By Chet Gresham – @chetgresham
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Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ersSamuel landed in a good spot as far as offensive scheme under Kyle Shanahan, but he will have to beat out plenty of receivers to get the targets he needs for fantasy production. I’m on board with his dynasty value being in the first round of rookie drafts, but I’ll be avoiding him in standard re-draft leagues with George Kittle and Dante Pettis ahead of him on the target sheet.
George Kittle is still a top-three fantasy-tight end lock, and I still like Dante Pettis, but Samuel could help spread the targets out. I’m not dropping Pettis yet, as Samuel will need to win those targets first.
Drew Lock, QB, BroncosJohn Elway again gets his old school-prototype passer, but at least he didn’t waste a first-round pick on him. Lock has some potential if he continues to improve, which he’ll look to do behind 34-year-old Joe Flacco. As it is with most young quarterbacks behind a lousy quarterback, Lock will likely see a start sooner than later, but there’s not enough upside to bank on that this year. He has an excellent shot to win the starting job after this year, so keep him in mind, especially in 2QB dynasty leagues.
Irv Smith, TE, VikingsUnless the Vikings trade Kyle Rudolph, Smith won’t have a chance to be the starter this season, but this is Rudolph’s last season on his contract, and as long as Smith is trending in the right direction, the Vikings will likely let Rudolph walk and keep Smith as the starter. That’s enough for some dynasty love this year.
A.J. Brown, WR, TitansBrown is a player who should be able to succeed in the NFL; unfortunately, he landed in a tough place for a wide receiver to put up many fantasy points. The Titans didn’t lose many targets this offseason, so there isn’t a glaring hole to fill, especially after adding Adam Humphries, who will start in the slot, a spot in which Brown excelled in college. Corey Davis will still be the No. 1 receiver and has the chops to keep that role, while the Titans also want to run the ball more than most teams. Add in the fact that Marcus Mariota has been hurt or unproductive way too often, and Brown likely won’t have much re-draft value. He’ll need Mariota to get back on track to help his dynasty appeal.
Miles Sanders, RB, EaglesThe Eagles aren’t going to give one running back a vast majority of the touches, but Sanders is a player who could handle an every-down role, while newly acquired Jordan Howard cannot. Howard could regain goal-line work and take up a chunk of early-down work, but Sanders should be the most productive of whatever group ends up suiting up on game day. The Eagles have a tremendous offensive line and a potent offense all-together, so betting on Sanders’ talent should pay off.
Jordan Howard takes a huge hit and will plummet in fantasy rankings, while Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood lose any chance for consistent production behind Sanders and Howard.
Mecole Hardman, WR, ChiefsHardman only caught 59 passes in his 3-year college career, but with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash and Tyreek Hill all but out of the league for good, Hardman has a massive opportunity in this Kansas City offense. He’s no lock of course, as he has been more of a return man than a receiver, but if anyone can do something with his speed, it’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Drafting Hardman is actually a move that likely helps Sammy Watkins, as Hardman has a lot of work to do if he wants to see a significant percentage of targets during his rookie year. There’s no doubt some big plays are in his near future, but he’s not set up to take on Hill’s role right out of the gate.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, EaglesArcega-Whiteside is a good receiver, and like Alshon Jeffery, he can use his body and hands well when working to beat a defender on a contested catch. The Eagles, unfortunately, are flush with pass-catchers right now. Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and DeSean Jackson all will see work, making it tough for Arcega-Whiteside to get the snaps he’ll need this season for fantasy value. Jackson and Agholor will be free agents next year, and Agholor has been rumored to be available, so there is plenty of room for fantasy value down the line.
After Zach Ertz, the Eagles’ target distribution was going to be thinned out even without Arcega-Whiteside there, so if he can get on the field his rookie year, he’d likely cut into the non-Ertz receivers sooner than later.
Parris Campbell, WR, ColtsCampbell should quickly slot in behind T.Y. Hilton and next to Devin Funchess in the wide receiver room. Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle are also big target contenders though, along with the running backs, so there likely won’t be a significant target share for Campbell to start, but his ability is strong enough that he could win targets as the season goes on and move up as the No. 2 target without injuries to his teammates. There aren’t a lot of instant fantasy-impact rookies this year, but Campbell landed in an excellent spot for his dynasty value and could have some re-draft value this year as well.
Campbell’s skill set is as an underneath receiver, but he should be able to develop and diversify his route tree in Indianapolis. His presence could hurt all but T.Y Hilton in fantasy, but I still think Funchess should excel as a red-zone target, albeit on fewer targets.
Andy Isabella, WR, CardinalsIsabella has everything except size, and in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, he should be able to be productive early on. He’ll be behind Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, but should still be an excellent deep threat early on and once Fitzgerald is gone, he’ll have room to expand his role. Kingsbury’s offense could bust, but it should still be exciting and boost fantasy points, and Isabella will be a big part of that.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, SeahawksMetcalf doesn’t do much but run curls and go routes, but both fit his ability and speed and are useful in the NFL. Seattle, albeit an extreme run-first offense, was still a nice landing spot as Russell Wilson is a great quarterback and the team won’t likely have Doug Baldwin around for much longer, if at all. Metcalf has had injuries end his last two seasons and might be in store for an injury-filled NFL career, but I’m willing to give him a chance in a good situation. He’ll likely be inconsistent, but Wilson’s ability and efficiency should give Metcalf chances for huge plays and fantasy value whenever Baldwin is off the field.
Check out the Fantasy Fallout from Round 1 and Fantasy Fallout from Round 3 of the 2019 NFL Draft.
For more recommendations, check out WalterFootball.com’s Fantasy Football Rankings.
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