NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
2025 NFL Picks: 25-18-1 (-$760)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 21, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

Week 2 Analysis: We should have had a great Week 2. Unfortunately, we lost three games worth 10 units – plus the vig – because of last-minute drives.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Redskins, 3 units (loss): We had two bad picks in Week 2, and this was one of them. I don’t understand why the Redskins were so bad on Thursday night. Maybe the Packers are just that great.

Patriots, 4 units (win): It looked like the Patriots were going to blow a 12-0 lead because of a punt return touchdown, but they scored on a kickoff right after that.

Jaguars, 5 units (loss): This one really hurt. The Jaguars led the whole game, but failed to cover +3.5 because Liam Coen went for it on fourth-and-medium rather than making it a six-point game, and then Jake Browning drove down the field in the final minute with the help of a bogus pass interference call. In addition to losing the five units, this defeat prevented Tom and I from being 8-2 in the Circa Millions through two weeks.

Cowboys, 3 units (loss): The other bad pick. Nay, a horrible pick. I don’t know what I was thinking with this one.

Rams, 3 units (win): The Rams trailed at halftime, but were dominant after intermission.

49ers, 5 units (win): I still can’t believe this spread was only -3.

Panthers, 3 units (loss): The second of three games in which we were burned in the final minute. The Panthers converted a fourth-and-16 to some guy named Brycen Tremaine to beat us. Disgusting.

Texans, 2 units (loss): This wasn’t three units, but I’m posting it because it was the third time in 24 hours that we were beaten on the final drive. A few hours later, we lost on Dont’e Thornton over 25.5 receiving yards even though he had a 20-yard catch on the opening drive, so that’s three units in total.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Dolphins had a players-only meeting ahead of Week 2, but that didn’t help their defense at all. They allowed the Patriots to move up and down the field on them. The good news is that they didn’t surrender a score on every possession, but New England still posted 26 points (seven came on a kickoff return).

If the Dolphins couldn’t stop the Colts or Patriots, what’s going to happen against the Bills? Miami’s secondary is a complete mess – especially with the great Storm Duck nursing an injury – so Josh Allen will be able to throw all over the Dolphins. Keon Coleman, who had a letdown Week 2 after a great first game, should be able to rebound.

The Dolphins haven’t been great against the run either. Jonathan Taylor and Rhamondre Stevenson both had solid performances against them, so imagine what James Cook will be able to do.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins at least had a better offensive performance than they did in Week 1, but it’s not like they had anywhere to go but up. They managed just one score in garbage time versus the Colts, but they tallied 20 points versus the Patriots (seven came on a punt return).

Despite the offensive “improvement,” Tua Tagovailoa still didn’t play well. He had numerous horrific misfires and struggled when his first read was taken away from him. You can bet that the Bills will planning to take Tagovailoa’s first read away as well, and they’ll be able to generate way more pressure than the Patriots did, thanks to the addition of Joey Bosa.

One injury to watch for is to Matt Milano. The Pro Bowl linebacker is questionable for this game. His absence would allow De’Von Achane to break some big gains, which Achane might be able to do anyway.

RECAP: I’m kicking myself for not betting the Bills on the advance line. They were listed at -8.5, but quickly moved to -9.5 and then -10.5. Now, they’re nearly favored by two touchdowns.

A line of 12.5 may seem like a lot, but I don’t think it’s high enough. I made this spread -16.5. The Bills are one of the top three teams in the NFL, while the Dolphins could easily be the worst. They’re 0-2 after getting blown out and losing by six at home, and yet they’ve yet to play an above-average team or better. Buffalo is a huge step up in competition compared to Indianapolis and New England.

If the situation weren’t bad enough for the Dolphins, they also have to deal with playing on just three days of rest. Thursday and international games benefit the better team because the inferior team won’t have ample preparation time to formulate a game plan to defeat the superior foe. I don’t need to tell you that the Bills are the better team in this matchup. They dominated the Dolphins in a Week 2 Thursday contest last year, and this will be a repeat of that outcome.

Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to drop my unit count to two because the Bills won’t have Matt Milano or Ed Oliver. I still like them, but it’s definitely not ideal that they’re missing two great defenders.

PROMOS: FanDuel has a 50-percent profit boost on this game, up to $50. DraftKings has a 50-percent profit boost up to $100. BetMGM has a no-sweat bet up to $20.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: De’Von Achane had 67 and 56 receiving yards versus Buffalo in the two meetings last year. Tua Tagovailoa just won’t have enough time to throw, so he’ll have to dump off passes to Achane. The best number is over 39.5 receiving yards -112 at FanDuel.

