2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Titans at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It didn’t take very long to feel foolish for switching my pick from the Colts to the Chargers last week, especially given that it was a four-unit move. The Colts did whatever they wanted against the Chargers. They moved the chains on the ground and through the air with absolute ease. It was almost as if they were doing seven-on-seven drills.

Jonathan Taylor had a tremendous three-touchdown performance against the Chargers, and I don’t see him slowing down in this game. The Titans are 22nd against the run, and while much of that was the result of T’Vondre Sweat being sidelined, it’s not like his presence alone will fix things. Sweat returned last week and actually looked like he was in shape, and yet Rhamondre Stevenson ran all over the Titans. If Tennessee couldn’t stop Stevenson, how will it deal with Taylor?

The Titans can’t generate a pass rush or stop aerial attacks either. Daniel Jones will feast off play-action opportunities and deliver passes to Tyler Warren and his myriad of decent receivers. The Titans won’t have an answer for this.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Colts were very explosive offensively last week, they were also great on the defensive side of the ball, at least until Justin Herbert went nuts in a comeback attempt in the second half. Indianapolis was able to take advantage of the Charger offensive line issues.

The Titans also have major problems on the offensive line. Cam Ward has taken the most sacks in the NFL this year, which bodes poorly against the Colts, who have generated 159 pressures through seven games. Compare this to the Titans’ 90 pressures!

Ward will be under siege all afternoon, and it’s difficult to imagine him having consistent success in this contest. He won’t have any help from his running game, given that the Colts are eighth against the run.

RECAP: The Titans money-printing machine continued to pay dividends. Anyone blindly betting against Tennessee has made loads of cash in recent years. I see no reason to move away from that.

It must be said that this is not a good spot for the Colts. They’re coming off an impressive win across the country, and now will be playing back home against a team they already beat earlier this year. And after this game, they have to battle the 4-2 Steelers.

I think there’s some serious potential for the Colts to be caught napping in this game. But even if that’s the case, it’s not out of the question that the Colts could cover. The Titans are the worst team in the NFL, and they haven’t shown any signs that they can compete with Group A or B teams. They haven’t even played against any Group A teams this year. Against Group B squads, they’ve lost 33-19 to the Rams, 41-20 to the Titans, and 31-13 to the Patriots. All of those results would obviously cover this spread.

I’m going to fade the Titans once again. This would be a huge play if I was told the Colts would definitely be focused, but I’m still going to bet 2-3 units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Favorites of exactly 14 in October are 8-3-1 against the spread since 2002. I’m not mentioning this to convince you to bet the Colts because of this trend, but rather pointing out that it’s quite OK to lay two touchdowns.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Colts, coming off a big win in San Angeles, take on the Steelers after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -11.5.

Computer Model: Colts -15.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Plenty of money on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 75% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won the last 5 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -12.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.