By Matt McGuire. Aug. 13, 2009.
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I have a theory that says fantasy owners who tend to really study preseason games have the greatest long-term success in fantasy football.
As opposed to watching all 22 players on the field at once, you need to focus on matchups to maximize your evaluation technique. I have compiled a list of fantasy sleepers whom you need to focus on to dominate the middle and final rounds of your fantasy draft.
Saint Louis: Keenan Burton vs. Laurent Robinson
With Donnie Avery being out for 4-6 weeks with an ankle sprain, one of these receivers might be a top-40 fantasy wideout when all is said and done. I am leaning toward Robinson because Burton didn’t do much to impress me at Kentucky, but if he can stay healthy, he has a little potential as a possession receiver.
If Robinson can put it all together, then he could have a 900-plus yard season, but I am assuming Atlanta traded him because he wasn’t good enough to be a No. 4 WR for them. Pay attention to both receivers in terms of how quickly they get out of their breaks and their yards after catch to find out who has more upside.
Cleveland: James Davis vs. Jerome Harrison
I think one of these running backs could have a 1,000-plus yard season. Jamal Lewis is old and doesn’t have much juice left. Whichever one of these backs is expected to be the No. 2 tailback in Cleveland after preseason, draft him as your RB4/RB5.
Baltimore Ravens Running Back Strategy
We need to see how Cam Cameron is going to distribute the ball. The offense line will be dominant in run blocking this year with the addition of Michael Oher at right tackle. If Ray Rice is getting a large percentage of touches, then he should have a breakout season. Monitor this situation closely if you want to dominate your fantasy draft.
Indianapolis: Donald Brown vs. Joseph Addai
Brown is the heavy favorite to be the No. 1 back, but we need to know how many touches Addai will get. Also, pay close attention to Indy’s run blocking up front. If it is as bad as last year, then don’t hesitate to pass on both backs.
Kansas City: Jamaal Charles vs. Larry Johnson
Jamaal Charles is a favorite deep sleeper of mine. Make sure to target this battle during preseason games because Charles’ explosive playmaking ability provides a very good amount of upside for fantasy owners. Todd Haley has never had a back this explosive in Arizona, and he might find creative ways to use him.
Monitor when both players are on the field. For example, if Johnson is getting most of his work in the second quarter behind Charles, then we know to draft Charles much earlier than most fantasy owners are accustomed to.
New York Giants: Ahmad Bradshaw
Based on how much the Giants use Bradshaw in the passing game, his fantasy stock could really rise on my board. The Giants typically run between 450 and 470 attempts with their tailbacks every season. Brandon Jacobs has averaged 210 carries over the past two seasons. If Bradshaw gets 200-plus rushing attempts and is used as a weapon in the passing game (a la Derrick Ward clone), then he presents RB2 potential.
Philadelphia Eagles: LeSean McCoy
The more impressive this player looks, the more playing time he will receive. If McCoy lights it up, then he is a must-handcuff for Westbrook owners and Westbrook’s fantasy stock should go down considerably.
Chicago Bears: Juaquin Iglesias vs. Earl Bennett
I am predicting a top-three tight end season for Greg Olsen. However, the possession receiver in this offense should have impressive numbers. This is another receiver battle with great potential for a fantasy owner’s bench.
Others players I am going to watch closely in preseason: Washington QB Jason Campbell, Detroit TE Brandon Pettigrew, Jets TE Dustin Keller, San Francisco WR Josh Morgan, Minnesota WR Percy Harvin, Indianapolis WR Pierre Garcon.
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