2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Bengals at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Dallas, otherwise known as the seventh layer of Hell! In tonight’s game, the Satan spawn known as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Cincinnati Tigers. Guys, I’ve been telling you that I’ve been campaigning to broadcast nothing but games with my Philadelphia Eagles because as the head honcho here, I feel like I have a lot of clout. Instead, the network executives spit in my face. I can’t believe they’re making me broadcast a game with the Satan spawn. Don’t they know about me being the head honcho!? Don’t they know about my clout!?

Emmitt: Thanks, Golbez. It are very great to hear that you has a cloud. In my family, we has a pet dog, a pet cat, and a pet shrimp. I never hearded of anyone who has a pet cloud before. Are pet cloud dangerous animal? I does not want the cloud bite my grandchildren whenever my bastard son Emmitt Snow Jr. going to have sexual with ginger wilding and then get pregnancied.

Reilly: Emmitt, are you stupid, or something? How can I possibly have a pet cloud? Mother won’t let me have any pets! She says I’m too young and too irresponsible. Can you believe it? I’m 73, so maybe I can have a pet dog or a pet cloud when I turn 80.

Tollefson: Reilly, you could easily find a loophole. My township has a rule where we can’t have any pets. But I want a pet. So, what I do sometimes is I get a dog collar and put it on one of my female slaves, and I pretend she’s a female dog. It’s great! I walk her, and everything. I don’t clean up her poop though, so please don’t tell anyone in the association.

Reilly: Tolly, who am I going to tell? Sounds like the people running your association are jerks if they’re not letting you use one of your female slaves as your pet dog. Speaking of, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have an exclusive report saying that Jerry Jones has taken over as owner as the Dallas Cowboys. I’m joined by a nerdy guy with glasses. Who are you, and how did you come to run a country?

Bill Gates: Hi, I am Bill Gates, and I run a small island off the coast of South Korea. I am here to address some allegations that were brought forth last week. Someone on this telecast said last week that I bring little boys with me who aren’t my kids to games with me, which is not true. What is true is that I have little boys who play games on my island, and I watch them play games with each other. I do this while wearing masks depicting various animals. There is a huge difference, and if these false accusations continue, I will be forced to pursue legal action.

Charissa Thompson: Oh no, not legal action. Wait, if you’re the ruler of another country, how will you sue in an American court?

Bill Gates: Pursuing legal action has nothing to do with courts in my country. It means that I will inject you with my experimental vaccines. I’ve injected lots of African children with these vaccines, which are totally safe, but I will save the untested ones for those who accuse me of these vile actions.

Reilly: Hey Billy boy, can I borrow one of your untested vaccines so I can inject Charles Davis to see what happens? And if I can’t, maybe Camel Toe Harry can use some of her political power to get these vaccines for me! Can you do it, Camel Toe Harry!? Whoa, Camel Toe Harry, you’re looking pretty rough.

Kamala Harris: I grewww uppp innnn midddlee classss fammlly. I’vveee beeennn uunbburrb-hic-burrnedd bbyyy whaasss beeeen hic! Heeyeyy I juusss wannn ssaayyy I loovvee yoouu guuyss I dunnn ccaarre iffff I lossss eleleccshunn buuttt whhooss thiisss hheeasdd hooncchooo eeveerryyssoonesss beeeeennn ttalkiinn bbboiuut hhahaahahahahaaha hic!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, or should I call her Drunkala, is the drunkest person anyone has ever seen, no one has ever seen anything like it, and it’s quite sad really, Kamala was a pathetic opponent, and she’s an even more pathetic drunk, probably the worst drunk anyone has ever seen, frankly, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, and she’s nothing like Pelosi, who is the best drunk anyone has ever seen, Pina Colada Pelosi is what I call her, which is a great nickname, by the way, the best nickname anyone has ever heard, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, and Pina Colada Pelosi is such a great drunk that she makes these great stock trades when she’s drunk, no one has ever seen anything like it, although she’s nothing like Trump, who makes the best trades, and the best deals anyone has ever seen, but Trump’s not drunk like Pina Colada Pelosi, but if he were drunk, he would be the best drunk anyone has ever seen.

