2009 Fantasy Football – 10 Common Mistakes Made by Fantasy Owners
1. Using Fantasy Mags
Back in 1999, when I was a high school senior, one of the few classes I didn’t frequently cut was Internet class. I managed to do three things in this course: create this Web site; chat on AIM; and talk football with my friend Kenny. Here’s to hoping our teacher, Mr. Rosen, isn’t reading this and thinking about retroactively changing my grade from an A to an F.
Kenny coincidentally now hosts this Web site. I’ve also been in a fantasy league with him every year since 2000. I’ll never forget a piece of advice Kenny gave me back in Mr. Rosen’s class when I was just a mere fantasy novice. He said, “Whenever I see someone picking out of a fantasy magazine during a draft, I know they’re not winning the league.”
A few years later, I would be following the same credo. Fantasy mags are semi-useful if you’re drafting in June. However, so much happens between the time they are published and the time most leagues draft. If you use a fantasy mag, you’re getting nothing but dated information. For example, ESPN’s edition ranks Knowshon Moreno low because J.J. Arrington might get some of his touches. Just a slight problem – Arrington is no longer on the team. Whoops.
I have detailed and ever-changing Fantasy Football Rankings on this site. They’ll constantly be updated throughout training camp and preseason. If you don’t like my rankings, go to another site. But whatever you do, don’t draft out of a fantasy mag.
Now, I’m not saying you shouldn’t buy a fantasy mag. I like owning one just to read what other analysts have to say. I also like to see how radically different my rankings are compared to ESPN’s. But at the very worst, it makes for good bathroom reading, and you can even use your fantasy mag as toilet paper if you run out of the real stuff.
2. Going Receiver-Receiver
Speaking of fantasy mags, ESPN’s edition has a whole article on why going receiver-receiver in the first two rounds is the thing to do this year. They claim that running backs are extremely volatile, and because receivers are a “sure bet,” taking a pair of wideouts in the first two rounds is the right move. In fact, in their mock draft, one of the analysts went WR-WR-WR. More on this epic fail in a later column.
Here’s the problem with going receiver-receiver. Let’s say you’re drafting late in the first round of a 12-man league, and you take Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. If you’re in a league with sharp fantasy owners, Knowshon Moreno, Pierre Thomas and Kevin Smith could all be off the board once you’re up in Round 3. Thus, you may be stuck with Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Marshawn Lynch or Darren McFadden as your RB1. That’s a recipe for debaclation.
For more on this, Matt posted a 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft where he intentionally went receiver-receiver. The results weren’t very lucrative.
Before I move on, let me dispel the belief that wideouts are a “sure thing.” If you went WR-WR last year, you may have ended up with Randy Moss-Marques Colston, Randy Moss-Reggie Wayne or Randy Moss-Braylon Edwards. If so, you may have finished last in your fantasy league.
3. Drinking and Drafting
I love drinking, and I love drafting, but the two don’t go together.
Case in point: Two years ago, I had about six beers during my Touchdown League fantasy draft. Entry is a whopping $200 and each transaction is $5. I had to take out a second mortgage just to play in this league.
Now, I thought I’d be OK with six beers. I certainly wasn’t drunk, but I had a buzz going and I wasn’t thinking too clearly. In the 10th round, a few guys I was targeting quickly went off the board, so in haste (we had 90 seconds to pick), I selected Terry Glenn.
“Isn’t he hurt?” One league member asked.
“Nah, he’ll be fine, trust me,” I confidently replied, shrugging it off.
He wasn’t fine. Glenn didn’t catch a single pass all year. I cut him a few weeks later, and ultimately missed the playoffs by one game, thanks to shoddy receiving depth.
And here I thought those “you booze, you lose” commercials were just a gimmick.
4. Making Fun of League Members
Speaking of drinking and drafting, I was in the same league last year (third mortgage). One of the guys who had way too much beer in his system announced his 12th-round pick from the other room.
“Drew Beeehhhhhh!” he slurred drunkenly and incoherently.
As the league commissioner announced that Drew Bennett was off the board, most of us cracked up. My friend Steve, who was also drinking at the time, nearly fell out of his chair.
“Hahahaha, he said Drew Beeeehhhhhhh!!!!” Steve laughed. “Drew Beeeehhhhhhh!!!! (20-second pause) Drew Beeeehhhhhhh!!!! (20-second pause) Drew Beeeehhhhhhh!!!! (20-second pause) Drew Beeeehhhhhhh!!!! (20-second pause) Drew Beeeehhhhhhh!!!!! (20-second pause) Drew Beeeehhhhhhh!!!!”
This went on for about 30 minutes.
Four months later, the Drew Beeehhhh guy somehow made it to the finals. Steve was the other qualifier.
Fortunately for Steve, the Drew Beeeehhhh guy offered Steve to split the finals money 50-50, no matter who won the championship. Steve asked for my advice.
“Dude, you’re screwed karmically,” I told him. “You already lost to this guy twice this year because you made fun of him on Draft Night. You’re going to lose again. Take the money.”
