NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
2025 NFL Picks: 62-57-1 (-$1,285)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 26, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Video of the Week: I really enjoyed this short film about time travel:

The detail in this movie is great. If you watch it a second time, you see where that initial phone call came from, and you also see that James knew it was 12:07 already, but stopped short of saying so and looked at the clock.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield is just destined not to play with any veteran receivers this season. Chris Godwin was out for a while, and then Mike Evans hurt his hamstring. Godwin returned, but then was knocked out with another injury. Evans then returned, but broke his collarbone.

Fortunately for Mayfield, he was able to get Emeka Egbuka back from a hamstring on Monday night. Egbuka didn’t play all the snaps, but he should be 100 percent this week. He’ll be in a great matchup against a struggling secondary. Given that the Saints can’t generate quarterback pressure, Mayfield should be able to connect with Egbuka early and often.

Mayfield may not have to do all that much in this game anyway. The Bears just trampled the Saints with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, so we could see Rachaad White, or even Bucky Irving thrive in this game. The Buccaneers couldn’t get anything on the ground on Monday night, but Detroit has a much tougher run defense than what New Orleans possesses.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The announcers of the Bears-Saints game mentioned that Spencer Rattler had been doing a better job of taking care of the football in recent games. They jinxed Rattler because he had two early turnovers that turned into Chicago scores. Rattler was forced into doing more than the coaching staff envisioned because the Bears clamped down on Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill.

The Saints tend to get into big trouble when they can’t run the ball. Just look at the Seattle result as another example of this. The Buccaneers will treat the Saints similarly. They have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, thanks to Vita Vea, so Kamara won’t get anything on the ground.

New Orleans being incapable of running will force Rattler to beat Tampa Bay’s secondary. This doesn’t seem likely, especially with the team’s top offensive lineman, Erik McCoy, being sidelined with an injury. The Buccaneers generate consistent pressure on the quarterback, so Rattler could be forced into making plenty of mistakes.

RECAP: The narrative with the Saints, at least heading into Week 7, was that they weren’t a good team, but they had played relatively well in most games and hadn’t been blown out often. Though I credited Kellen Moore for getting the most out of his team, I never agreed with this sentiment. The Saints were getting blown out by the Cardinals and 49ers, but both teams took their foot off the gas late in the game. The Saints got wrecked at Seattle. The Giants were winning 14-3 before they self-destructed with five consecutive turnovers. The Bears destroyed New Orleans. And yes, the Saints hung around against the Bills, but Buffalo did not take them seriously.

The Buccaneers will take the Saints seriously. Not only is this a divisional matchup for them, but they’re coming off a loss on national TV. They’ll be looking to redeem themselves against one of their hated rivals, so this is a great spot for them. The Saints, meanwhile, won’t be able to compete because Rattler will be forced into doing more than the coaches want.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t understand why this line is so low, especially when considering that the pre-Week 1 line on this game was Tampa Bay -6. I won’t be scared off this pick because of a shady spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: I said that I won’t change more than one pick per week unless there’s a very serious injury. I’d say Vita Vea’s status qualifies as very serious. Vea has a foot injury that caused him to miss practice on Thursday and Friday. He’s listed as questionable. If you’re wondering why the spread has been dropping throughout the week, well, here it is. The sharps are loading up on the Saints because New Orleans will have a functional offense if Vea is sidelined.

Furthermore, I’m not sure if Baker Mayfield is healthy. Mayfield was listed with a knee issue, and while he doesn’t have an injury designation, he was downgraded to limited on Friday. He didn’t scramble once versus the Lions, so he may not be completely healthy.

I’m going to drop this to two units for now because even if Vea plays, there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent. If Vea is declared inactive, I will not bet this game.

PLAYER PROPS: Cade Otton already made sense because Chris Godwin is out. The best odds for him are +185 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps dragged this line down to +3.5. It’ll be interesting if they hedge with the Buccaneers if Vita Vea is declared active, but I’m willing to bet that someone knows something.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I guess someone doesn’t know anything. Vita Vea is active. However, he may not be 100 percent and could leave the game early, so I’d be careful with this one. The sharps are on the Saints, but if you would dare defy them, the best line is -3.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers are coming off a loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -6.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Lots of money on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 75% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Road Team is 147-101 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -5.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It didn’t take very long to feel foolish for switching my pick from the Colts to the Chargers last week, especially given that it was a four-unit move. The Colts did whatever they wanted against the Chargers. They moved the chains on the ground and through the air with absolute ease. It was almost as if they were doing seven-on-seven drills.