BetRivers has a no-sweat first touchdown scorer promo, up to $10. We’re going with Keon Coleman +1100. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FanDuel has a no-sweat SGP token available for up to $25. We’re going with Achane over 39.5 receiving yards, Ray Davis over 23.5 rushing yards, Achane under 52.5 rushing yards, and Bills moneyline. This $25 parlay pays $129.71. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

For more on why I like these parlay legs, check out our WalterFootball.com Videos page.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprises on the inactives list. I still like the Bills for a couple of units, though there’s some sharp money that came in on the Dolphins at +12.5 and +12. The best line is -11 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -16.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -15.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Equal action early. Late money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 19 of the last 24 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: A couple of weeks ago, one of our After Dark Show co-hosts, Evan Daniel, called that Cam Ward would take the most sacks in the NFL this year. Well, after two games, Ward has taken 11 sacks. He’s on pace to be sacked 93 times, which would break the all-time NFL record by a mile. David Carr currently has the record at 76.

Ward has had the misfortune of battling the Broncos and Rams thus far, but it doesn’t get much easier against the Colts. Indianapolis flooded the backfield against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so they could do the same againt Ward. The Colts have also done a good job of taking away the opposing No. 1 read, so Ward won’t be able to go to Calvin Ridley very often.

The Colts are stout against the run as well. Tony Pollard ran well against the Rams’ ground-challenged defense last week, but he won’t have as much success versus a front comprised of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Titans limited the Broncos to 20 points in Week 1, leading many to believe that they have a great defense. We discovered that this was nonsense last week, with the Rams scoring 33 against them.

The Colts, who have not punted yet this year, should be able to pick up where the Rams left off in Week 2. The Titans have some poor linebacker play, so Indianapolis should be able to figure out how to beat that with Tyler Warren, who has quickly become the focal point of the offense. This should be a big game for Warren, who is a tremendous talent. Michael Pittman Jr. will also bounce back now that he won’t have to deal with Patrick Surtain II.

Jonathan Taylor will join in the fun with a big performance as well. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum did a number on the Tennessee defense last week, while R.J. Harvey blasted off for a 50-yard run in Week 1. Taylor will dominate.

RECAP: We faded the Titans last week and will be doing the same thing this week. Tennessee is not a team that can contend with average or better teams yet with Cam Ward being incredibly inconsistent and the offensive line struggling to block. Yes, the Week 1 game against Denver was close, but the Broncos self-destructed with dumb mistakes. It’s easy to say that after a blowout victory over Miami and a win over the Broncos, the Colts are average at the very least, meaning that the Titans can’t contend with them under normal circumstances.

All things being even, the Colts should be able to win this game fairly easily. We’re even getting solid line value with them; I made this spread Indianapolis -5.5, so -3 or even -3.5 is a bargain. My only concern is that the Colts are in a poor scheduling spot. They’re coming off a thrilling, last-second victory in the Battle of the Horses and have to take on the Rams next week. This is a divisional game, but the Colts could still take Tennessee lightly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Colts still look good to me. Sharp money has moved the line in favor of Indianapolis, but it’s not like we lost any key numbers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tennessee’s offensive line could be in big trouble. J.C. Latham is out again, while Kevin Zeitler is questionable after just a limited practice Thursday and a DNP on Friday. The Colts, meanwhile, will be getting Laiatu Latu back from his Week 2 absence.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprises on the inactive lists. The sharps have been betting the Colts since Saturday evening. The best line is Colts -5.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Colts are coming off a thrilling win in the Battle of the Horses. They play the superior Rams next week.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.5.

Computer Model: Colts -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennesee: 55% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts. History: Colts have won the last 4 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 86 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 1-4 heading into Week 2.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Vikings -3.5

Cowboys -4.5

Saints +4.5

Panthers +6.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1 and 1-3 in Week 2. A rough start, to say the least.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots +1.5

Bengals +3

Panthers +5

Redskins -3.5

Eagles -3.5

It’s early, so I have to wonder if the public knows about Jayden Daniels’ injury.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: We bet Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year at 16/1 odds – per our NFL Betting Futures page – and that wager is looking pretty good right now. Robinson was dominant against a strong Minnesota defense on Sunday night, albeit one that didn’t have Andrew Van Ginkel. Robinson didn’t even handle the full workload, yet he nearly tallied 150 rushing yards.

Robinson could be even better this week. The Panthers’ defensive struggles are well documented. They can’t stop the run at all, so if Robinson is given a full workload, he could approach 200 rushing yards.