Wolfley: DONALD, NO DISRESPECT TO YOU OR PINA COLADA PELOSI, BUT MY THIRD UNCLE, A VITAMIN E TABLET WITH DEVIL HORNS FOR EYES AND AN ANVIL FOR A TONGUE IS THE BEST DRUNK ANYONE HAS EVER SEEN. WHEN DRUNK, HE CAN FIT INTO AN ENTIRE PHONE BOOTH AND RECITE THE ALPHABET BACKWARD, WHICH IS HARDER THAN IT SOUNDS BECAUSE THE ALPHABET ON MY HOME PLANET IS 716 LETTERS.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, can you please convince Bill Gates to give me an untested vaccine so I can inject Charles Davis, my arch enemy? Please, please, please!?

Jay Cutler: There’s no way I’m taking anything from that creepy dude. No thanks.

Reilly: Aww, New Daddy, you really care about me not to take vaccines from Bill Gates! That’s so sweet!

Jay Cutler: On second thought, Billy Boy, give that stupid kid whatever he wants.

Reilly: New Daddy, you’re not fooling me! Thank you for buying me this shady guy’s vaccines!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about vaccines, Kevin. Let’s discuss some vaccines, Kevin. There’s the flu vaccine, Kevin, which everyone knows about, Kevin. Then there’s RSV vaccine, Kevin. What do you think about the Tdap vaccine, Kevin? Let’s get to the shingles vaccine, Kevin. We can now chat about the Hepatitis B vaccine, Kevin. Don’t forget the Covid vaccine, Kevin, which is not really a vaccine, Kevin. And then there’s Chickenpox vaccine, Kevin, which you’re very familiar with, Kevin, because you’re a giant chicken, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, WHEN YOU’RE ASLEEP, I’M GOING TO SNEAK OUT OF THE HOUSE SO I DON’T GET INTO TROUBLE WITH MOTHER, AND THEN I’M GOING TO INJECT YOU WITH SOME SHADY VACCINES SO I CAN FINALLY DESTROY YOU! We’ll be back after this!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Though the Bengals lost to the Steelers last week, they were able to produce 38 points. That looks like an impressive output against the Steelers until it’s considered that seven points came on a pick-six where George Pickens fell down, while another seven came in garbage time. The Bengals moved the chains well in the opening half, but fizzled after intermission.

Cincinnati’s second-half foil was the pressure the Steelers were able to produce with T.J. Watt, who forced a strip-sack at one point. The Bengals will face similar issues in this game with Micah Parsons back from injury. Dallas’ defense was a shell of its former self without Parsons, but the elite edge rusher’s return has changed everything. Neither the Redskins nor the Giants could move the chains at all against the Cowboys with Parsons on the field.

Now, the Bengals are obviously much better offensively than the Giants, so they won’t be completely dead like New York was on Thanksgiving. They should be able to take advantage of a positive matchup, which would be Dallas’ poor run defense. Chase Brown has been excellent since becoming the full-time running back, sprinting out of the backfield as if he were shot out of a cannon. He’ll have some big gains during Cincinnati’s touchdown drives in this game.

DALLAS OFFENSE: As great as Cincinnati’s offense is, its defense is even worse. The Bengals happen to be ranked dead last in defensive EPA, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who saw Russell Wilson throw for 400-plus yards against them last week.

The Bengals can’t stop anything. Their secondary is a complete disaster, and Dallas had an injection of talent return to the 53-man roster with Brandin Cooks now healthy. Jake Ferguson may come back as well. Ferguson’s return will be important because the Bengals are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to stopping tight ends, as evidenced by what Pat Freiermuth accomplished last week. CeeDee Lamb also figures to be a big producer in this contest.

One area in which Cincinnati has improved a bit is stopping the run. This was a real weak point earlier in the season, but the Bengals have done well versus the rush in many games since. I wouldn’t expect a big game out of Rico Dowdle like we saw on Thanksgiving as a result.