Jonathan Taylor had a tremendous three-touchdown performance against the Chargers, and I don’t see him slowing down in this game. The Titans are 22nd against the run, and while much of that was the result of T’Vondre Sweat being sidelined, it’s not like his presence alone will fix things. Sweat returned last week and actually looked like he was in shape, and yet Rhamondre Stevenson ran all over the Titans. If Tennessee couldn’t stop Stevenson, how will it deal with Taylor?

The Titans can’t generate a pass rush or stop aerial attacks either. Daniel Jones will feast off play-action opportunities and deliver passes to Tyler Warren and his myriad of decent receivers. The Titans won’t have an answer for this.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Colts were very explosive offensively last week, they were also great on the defensive side of the ball, at least until Justin Herbert went nuts in a comeback attempt in the second half. Indianapolis was able to take advantage of the Charger offensive line issues.

The Titans also have major problems on the offensive line. Cam Ward has taken the most sacks in the NFL this year, which bodes poorly against the Colts, who have generated 159 pressures through seven games. Compare this to the Titans’ 90 pressures!

Ward will be under siege all afternoon, and it’s difficult to imagine him having consistent success in this contest. He won’t have any help from his running game, given that the Colts are eighth against the run.

RECAP: The Titans money-printing machine continued to pay dividends. Anyone blindly betting against Tennessee has made loads of cash in recent years. I see no reason to move away from that.

It must be said that this is not a good spot for the Colts. They’re coming off an impressive win across the country, and now will be playing back home against a team they already beat earlier this year. And after this game, they have to battle the 4-2 Steelers.

I think there’s some serious potential for the Colts to be caught napping in this game. But even if that’s the case, it’s not out of the question that the Colts could cover. The Titans are the worst team in the NFL, and they haven’t shown any signs that they can compete with Group A or B teams. They haven’t even played against any Group A teams this year. Against Group B squads, they’ve lost 33-19 to the Rams, 41-20 to the Titans, and 31-13 to the Patriots. All of those results would obviously cover this spread.

I’m going to fade the Titans once again. This would be a huge play if I was told the Colts would definitely be focused, but I’m still going to bet 2-3 units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Favorites of exactly 14 in October are 8-3-1 against the spread since 2002. I’m not mentioning this to convince you to bet the Colts because of this trend, but rather pointing out that it’s quite OK to lay two touchdowns.

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only is Jeffery Simmons out for the Titans, Xavier Woods could be sidelined as well. Woods is Tennesee’s top-rated defensive back, so he’ll be missed if he’s not available.

PLAYER PROPS: Tyler Warren has the best odds of any tight end on Sunday, and rightfully so. The best place to bet him is at FanDuel for +110. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Colts are still the play. It’s worth noting that we haven’t take advantage of BetMGM’s 20-percent boost (up to $100) yet, so we’ll have to do that for this game or Steelers-Packers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a bit of sharp money on the Colts, pushing this line to -15. I mentioned a profit boost earlier, but it looks like we’ll need it for the Steelers, based on the vig everywhere. Luckily, we have a -14.5 -110 available at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Colts, coming off a big win in San Angeles, take on the Steelers after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -11.5.

Computer Model: Colts -15.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Slight money on the Colts early. Lots late.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 74% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won the last 5 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -12.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted two live bets during the Chiefs-Jaguars game. I tweeted out that I was betting the Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes rushing overs, and both hit. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

DENVER OFFENSE: It feels wrong to say something negative about how the Broncos performed offensively against the Giants, given that they scored 33 points in last week’s game. However, they were blanked for a while, even trailing 19-0 in the second half. Bo Nix spent most of the afternoon sailing helpless passes out of bounds. Nix eventually caught fire and led an incredible comeback, but it wasn’t pretty for a long time.

I’d say Nix will have a bounce-back performance from his first three quarters because this is an incredibly easy matchup, but it’s not like last week’s matchup was overly difficult. The Giants have a great pass rush, but they can’t cover at all, so Nix should have been able to put together a better game. Dallas has even worse issues on that side of the ball, so there won’t be excuses for another poor performance.

Nix ideally won’t even be in position to struggle. The Cowboys have the seventh-worst run defense in the NFL, so perhaps one of J.K. Dobbins or R.J. Harvey will get going. That was also a positive outlook last week, however, and the Giants are even worse against the run than the Cowboys are.