Steve followed my advice, and sure enough, he went down to the Drew Beeeehhhhh guy a third time. Karma’s a b***h.
Steve has yet to pay me for my advice, but I’m expecting a check in the mail.
5. Not Accomodating to New and Clueless Members
One of the first tastes of karmic medicine I received in the fantasy football realm occurred back in August of 2002. I was in a league with Kenny and held the No. 2 pick. I was deciding between Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes. After all, Marshall Faulk, the consensus No. 1 choice, was guaranteed to be off the board.
The guy drafting first overall was not only new to the league; he had never played fantasy football before. When we started the draft, he quickly announced his pick:
“Defenses win championships. I’m taking the Buccaneers defense.”
The whole room was silent. Kenny stared quizzically at this guy. I fist pumped. Faulk was mine.
“Wait, wait, wait… we can’t do this,” the league commissioner interjected just as I was about to take Faulk. “This isn’t fair. He needs to have Marshall Faulk.”
The whole room agreed except for me.
“What!?” I shouted. “That’s ridiculous. He took the Bucs, so I should get Faulk.”
Ultimately, it was decided that the n00b would take Faulk, leaving me with Alexander. Kenny and I would go on to make fun of him all year, and still do to this day.
Alexander scored 18 touchdowns for me, while Faulk started just 10 games. I qualified for the playoffs, but missed out on a bye because the n00b destroyed me twice. See, the n00b finally went with Tampa’s defense in the seventh round, so I “coincidentally” had the misfortune of playing him when the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl defense squashed the Ravens, 25-0, and Falcons, 34-10.
Because I missed out on a bye, I had to play in Week 14. And guess what? Alexander battled Philadelphia’s tough defense that week, marking one of the few times all season he didn’t score. I was consequently knocked out of the first round.
6. Taking Kickers and Defenses Too Early
ESPN, NFL.com, CBS, Yahoo, and independent sites, such as this one, have repeatedly written about this over the years, yet in every league, there’s always some clown who takes Nick Folk or Adam Vinatieri in the 13th round. There is also a group of owners who love taking defenses as early as Rounds 7 or 8.
I’d say this needs to stop, but I love when it happens because it gives me a better chance of getting a mid-round running back or receiver sleeper I have my eye on.
I was in a league last year where three owners waited until the final two rounds to draft their defense and kicker. All three teams were in the semi-finals. That can’t be a coincidence.
7. Not Drafting for Upside in the Latter Rounds
Sticking with the late-round theme, I’ll never understand why fantasy owners draft your everyday waiver-wire fodder in the final few rounds. I’m talking about players like Muhsin Muhammad, Jake Delhomme or Michael Jenkins – guys good for sub-par production but have no chance of emerging as a sleeper.
I love going for upside late in the draft. In one league last year, I obtained Eddie Royal in the final round. In another league, I went with Antonio Bryant in the 14th round. In a third league, I took a shot with Pierre Thomas late.
I’ll admit that I’ve whiffed on many of these late-round selections, but that’s going to happen regardless. Why eschew a shot on a sleeper and settle with Muhammad, Delhomme or Jenkins, when you can just as easily pick up someone of that caliber any week during the year?
Go here to see my 2009 Fantasy Football: Late-Round Sleepers. This list will be updated during the preseason and will include better candidates.
For the record, my 2008 Fantasy Football Late-Round Sleepers were: Kurt Warner (major hit), Josh Morgan (miss – caught the flu), Ray Rice (meh), Steve Slaton (major hit), Ted Ginn (whiff), Kevin Walter (hit), Steve Smith (miss in non-PPR leagues), Pierre Thomas (hit), Antonio Bryant (major hit) and Zach Miller (meh). I’ll take a 50-percent hit rate in the final few rounds over some waiver-wire garbage.
8. Underestimating Contract Years
Jason Taylor was recently awarded $1.5 million because something fell through when he was trying to buy his own private island. These football players have it so tough.
Times have changed, and football is now more about the money than ever. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to a player’s contract situation.
For instance, here’s why I loved Antonio Bryant last year:
Antonio Bryant has always had talent; he just could never put it all together and become a dominant receiver, though he showed flashes in 2005 when he had 1,009 yards for the Browns. Now playing for a new contract, Bryant seems rededicated.
The only time Bryant has put forth any sort of effort in his career has been when he’s been in a contract year. Once he’s been given a nice signing bonus on a multi-season deal, he begins slacking off and getting into fights with his quarterback. Josh Freeman, beware in 2010.
Luckily for Bucs fans, Bryant was franchised, so he has to try hard once again this season. Braylon Edwards is in the same situation in Cleveland, so look for him to rebound off a dismal 2008 campaign.
By the way, you can get the contract info for any NFL player in our NFL Free Agency and Expiring Contracts section.
9. Not Checking Bye Weeks
You may read that header and think, “Bah, bye weeks are for sissies.” Well, hear me out.