Despite Carolina’s struggles against the run, the biggest issue isn’t even the run defense. The Panthers produce no pressure on the quarterback. Aside from right tackle, the Falcons have a solid offensive line that will be able to keep Michael Penix Jr. clean. Penix may not be able to rely on Drake London very much because of Jaycee Horn, but he’ll be able to target Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Though the Panthers are better offensively than defensively, they still have big problems on this side of the ball, mostly stemming from Bryce Young. The former No. 1 overall pick still can’t see over the line of scrimmage and was a turnover machine early in last week’s game. Young turned the ball over twice in the opening quarter and gave the Cardinals 10 free points.

The thing is, Young didn’t even battle a tough defense. The Falcons aren’t known for having a tough defense, but they limited the Buccaneers to 260 net yards and 4.6 yards per play in the opener and then shut down the Vikings. They’re better this season for a couple of reasons. First, they’ve improved their pass rush with Leonard Floyd and two first-round rookies. Second, they have a rising star next to Jessie Bates at safety. All of this is bad news for Young.

Chuba Hubbard will also have some bad news. The Falcons have a strong ground defense, so Hubbard won’t have much running room. They’ve shut down Bucky Irving and the Minnesota running duo, so containing Hubbard shouldn’t be much of a problem.

RECAP: I can’t believe the Panthers covered last week. That was a disgusting loss. Carolina trailed 27-3, but the Cardinals fell asleep and allowed three touchdown drives in garbage time, with the third possession featuring a third-and-16 conversion to someone named Brycen Tremaine. Horrible.

The Panthers should have been blown out twice by the Jaguars and Cardinals. The Falcons are just as good as those teams, if not slightly better, so they should have no issues taking care of business in this game, especially with this contest being a divisional matchup.

Something I like with the Falcons is that they run the ball so well. This will make milking the clock easier for them than it was for Arizona. We saw Atlanta just suck the life out of the clock late versus Minnesota, so it could do the same to the Panthers, who are far worse against the run.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Falcons remain a top play. Something I didn’t mention about the Panthers is that their center is out. This can only help Atlanta’s improved pass rush.

PLAYER PROPS: I thought we’d see Bijan Robinson’s rushing yardage prop closer to 90, or even 95. I don’t understand how it’s only 81. Travis Etienne ran for 143 yards against them in Week 1. The best number is over 81.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers are known as having one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but that’s no longer the case. They lost two blockers – Robert Hunt, Austin Corbett – to injured reserve. Hunt and Corbett were their second- and third-highest-rated blockers according to PFF, so they’ll be missed, especially in this matchup againt Atlanta’s enhanced pass rush.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps had bet the Falcons all week, but for some reason, there was some other sharp action that came in on the Panthers at +5.5 on Saturday evening. Perhaps those people were waiting for a +6, which never came. The best line is -4.5 -109 at Bookmaker, but FanDuel has a 50-percent profit boost for any game. I’m going to use that here just in case anything else pops up. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -1.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Panthers are a publicly backed home dog.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 54% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Falcons have won 14 of the last 22 meetings.

Raheem Morris is 3-7 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 81 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from the summer:

I compiled tons of hate mail in last week’s Jerks of the Week entry, entitled the The Mina Kimes Fanboy Club.

Here, we have some more I didn’t post in that article:

I wish I had time to answer all of these beta losers, but I’ll do it here.

Rich: I never lived in my parents’ basement. It always flooded. When I lived with them, I did work out of my bedroom, so take that!

Tuba: Why did you mention Jason Kelce? Jason Kelce lives in Cleveland Heights.

Dave: Thank you, I appreciate the compliment!

Charm City: So, I was reputable until I trolled Mina Kimes, but now I am not reputable. Logic!

Stop Being Wack: The loser crying about a troll post is pointing out that someone is fragile. Interesting projection.

Josh: I made the site in 1999; not 1998. Get your facts straight!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: As you can tell by this line, Jayden Daniels will not be playing. Daniels suffered a knee sprain versus the Packers – one of many injuries suffered in yet another Thursday bloodbath, as Roger Goodell just sat back and counted his money while completely abandoning player safety – so he’ll be out for 2-3 weeks. Marcus Mariota will start this game.

Mariota will look to pick up where Justin Herbert left off on Monday night. The Raiders have a talented defensive front, but their back seven is a disaster. Their cornerbacks are especially weak, so Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel will be able to get open easily.

The Raiders will have to counter this by pressuring Mariota heavily. Luckily for Mariota, he has Laremy Tunsil to slow down the Raider pass rush a bit. Mariota can obviously use his legs to get out of pressure as well.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Geno Smith was putrid on Monday night, throwing three interceptions and missing several open receivers, including Brock Bowers for a potential touchdown in the fourth quarter. Mina Kimes called Smith a top-10 quarterback, but this was the usual garbage coming out of ESPN that we’ve come to expect.

Though Smith was awful, it wasn’t all on him. Las Vegas’ offensive line couldn’t block the Chargers, even after Khalil Mack left with an elbow injury. The Redskins have a moderate pass rush that has accumulated 46 pressures so far this year. In context, the Chargers have 40 pressures through two games.

The Raider offensive line also can’t open up running lanes for Ashton Jeanty. The rookie runner is doing all that he can, but he’s helpless when he’s getting hit three yards behind the line of scrimmage. Washington just held Josh Jacobs in check, so it’ll be able to limit Jeanty.

RECAP: I like betting on good teams with their backup quarterbacks because they’re extremely undervalued. This spread is a classic example of that. I personally made Washington an eight-point favorite, but this line is only -3.5. If my number is correct – and we know it’s close because the advance line was -7.5 – then the sportsbooks adjusted this line by 4-5 points because of the quarterback change. That’s a lot for one player, even for one as great as Daniels. Mariota is a competent backup, so it’s not like the Redskins are going with someone like Brodie Croyle or Clayton Tune.

I loved the Redskins at -3. I still like them at -3.5, but not as much. It helps though the Raiders are in a very tough scheduling spot. They played late on Monday night and will have to travel across the country on a short week. Pete Carroll has done well in early start times, but this one is different.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Redskins have yet to rule out Jayden Daniels, but they’ve also said that he won’t practice until Friday. Anything could happen, but the smart money is ruling out Daniels because of how low this spread is.

PLAYER PROPS: Ashton Jeanty has yet to top 50 rushing yards in a game yet, but his over-under is 56.5 in this contest. The Raiders can’t block, so they’ll have issues with a rested Washington front that surrendered only 3.6 yards per carry to Josh Jacobs last Thursday.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not going to bet this game. I’m going to transfer these three units to another game. After thinking about it, I don’t want to fade a Pete Carroll-coached team after such a blowout loss. The sharp money coming in on the Raiders doesn’t help matters.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As I noted on Saturday, I have no interest in this game. The sharps bet the Raiders at +3.5, but not so much at +3. The best line is Redskins -3 +101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Redskins will be playing hard for their backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -7.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Perhaps the public doesn’t know about Jayden Daniels’ status yet.

Percentage of money on Washington: 60% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Pete Carroll is 17-10 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Redskins are 13-26 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 73 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: “No Cookie” Jordan Love has popped up as one of the favorites to win MVP. Love has been great so far this year, but I find this strange because the Packers are as great as they are because of Micah Parsons. If anyone on the Packers should be MVP, it should be Parsons.

Parsons will have a great matchup in this game if the Browns won’t have right tackle Jack Conklin again. Conklin missed the Baltimore game, and it was costly for Joe Flacco, who saw lots of pressure on the edge. The Browns already have a sketchy left tackle situation with Jedrick Wills gone, so if Conklin is sidelined, Parsons and Rashan Gary will tee off on Joe Flacco, forcing more turnovers.

It’ll be difficult for the Browns to run the ball as well. The Packers lost an interior defensive lineman in the Parsons trade, yet they shut down the two Detroit running backs in the opener. If they could keep Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in check, they’ll have no issues limiting Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Don’t take my Parsons MVP chatter as me saying that Love hasn’t been great this year. Love sliced through the Detroit and Washington defenses with ease despite missing some personnel. This matchup, however, will prove to be more difficult.

The Browns have a great defense. They’ve limited their two opponents to about 383 combined net yards, and it’s not like they’ve battled horrible offenses. They’ve taken on Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, so they are battle tested. They have been stout versus tight ends, which is very noteworthy because Tucker Kraft has been such a big part of Green Bay’s aerial attack and will continue to be so with Jayden Reed injured.

It’ll be difficult for the Packers to run the ball as well. The Browns just put the clamps on Derrick Henry, who failed to even reach 25 rushing yards against them in a game in which the Ravens were ahead for most of the afternoon. Josh Jacobs doesn’t stand much of a chance.

RECAP: If accured yardage happened to be any indication, the Browns would be 2-0 right now. They’ve outgained their opposition by about 300 total yards, yet they’re 0-2. Turnovers have been a huge issue.

I don’t see why the giveaway rate would change. The Packers have an elite, ballhawking defense that will force Flacco and the mistake-prone receivers into turnovers. Cleveland’s great defense will do what it can, but the Packers will ultimately score enough points to potentially get the cover.

I can’t say I have much of an interest in betting this game. Eight points is a lot to lay against an elite defense, especially with a team that could be looking ahead to battling Dallas next week. However, I don’t want to back the Browns against one of the top teams in the league. I’ll pick the Packers for office pool purposes, but I won’t be wagering on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not much new here. A bit of sharp money has shown up on the Browns, dragging them down to 7.5. The metrics say Cleveland is undervalued, but those valuing those metrics should just consider the Browns to be a turnover machine.

