NFL Betting Trends: Beating the Champion

An e-mailer pointed out to me that I had the wrong side in the Chicago-Seattle (Week 2, 2009) game because I was backing a team that just beat a defending Super Bowl champion as an underdog (not coming off a bye) and was playing on the road. Historically, he said, this was a losing proposition.

So, being very curious and having a lot of time on Friday afternoon, I compiled the data of this trend in the past decade. I came up with some pretty interesting numbers:

Beating a Super Bowl Champion as a Favorite:

Team	Coach	ATS Record since 2000	Home Favorite	Home Underdog	Road Favorite	Road Underdog
ATL/strong>	Mike Smith	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
BAL	Brian Billick	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
BAL	John Harbaugh	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
CHI	Marc Trestman	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
DAL	Jason Garrett	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
DAL	Wade Phillips	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
DEN	John Fox	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-0
DEN	Mike Shanahan	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
IND	Tony Dungy	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
KC	Andy Reid	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-0
KC	Dick Vermeil	1-0	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0
MIA	Dave Wannstedt	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
PHI	Andy Reid	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
PIT	Mike Tomlin	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-0
SF	Mike Nolan	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-0
TEN	Jeff Fisher	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-0

	Total Record	8-8	1-2	1-0	3-2	3-4

Beating a Super Bowl Champion as an Underdog:

Team	Coach	ATS Record since 2000	Home Favorite	Home Underdog	Road Favorite	Road Underdog
ATL	Dan Quinn	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
ATL	Mike Smith	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
ATL	Jim Mora Jr.	2-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
BAL	John Harbaugh	1-1	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-1
BAL	Brian Billick	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
CAR	Ron Rivera	2-0	0-0	1-0	0-0	1-0
CAR	John Fox	0-2	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-0
CAR	George Seifert	1-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	1-0
CHI	Lovie Smith	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-0
CIN	Marvin Lewis	1-3	0-1	0-0	1-2	0-0
CIN	Dick LeBeau	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
CLE	Eric Mangini	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
CLE	Romeo Crennel	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
CLE	Butch Davis	1-1	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
DAL	Jason Garrett	2-1	1-0	0-0	0-1	1-0
DEN	Gary Kubiak	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-0
DEN	Mike Shanahan	0-2	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-0
GB	Mike Sherman	2-1	2-0	0-0	0-1	0-0
HOU	Bill O’Brien	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
IND	Tony Dungy	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
JAX	Jack Del Rio	1-2	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-2
KC	Andy Reid	2-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
KC	Romeo Crennel	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
KC	Todd Haley	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
KC	Gunther Cunningham	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-0
LAR	Sean McVay	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
MIA	Nick Saban	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
NE	Bill Belichick	2-0	2-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
NO	Jim Haslett	0-2	0-2	0-0	0-0	0-0
NYJ	Todd Bowles	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-0
NYJ	Herm Edwards	1-0	0-0	1-0	0-0	0-0
OAK	Tom Cable	0-1	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-0
OAK	Art Shell	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
OAK	Bill Callahan	1-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-0
PHI	Chip Kelly	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
PIT	Mike Tomlin	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
PIT	Bill Cowher	2-0	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0
SD	Mike McCoy	2-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	2-0
SD	Marty Schottenheimer	0-2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1
SEA	Pete Carroll	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
SF	Dennis Erickson	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-0
SF	Dennis Erickson	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1
TB	Dirk Koetter	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0
TEN	Mike Vrabel	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-0
TEN	Mike Mularkey	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
WAS	Mike Shanahan	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
WAS	Norv Turner	0-1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0

	Total Record	33-35	13-15	3-1	6-9	11-10