RECAP: This is the third of three falling knives. Everyone expects the Jets and 49ers to rebound each week because they’re perceived as being much better than they are. The same applies to the Bengals. People constantly expect them to snap out of their funk, begin winning, and make the playoffs. It’s not happening.

Cincinnati is terrible. There’s Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, but that’s it. The Bengals have nothing else going on for them. They have issues blocking, while their defense is atrocious. Cincinnati’s defense is ranked dead last in the NFL in terms of adjusted EPA. And just look at the results. Save for a blowout win over the hapless Raiders, the Bengals haven’t won by margin at all. Granted, they’ve barely won, but they were up just 10-7 against the Giants before a bogus touchdown at the end, and they needed an injury to Deshaun Watson to beat Dorian Thompson-Robinson by seven. The Bengals have kept both games against the Ravens close, but they’ve also been blown out on several occasions.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been better in recent weeks, stemming from Parsons’ return to the lineup. The offense still sucks with Cooper Rush, but Parsons’ return has catapulted Dallas’ defense up to third in adjusted EPA. The Cowboys can rush the passer very well and should be able to disrupt Burrow enough to give their offense a chance to win the game against the NFL’s worst defense.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cowboys win this game, by the way, because it’s already happened. The Bengals played at the Cowboys starting Rush, and they lost outright. This occurred back in Week 2 of 2022 when Rush upset Cincinnati. Sure, the Bengals are known for their poor starts, but that Cincinnati team still had its defensive studs. The 2024 Bengals are a hollow husk of that squad, so they could certainly lose once again to Rush on the road.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no injury report yet, but the sharps took the Cowboys down from +6 to +5.5, which is not a surprise, given how poor Cincinnati’s defense has been.

SATURDAY NOTES: CeeDee Lamb returned to practice Friday. The Cowboys, however, didn’t have Tyler Guyton or Zack Martin in either practice so far. The same applies to Orlando Brown, whose absence would be huge versus Micah Parsons.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was disappointed to see that Tyler Guyton and Zack Martin are out, but Orlando Brown is going to be out as well, so maybe it’s a wash with Micah Parsons on the other side of Brown’s backup.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I’m going to post more about this on Tuesday when I discuss all my high-unit picks, but I need to reevaluate what I’m doing after that horrible Sunday. I made two asinine picks with the Bears and Chiefs, and I also got off the Buccaneers, whom I loved earlier in the week. This game reminds me of Chicago-San Francisco where we have a collapsing spread – Cincinnati -6.5 was the look-ahead – with a talented team coming off a loss. The 49ers were -6.5 on the look-ahead and were -3 by kickoff after being humiliated on national TV. Cincinnati’s loss wasn’t as bad, but the team still suffered a defeat at home to a big rival. This line has gone from +6.5 to +5, so we are getting some value with the Bengals. However, there’s a chance Cincinnati quits because it’s basically eliminated from the playoffs, so I still think Dallas might be the right side. Either way, I’m dropping the unit count from five to three even though the sharp money is coming in on the Cowboys at the moment.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Chase Brown has become a big part of Cincinnati’s passing attack ever since Zack Moss went on injured reserve. He’s cleared 30-plus receiving yards in each game following the injury, and yet the prop is only 26.5. The best number is over 26.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

We’re going over to FanDuel for our same-game parlay because they have much better odds. Brown’s receiving yards is 27.5, but that’s OK. We’re going to match that with Jake Ferguson over 38.5 receiving yards, Rico Dowdle over 15.5 receiving yards, and KaVontae Turpin over 14.5 receiving yards. Ferguson is back, and Cincinnati struggles against tight ends. Dowdle could catch more passes than usual because of the offensive line injuries. And Turpin has seen an expanded role and is always a threat to go the distance whenever he touches the ball. This $25 parlay pays $269.55 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have brought this spread down from +6 to +4.5, as they’ve been betting the Cowboys aggressively. The sharps were on the Bears and Jets, before you get too excited. Still, I’d favor the Cowboys despite what I wrote above. The best line is +4.5 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -6.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 54% (250,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Joe Burrow is 41-22 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 18-9 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.