You’ve printed out your cheat sheets. You’ve read your favorite fantasy mag from front to back. You’ve looked for updates online. You’re ready for your draft. However, 11 rounds through, you suddenly realize, “Holy crap, I forgot to check for bye weeks.”
Why go through all that preparation if you’re going to neglect something like that? As my sixth-grade English teacher used to say, “That’s ilresponsible.” And no, his first name wasn’t Emmitt.
I’ll admit that I’m guilty of this myself, and every year, I vow to look at bye weeks when I’m drafting my backups. If you’re looking for an RB3 or a WR4, and there are several players you’re torn on, you should always take someone who has a different bye week than your starters. It’s just lazy to do otherwise.
However, I must note that if there’s a player whom you love, and in your opinion, is far and away the best player available, screw they bye weeks for that instance and take your guy.
10. Not Following Training Camp and Preseason News
This goes hand in hand with my first point, but I love fantasy leagues that draft toward the end of August or in the beginning of September. I feel as though the more preseason action I get to see, the more of an advantage I have.
If you throw out each team’s final exhibition game (usually played by practice-squad members), I’ve watched every NFL preseason game in the last few years.
And no, I’m not mentally insane, and yes, I have at least a few friends and tend to leave my house on occasion.
Watching preseason games is very useful. For instance, I noticed that Tom Brady’s first read two years ago was always Wes Welker. Welker was getting drafted in the 13th or 14th rounds of most leagues. So, after noticing this, I had him as a late-round sleeper and told readers of this site to take him in Rounds 9-11. Welker went on to tie T.J. Houshmandzadeh for the league lead in receptions.
Last year, I fell in love with Calvin Johnson because despite constant double teams, there was no defense that had success covering him. Jon Kitna simply threw it up to his No. 1 wideout, and Megatron easily came down with the ball. I drafted Johnson ahead of Roy Williams in one league. Some guy laughed at the selection, but Megatron helped me clinch a first-round bye in that league. That guy, by the way, didn’t make the playoffs.
Now, I understand that watching preseason games is boring, and that’s something that you’re not interested in doing. Fortunately, like last year, I’ll be blogging about each exhibition contest on this site and adjusting my 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings accordingly. The preseason begins on Aug. 9, so look for our exhibition coverage then. Hopefully by that date, you’ll still have a few clean pages remaining in your fantasy mag.
Be sure to check out my other 2009 Fantasy Football articles, which will include mock drafts, rankings, sleepers, busts, cheat sheets and other things.
More 2010 Fantasy Football Articles:
2010 Fantasy Football: Home
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings:
2010 Fantasy Football Playoff Rankings - 1/5 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Week 17 Fantasy Rankings - 1/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 8/31 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 6/6 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 7/3 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 7/14 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 8/31 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 7/20 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 6/10 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 6/11 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Auction Values - 9/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Defensive Linemen - 8/3 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Linebackers - 8/7 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Defensive Backs - 8/14 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Team-by-Team - 6/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Dynasty Rookie Rankings - 4/30 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Rookie Rankings - 4/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
2010 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Traditional - 9/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 PPR - 9/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Touchdown League - 9/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Downloadable Spreadsheets - 9/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: WF.com Free League - 9/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Real Traditional Draft - 9/1 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Real PPR Draft - 8/26 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Real PPR Draft - 8/18 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Real Experts PPR Draft - 8/12 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Experts Mock Draft - 8/12 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Pros vs. Joes - 7/28 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR Draft with AKA - 7/20 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Mocking ESPN's Fantasy Mock Draft - 7/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: The Four-Man PPR Fantasy Draft - 7/1 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Articles:
2010 Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 17 - 1/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em - 12/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Add/Drop - 12/20 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Stock Index - Week 8 - 10/29 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football Buffet: Week 8 - 10/28 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Stock - 9/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Preseason Stock - 9/3 (Walt)
2010 NFL Preseason Recap, Fantasy Football Notes - 9/3 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: High-Upside Late-Round Sleepers - 8/25 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Top 12 Players to Avoid - 8/25 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Undervalued Players - 8/13 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football: Buy Low - 8/6 (Walt)
ESPN's 2010 Fantasy Football Magazine Errors - 8/3 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Defense Strategy - 8/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: My Round-by-Round Strategy - 7/27 (Walt)
Lack of 2010 Fantasy Depth: Blame the 2008 NFL Draft Class - 7/26 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football: Why You Should Pass on Chris Johnson - 7/14 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football: Draft Strategies - 7/13 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football: Wide Receiver Scarcity - 6/30 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Sleepers (Late-Round) - 6/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Sleepers (Mid-Round) - 6/1 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Busts - 5/31 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 5/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks with New Receivers - 5/1 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: 2010 NFL Draft Stock Up - 4/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: 2010 NFL Draft Stock Down - 4/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Free Agency Stock Up - 4/15 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Free Agency Stock Down - 4/12 (Walt)
Running Backs with Most Carries - 4/10 (Walt)
2025 NFL Mock Draft - May 12
Fantasy Football Rankings - May 9
NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22
NFL Picks - Feb. 12