PLAYER PROPS: Josh Jacobs’ number is way too high at 78.5. Derrick Henry didn’t even reach 30 rushing yards against Cleveland’s run defense. Combined, Henry and Chase Brown logged 66 rushing yards versus Cleveland, so how is Jacobs supposed to get to 79? The best number is under 78.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re considering backing the Browns, please consider the status of their offensive line, which has to go up against Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary. Jack Conklin, who missed Week 2, is questionable to play after being limited all week. Now, Joel Bitonio, the team’s top-rated blocker, is questionable after failing to practice all week with a back injury. I would still side with the Packers, but I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers had good news on the injury report with Tucker Kraft and Zach Tom playing today. The Browns, meanwhile, won’t have Jack Conklin again, though Joel Bitonio is playing. This favors the Packers, obviously, but the sharps are betting the Browns. The best line is Green Bay -7 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Packers could be a bit flat in this game. They’re coming off two big wins and have to battle Dallas next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.5.

Computer Model: Packers -14.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 51% (153,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 59-41 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 76 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Both starting quarterbacks will be sidelined in this game. The Bengals obviously took a huge hit from losing Joe Burrow, but the Vikings certainly did not suffer a big downgrade. In fact, going from J.J. McCarthy to Carson Wentz could be an improvement, based on how bad McCarthy has been in seven quarters this season.

While McCarthy couldn’t connect with his receivers, including Justin Jefferson outside of a couple of occasions, Wentz should be able to do so. Wentz isn’t as great as he once was back in 2017 when he was the MVP frontrunner before getting hurt, but he has the arm talent to dissect a horrible Cincinnati defense that couldn’t even contain the Browns in Week 1. Wentz can also scramble very well, which is an underrated part of his game.

The Vikings will be able to trample Cincinnati’s ground defense, too. Aaron Jones is banged up, but Jordan Mason projects very well against a Bengals unit that couldn’t keep Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten in check last week.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals can’t feel as optimistic with Jake Browning at quarterback. He’s a huge downgrade from Burrow. He’s a solid backup, but he’s not nearly good enough to cover up all the deficiencies on Cincinnati’s roster.

One such deficiency is the offensive line. The unit couldn’t block the Jaguars last week, so it doesn’t stand a chance against the Vikings, especially if Andrew Van Ginkel is able to return to action after missing Week 2. A heavily pressured Browning could commit some turnovers.

Running will be more difficult as well because the Vikings will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage than usual. This is a huge boon for the Vikings, who struggled versus Atlanta’s ground attack last week.

RECAP: One of my favorite betting angles is to back a good team with a backup quarterback against a team with a non-elite defense. We can obviously say that the Bengals don’t have an elite defense. But are the Vikings a good team? I think it’s possible. They were 14-3 last year, and while they’ve looked sluggish thus far, a lot of that has been the result of McCarthy being terrible. Injuries haven’t helped, so we’ll see who’s available. Christian Darrisaw’s presence would be huge.

You might be wondering about the Bengals also having a backup quarterback, but they’re not a good team. They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and they also can’t block at all. Browning won some games in 2023, but that Cincinnati defense had D.J. Reader, Sam Hubbbard, and Chidobe Awuzie. All of those guys are gone. Also, the Vikings have a very good defense, so none of this applies to Cincinnati.

Given that the Bengals are a bad team starting a backup quarterback, the Vikings should be favored by way more than three points. I made this line -5.5, so we’re getting great value with Minnesota.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re awaiting news on Christian Darrisaw and Andrew Van Ginkel. Both practiced Wednesday, which is a good sign. Darrisaw was full, while Van Ginkel was limited.

PLAYER PROPS: I can’t believe how low Carson Wentz’s rushing prop is. Wentz is obviously no Lamar Jackson, but he’s a mobile quarterback who has posted these rushing yard totals in all of his starts since 2022: 22, 56, 19, 2, 15, 5, 22, 23, 12. He has exceeded 9.5 rushing yards in seven of his previous nine starts, and in each of his previous three starts. Th best number is over 9.5 rushing yards -122 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings are getting some serious reinforcements back from injury. Christian Darrisaw was full in practice on Friday. Andrew Van Ginkel was full in practice on Friday. Harrison Smith was limited all week. Ryan Kelly won’t play, but the Bengals won’t have a couple of key defenders either (Cam Taylor-Britt, Shemar Stewart). I still love the Vikings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Huge news for the Vikings. Christian Darrisaw, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Harrison Smith are all back! The Vikings look even better now, and this has caused some sharp money to come in on them, but not nearly enough. The best line is -3 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Slight lean on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 64% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Vikings are 49-39 ATS at home since 2014 (18-24 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles are 2-0, but it doesn’t really feel like they’re 2-0. They couldn’t score against an awful Dallas defense in the second half, and they didn’t have as much of an output as expected versus the Chiefs, especially when compared to what Justin Herbert was able to achieve in Brazil.

Part of the issue is A.J. Brown’s inability to separate. Perhaps Brown’s hamstring isn’t 100 percent, but he’s looked decrepit through two weeks. DeVonta Smith also got banged up in the second half versus the Chiefs, while Dallas Goedert was sidelined. The Eagles may not have much of a passing attack in this game against a ferocious front seven that gave Jalen Hurts issues in the playoffs.

Of course, the Eagles could just turn to Saquon Barkley, who demolished the Rams in two meetings last year. The Rams just nearly surrendered 100 rushing yards to Tony Pollard, so Barkley figures to have another big game.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Eagles still have a great defense, but the unit isn’t as good as the one we saw last year. They lost some depth on the defensive line, and they also have an issue at cornerback across from Quinyon Mitchell.

Matthew Stafford will be able to take advantage of this. Stafford was great against the Eagles in the playoffs, and now he’ll have Davante Adams as a huge upgrade over Cooper Kupp. It’ll be difficult for the Eagles to defend both Adams and Puka Nacua, especially with Stafford getting strong protection.

The running game may not work as well for the Rams. Javonte Williams ran right through the Eagles in the season opener, but Jalen Carter wasn’t available due to being ejected. Philadelphia’s ground defense was predictably much better in Week 2 versus Kansas City.

RECAP: The Eagles are 2-0, but they haven’t looked quite right. They had issues putting away the Cowboys, who had to go to overtime to beat the Giants. They also could have lost to the Chiefs had Travis Kelce not dropped the ball right near the goal line. Perhaps they still would have won the game, but Kansas City would have gone up 17-13 at that juncture.

Philadelphia could figure things out and become a powerhouse once again at some point. However, they’re not playing at their best right now, so I’m not comfortable laying more than a field goal with them against a good team.

The Rams are certainly a good team. They came closest to defeating the Eagles in the playoffs last season, and they’re 2-0 at the moment. Their pass rush is devastating, and they have a terrific offense. They’re not perfect – they struggle against the run – but Stafford is good enough to lead a comeback or perhaps get a back-door cover, which we saw in that playoff matchup.

Also, the Rams have a big psychological edge in this game. They circled this game as soon as the schedule was released because they’ll be able to get playoff revenge against the Eagles. Philadelphia, meanwhile, could be a bit flat after winning in Kansas City.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: So far, the public is on the Eagles, while the sharps are on the Rams. The pros brought this down from +4.5 to +3.5. The strength the sharps have on the Rams will be tested if they drop this line to +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: The more I think about this game, the more I like the Rams. They’ll be without starting offensive lineman (Steve Avila) and perhaps a starting defensive lineman (Braden Fiske), but they have a stalwart defense that could really limit Philadelphia. The Eagles, despite being 2-0, aren’t playing their best right now, and after a win at Kansas City, motivation could be low. Conversely, this is playoff revenge for the Rams, and we know Sean McVay is going to have his team ready to go because he always thrives in these early start times on the East Coast.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Braden Fiske is active for the Rams, which is a huge deal against Philadelphia’s offensive line. The sharps bet the Rams down from +4.5 to +3.5, but couldn’t push the line down to +3. The best line is +3.5 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Eagles just beat the Chiefs. The Rams want playoff revenge.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Money on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 62% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Sean McVay is 10-5 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.

Opening Total: .

Weather: Chance of rain, 72 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Mike Tomlin has had a non-losing season in every year as Pittsbugh’s head coach, but 2025 could finally be the time that he doesn’t finish .500 or better. The Steelers have a bunch of things wrong with them, and we’ll begin offensively.

The Steelers can’t block. Their offensive line is awful. Zach Frazier is a solid center, but the tackle and guard play has been disastrous thus far. There’s not anything even really wrong with Aaron Rodgers, but he’s not getting any protection. DK Metcalf is bailing out the offense on occasion with some amazing catches, but it didn’t happen enough in the two-touchdown loss to Seattle.

The run blocking has been better than the pass protection, but I wouldn’t expect much from Jaylen Warren on the ground. The Patriots have handled the run extremely well through two weeks, limiting both Aston Jeanty and De’Von Achane to fewer than 40 rushing yards each.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Steelers also have big defensive issues, which is not common for a Tomlin-coached team. They’ve been gashed by both the Jets and Seahawks – two teams quarterbacked by Justin Fields and Sam Darnold. That’s not a good sign.

