2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Buccaneers at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Video of the Week: I really enjoyed this short film about time travel:

The detail in this movie is great. If you watch it a second time, you see where that initial phone call came from, and you also see that James knew it was 12:07 already, but stopped short of saying so and looked at the clock.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield is just destined not to play with any veteran receivers this season. Chris Godwin was out for a while, and then Mike Evans hurt his hamstring. Godwin returned, but then was knocked out with another injury. Evans then returned, but broke his collarbone.

Fortunately for Mayfield, he was able to get Emeka Egbuka back from a hamstring on Monday night. Egbuka didn’t play all the snaps, but he should be 100 percent this week. He’ll be in a great matchup against a struggling secondary. Given that the Saints can’t generate quarterback pressure, Mayfield should be able to connect with Egbuka early and often.

Mayfield may not have to do all that much in this game anyway. The Bears just trampled the Saints with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, so we could see Rachaad White, or even Bucky Irving thrive in this game. The Buccaneers couldn’t get anything on the ground on Monday night, but Detroit has a much tougher run defense than what New Orleans possesses.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The announcers of the Bears-Saints game mentioned that Spencer Rattler had been doing a better job of taking care of the football in recent games. They jinxed Rattler because he had two early turnovers that turned into Chicago scores. Rattler was forced into doing more than the coaching staff envisioned because the Bears clamped down on Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill.

The Saints tend to get into big trouble when they can’t run the ball. Just look at the Seattle result as another example of this. The Buccaneers will treat the Saints similarly. They have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, thanks to Vita Vea, so Kamara won’t get anything on the ground.

New Orleans being incapable of running will force Rattler to beat Tampa Bay’s secondary. This doesn’t seem likely, especially with the team’s top offensive lineman, Erik McCoy, being sidelined with an injury. The Buccaneers generate consistent pressure on the quarterback, so Rattler could be forced into making plenty of mistakes.

RECAP: The narrative with the Saints, at least heading into Week 7, was that they weren’t a good team, but they had played relatively well in most games and hadn’t been blown out often. Though I credited Kellen Moore for getting the most out of his team, I never agreed with this sentiment. The Saints were getting blown out by the Cardinals and 49ers, but both teams took their foot off the gas late in the game. The Saints got wrecked at Seattle. The Giants were winning 14-3 before they self-destructed with five consecutive turnovers. The Bears destroyed New Orleans. And yes, the Saints hung around against the Bills, but Buffalo did not take them seriously.

The Buccaneers will take the Saints seriously. Not only is this a divisional matchup for them, but they’re coming off a loss on national TV. They’ll be looking to redeem themselves against one of their hated rivals, so this is a great spot for them. The Saints, meanwhile, won’t be able to compete because Rattler will be forced into doing more than the coaches want.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t understand why this line is so low, especially when considering that the pre-Week 1 line on this game was Tampa Bay -6. I won’t be scared off this pick because of a shady spread.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers are coming off a loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -6.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Slight lean on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 60% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Road Team is 147-101 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -5.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .