By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Nobody really knows how Melvin Gordon’s holdout will play out but there’s plenty of reason to plan for him missing the whole season. The fallout from losing a back who averaged 20 touches a game is significant, especially in fantasy.
The biggest question is, who will lead the way at running back if Gordon isn’t there? Last season, Gordon missed four games and had a 39-percent snap rate in the game he was injured. His primary backup, Austin Ekeler missed two games, with one coinciding with a Gordon absence. The third back, Justin Jackson, didn’t get on the field until Week 6 and only topped a 37-percent snap rate in the game in which Gordon and Ekeler missed.
With Gordon out, Ekeler saw snap rates of 95, 78 and 68 percent, while Justin Jackson saw 11, 22 and 37 percent when Ekeler got the start. Those numbers are in chronological order, so Jackson did see an increase in work as the season went on. When you look at touches, Ekeler had 17, 18, and 17 in those same games while Jackson hit 3, 9 and 9.
So Ekeler was the no-doubt starter, even when Jackson was more integrated into the offense late in the season, but the numbers in those games where Ekeler started were not good, as he averaged 13 carries for 43 yards and 6.7 targets and four receptions for 25 yards. His worst game of the three came against Pittsburgh, who did have one of the best run defenses in the league last season, but that was also Jackson’s best game of the season, accumulating 82 yards and a touchdown on just nine touches.
On the season, there wasn’t much comparison stat-wise, as Ekeler had a bigger sample size and better efficiency stats, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to Jackson’s 4.1 and 10.4 yards per reception to Jackson’s 9 yards per reception.
But when you look at just Week’s 12 through 17, their numbers are much closer, as Jackson rushed 45 times for 199 yards (4.42 YPC) and two touchdowns, while catching 13-of-17 targets for 116 yards (8.9 YPC) while Ekeler rushed 41 times for 180 yards (4.39 YPC) and three touchdowns while catching 17-of-25 targets for 118 yards (6.9 YPC). Again, this is a small sample size, but during this time, Ekeler saw two starts and Jackson saw one when Ekeler and Gordon were out with injuries. With more rushing attempts, Ekeler’s numbers went down. That is a little worrying. When he saw nine or fewer rushing attempts, Ekeler averaged 6.3 yards per carry but when he saw 10 or more, he averaged four yards per carry. Jackson also had trouble in that department, but he only saw north of eight carries once, when he rushed 16 times against Kansas City for 58 yards, a 3.63 yards-per-carry performance.
When looking at the build of Ekeler and Jackson, Jackson is actually slighter, standing six feet tall, but weighing in at 193 to 199 pounds, depending on the source, while Ekeler weighs in at 199 pounds, but is just 5-9. Ekeler is, in essence, the “stronger” back, as he can get lower but is still stout. Ekeler went to a small school, but he was the workhorse, averaging 26.3 touches a game while averaging six yards per carry. Justin Jackson was also the lead back and at a bigger school, averaging 24.8 touches per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Both could be lead backs in the league, but since they would be the one and two if Gordon is absent, splitting touches is more likely, with one player leading the way, and that’s the question we need to answer.
Ekeler did most of his damage as a complementary back, which gave him more work on passing downs and against lighter fronts, but the same is true for Jackson. Ekeler was a dynamic player, according to Pro Football Focus, who grades individual players. They ranked him as the sixth-overall running back with an 83.6 grade and seventh in elusive rating, while he was sixth in yards per carry and seventh in yards per target. There’s no doubt that he is an excellent back when getting his 8-9 touches a game, but can he excel in a lead role? So far, the answer is no, but with just three starts, it’s still too way too early to make that call.
When you take a look back at Jackson’s scouting reports, he got plenty of praise across the industry, with Rookie Scouting Portfolio’s Matt Waldman giving him high praise across the board, comparing him with Jamaal Charles. Most draftniks knocked him for his size, but Waldman saw his vision, short-area quickness and ability to keep his legs driving after contact as signs that he can continue his short-yardage ability in the NFL.
Ekeler wasn’t noticed by scouts due to his competition in Division II until his pro day when he put up comparable numbers to the best running backs at the combine. That didn’t get him drafted, but it helped land him in a great spot for his talent as a UDFA. His pass protection and vision at the line were concerning coming out of college and so far he’s shown his best when catching passes or running with fresh legs in a relief role.
At this point, Ekeler is the safe pick because he was clearly ahead of Jackson last season, but there is a lot to like about Jackson’s all-around potential compared to Ekeler. I easily could see the Chargers wanting to keep Ekeler in his complementary role, which has paid huge dividends so far while giving Jackson a shot as the lead back. That dynamic would likely lead to the best overall output if it went well, but that depends solely on how well Jackson can perform in training camp and preseason. I’m moving both up in my rankings and keeping them close to each other, as I think both have stand-alone value in PPR leagues. If I had to pick one player right now, I’d take my chances on Jackson because I feel he has the upside to lead this backfield, but there’s no way Ekeler goes away even if Jackson takes off.
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