Drake Maye isn’t the most-seasoned quarterback, but he had immense upside and showed that potential in a great game versus the Dolphins. Granted, Miami has a putrid defense, but Darnold just sliced through the Steelers with ease, so Maye could do that as well. Cornerback play outside of Jalen Ramsey has been awful, while the performances from the linebackers have been worse. Josh McDaniels will figure out how to use his pieces against these defensive liabilities. Perhaps he’ll figure out how to get Tre’Veyon Henderson more involved.

Speaking of Henderson, he or Rhamondre Stevenson figure to have a dominant performance on the ground. The Steelers haven’t been able to stop the run at all, allowing Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker to look like the second coming of Barry Sanders and Walter Payton.

RECAP: It seems weird to me that the Steelers are favored in New England. Well, maybe it’s not that weird because this line is catered to public perception. People think that the Steelers are still a decent team despite what happened versus Seattle last week. Pittsburgh is such a public team, that this is only natural. Meanwhile, the Patriots are seen as a bad team despite their victory in Miami last week because they were awful in 2024 and don’t really have any flashy players. So, I guess it’s not weird at all.

That doesn’t mean the spread is correct, however. The Steelers have some major problems. They could easily be 0-2 right now despite going against the Jets and Seahawks through two weeks. New York went right through their defense, while Seattle won easily. The Seahawks prevailed 31-17 even though they made a million mistakes in the first half. Pittsburgh can’t stop anyone and struggles to block. That’s not a good combination.

The Patriots are an up-and-coming team and are arguably better than the Steelers. Even if they’re equal, they should be favored by a point-and-a-half, so we’re getting some value with New England. It’s not insane value, but the wrong side is favored.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t get why the Steelers are favored, but I’m not alone. There’s a ton of public money coming into the Patriots. If I were betting on New England, I’d be a bit worried about backing a public home dog.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Drake Maye last week, and we’ll do it again. The Steelers can’t stop anyone. They allowed Justin Fields to run for 48 yards. Maye can get to 22. The best number is over 21.5 rushing yards -135 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams might get some defenders back from injury. Christian Gonzalez is questionable after limited practices all week. Keion White practiced fully on Friday. Meanwhile, the Steelers saw Derrick Harmon have a full practice as well. Pittsburgh, however, still won’t have DeShon Elliott and now will be missing Alex Highsmith. I’m still leaning toward the Patriots.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Derrick Harmon is back for the Steelers, so maybe he’ll help the defense. I still would side with the Patriots, but I’m not betting this game. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +1 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The public all over the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 83% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Aaron Rodgers is 134-100 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 43-28 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Steelers are 15-31 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Opening Line: Steelers -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 67 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Video of the Week: Last year, I posted a Mario hack that had Shel Silverstein poetry in it. This one is a Mario, erm, Luigi escape room:

My only regret from watching this is that I know how to solve all the puzzles so I couldn’t figure it out myself.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Jets offense because that’s where the news is concerning the quarterback situation. Justin Fields suffered a concussion against the Bills. Aaron Glenn said that it’ll be difficult for Fields to play if he can’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. Given how the NFL now treats concussions, it almost seems like a long shot for Fields to play this week.

Enter, Tyrod Taylor. The long-time backup has some wins under his belt. He’s not a very talented quarterback, but he’s a gritty player who is liked by his teammates. The Jets will try hard for him, and Taylor could have some success against a Tampa Bay defense that has big problems with the pass. We didn’t see that Monday night against the Texans because Tampa Bay was able to put a ton of pressure on C.J. Stroud. Taylor will be well protected by a very strong offensive line, so he’ll have a better chance of succeeding.

I wouldn’t expect much from Breece Hall as a runner, however. Perhaps Hall can have some big gains as a receiver, but the Buccaneers are stout versus the run, thanks to Vita Vea.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Jets have the opposite issue as the Buccaneers. While Tampa Bay is strong against the run and weak to the pass, New York can’t stop the run and plays well versus aerial attacks. We saw this last week when James Cook completely gashed the Jets.

Bucky Irving should be in store for a big game, especially if he gets both tackles back from injury. Tristan Wirfs was limited in practice last week, so he could be close to playing. Luke Goedeke left the Houston contest, so it’s unclear what his status is. Nevertheless, the Buccaneers have a strong interior that should still be able to open up running lanes for Irving.

Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, won’t have as big of a performance, despite his Monday night heroics. The Jets have strong cornerback play. Sauce Gardner will be able to limit Mike Evans, forcing Mayfield to look elsewhere. Mayfield will need more time than usual, so the status of Wirfs and Goedeke will be huge.

