade Jones, but we’ll have to wait another week. Going against terrible quarterbacks versus good defenses is usually a lucrative strategy, but the Titans don’t have a good defense. They did to start the year, but they’ve lost so much personnel to injury this season. They currently rank 27th in adjusted defensive EPA.

Besides, who is Levis to be laying a field goal over anyone? The Titans couldn’t even beat the Patriots at home by more than three. Why would they defeat the Jaguars by a larger margin?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Titans might get back Chidobe Awuzie, but it’ll be too little, too late for them. They have plenty of other injuries as well, including T’Vondre Sweat, who was DNP on Wednesday with a shoulder. Sweat’s absence would really open things up for Jacksonville’s running game.

PLAYER PROPS: I was concerned with betting the Tony Pollard over last week despite the positive matchup because the game had the potential to be completely lopsided. That turned out to be the case, but it won’t be in this game. Pollard should be able to rip through Jacksonville’s poor run defense The best number is over 68.5 rushing yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans are going to have Chidobe Awuzie on the field for the first time since Week 3. However, T’Vondre Sweat and Roger McCreary both failed to practice all week, and Tennessee is going to be down multiple linebackers. I don’t think the cluster injuries at linebacker are enough for me to bet on the Jacksonville with Mac Jones.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans are down some key defenders in Roger McCreary, Kenneth Murray, and Jerome Baker. T’Vondre Sweat will play, and that was the big questionable player. The sharps bet the Jaguars down to +3 in most places. The best line is +3.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -2.5.

Computer Model: Titans -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 62% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Titans have won 12 of the past 17 meetings (Jaguars won 3 of last 4).

Opening Line: Titans -4.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Chance of rain, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.