RECAP: It’s not yet clear if Fields will play in this game. There’s a chance he’ll clear concussion protocol, but given what we’ve seen from the NFL last year, it seems as though he’ll miss one game.

I love fading awful teams with backup quarterbacks, though I’m not sure if we can consider the Jets to be awful. They have a stout offensive line, two dynamic play-makers, and a defense with some quality defensive pieces. Plus, we’ve seen Taylor perform well in some spot starts. He nearly took down the Bills as a double-digit underdog on a Sunday night.

Besides, there’s a problem with the Buccaneers, which is that this is a tough scheduling spot. They’re coming off a last-second road win on Monday night. They’re going to have to travel following that victory and prepare for a new quarterback on a short work week.

Though the Buccaneers are the better team, this is a high number for them to cover. I’m going to side with the Jets, but I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Jets, dragging this line down to +6.5. The Buccaneers are in a tricky scheduling spot, and they also lost Calijah Kancey to injury.

PLAYER PROPS: The Buccaneers have gone seven consecutive games without surrendering 50 rushing yards to any player. This includes Bijan Robinson, who had just 24 rushing yards in Week 1. We faded Nick Chubb for this reason on Monday, and we’ll do so with Breece Hall. The best number is under 59.5 rushing yards -118 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers are the walking wounded. Emeka Egbuka could miss this game after barely practicing, and Calijah Kancey was placed on injured reserve, but the primary issue is with the offensive line. With Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch placed on injured reserve, and Tristan Wirfs ruled out, I don’t know how the Buccaneers are going to put a viable offensive line together, especially after one fewer day of rest. The Jets will have a big advantage in the trenches, so I’m going to place three units on the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Emeka Egbuka will play, but the other Buccaneer players will be sidelined. The Jets won’t have Tony Adams. The sharps are on the Jets. The best line is +6.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Buccaneers are coming off a last-second win on a short work week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -7.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Slight lean on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Road Team is 144-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 45-75 ATS at home in the previous 120 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 90 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: When the Buccaneers lost both of their tackles on Monday night, C.J. Stroud may have said to Baker Mayfield, “I feel your pain.” This is because Stroud has nothing as far as pass protection is concerned. He was beaten to a pulp Monday night even though the Buccaneers don’t even have a great edge rush.

Stroud will be in trouble in this game because the Jaguars actually have the edge rushers to punish poor tackle play. They knocked Joe Burrow out for most of the season, and they’ll look to treat Stroud similarly. Stroud once again won’t have ample time to find Nico Collins.

It doesn’t help Stroud that he can’t lean on any sort of running game. Nick Chubb looked like he was running in quicksand on Monday night, which is hardly a surprise, given his previous knee injury. The awful blocking isn’t helping matters.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Stroud wasn’t the only quarterback in this matchup who struggled in Week 2. Trevor Lawrence had some great throws against the Bengals, but gave the game away with numerous errant passes. He was intercepted twice and was lucky not to throw several more picks. He nearly got Brian Thomas Jr. killed on numerous occasions, and he even got into a negative interaction with Liam Coen during the final offensive drive of the afternoon.

As mediocre as Lawrence has been this year, it must be noted that he’s battled two of the worst defenses in the NFL: Carolina and Cincinnati. I called the Texans defense a paper tiger for their humiliating final drive against the Buccaneers, but there’s no doubt that Houston’s stop unit is better than whatever the Panthers and Bengals possess.

I’m not confident that Lawrence’s offensive line will be able to protect him from Houston’s talented pass rushers. Perhaps Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten can have some explosive runs like Bucky Irving did on Monday night, but I otherwise wouldn’t expect anything out of Jacksonville’s offense, especially with Thomas now nursing an injury.

RECAP: I hate both of these teams. Both surrendered last-second touchdown drives last week to cost us seven units plus the vig. The Jacksonville loss was especially brutal.

I also hate these teams because they suck. The Texans can’t block whatsoever, which will be a problem against a Jacksonville defense that brings lots of pressure. As for the Jaguars, it’s impossible to trust Lawrence against a talented defense, especially with Thomas injured. Lawrence was an interception machine against the Bengals, and I don’t need to tell you that Houston’s stop unit is much better than Cincinnati’s.

The Jaguars have a scheduling edge here because the Texans are playing a game on a short week and now have to travel. However, the Texans will be desperate for a win here because they’re 0-2. I’m going to side with Houston, but I’m nowhere close to betting either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in betting this game. I’d still lean Houston.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing new to note here. I still can’t get to either team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Kirk will be active, so perhaps he’ll help Houston’s offense a bit, especially in a revenge spot. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +1.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 57% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 23 of the last 29 meetings.

Texans are 58-44 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (9-11 ATS as favorites).

Jaguars are 17-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -1.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 85 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.