DALLAS OFFENSE: As bad as Denver’s offense was last week, the defense was arguably worse. Jaxson Dart was able to shred the Broncos for 32 points, and may have even won the game in overtime had it not been for a missed extra point late in regulation.

I assume this was some sort of fluke because the Broncos have elite defensive players and are ranked in the top 12 in defensive EPA. However, putting the clamps on the Cowboys could prove to be very difficult. Dak Prescott is playing at a very high level, and he has two terrific receivers at his disposal (plus Jake Ferguson) now that CeeDee Lamb is back from injury. The Broncos can put Patrick Surtain II on Lamb or George Pickens, but what about the other one? What about Ferguson?

While the Broncos are elite against the pass on most occasions, they’re not stout in run support. They’re a surprising 19th versus the rush, so perhaps Javonte Williams will be able to have a great revenge opportunity. Williams has shockingly reverted to the excellent runner we saw as a rookie before his torn ACL. I imagine Denver fans will be surprisd to see Williams running so well.

RECAP: I was eager to fade the Broncos last week because they were in a very tough scheduling spot, given that they had to travel from Denver, to Philadelphia, to London, and all the way back to Denver. It’s no surprise that the Broncos were so flat against the Giants. What’s puzzling me is why I switched my pick of New York for three units to Denver. I don’t know what I was thinking.

The Broncos are now in a better spot. Ideally, they would have lost to the Giants to set up a great betting opportunity here, but they won’t be nearly as fatigued as they were last week. Despite the fact that they’ll be in a better situation, the spread has gone from -4.5 on the advance line to -3. This is a huge move because we’re now getting a push with the No. 1 key number of three.

I’m inclined to take the value with the Broncos. I don’t love it – again, I wanted them to lose to the Giants in order to bet them here – but the Cowboys seem to be overrated now because of their win over the Redskins. It was a nice victory, but they still have an abysmal defense that should be exposed.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved from -3 to -3.5 despite tons of public money coming in on the Cowboys. Interesting. The Broncos look like the sharp side.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys may get Cooper Beebe back from injury, but they’ll be missing Trevon Diggs. I still have just a lean on Denver.

PLAYER PROPS: Jake Ferguson looks good here, as Denver isn’t very good against tight ends. The best odds are +175 at BetMGM.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharp money is on Denver. I would still like them, even at -3.5, if I were betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos at -3, but not at -3.5. If you still like Denver at -3.5, you can get them at -3.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The Cowboys are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 81% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 70 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It was bound to happen. After all these years, we’re finally getting the revenge we’ve all been anticipating. Of course, I’m referring to multi-billionaire Arthur Smith, who will want revenge against Matt LaFleur for making fun of his mustache during a press conference a couple of years ago. Smith has been preparing for this day, and he undoubtedly will unload his stash of super-secret plays against the Packers.

Obviously, I’m actually referring to Aaron Rodgers battling the Packers for the first time in his Hall of Fame career. If you would have asked me about this matchup four weeks ago, I would have stated that this was an impossible task Rodgers versus Green Bay’s suffocating defense. However, the Packer stop unit has been a paper tiger since Week 2. They allowed a game-winning drive to the Browns, then 40 points to the CeeDee Lamb-less Cowboys, then multiple touchdown drives to Joe Flacco, who had just arrived in Cincinnati, and then countless third-and-long conversions to Jacoby Brissett.

I don’t see why the Packers would suddenly get their act together on defense. A highly motivated Rodgers shouldn’t have much of a challenge shredding the Packers. Rodgers was hot against the Bengals, and while Cincinnati’s a joke, it’s not like Green Bay will offer much of a challenge. The secondary is especially problematic, so DK Metcalf and the tight ends figure to shine.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers have suffered just one loss since Week 3 despite their defensive struggles. This is because they’ve maintained the No. 2 offense in the NFL during that span. “No Cookie” Jordan Love hasn’t been perfect – his footwork is abysmal at times – but he’s made some big throws in clutch situations.

Love figures to pick up where Flacco left off on Thursday night. Flacco torched Pittsburgh’s struggling secondary with ease, and Love figures to do the same. Tucker Kraft has a plus matchup and should continue to thrive.

The Steelers are at least better against the run. Not counting Week 1 when they had some injuries, the Steelers are seventh against ground attacks, so they should be able to keep Josh Jacobs from dominating.

RECAP: I’m kicking myself for switching my pick from the Cardinals to the Packers last week. Fading Green Bay’s flawed defense was obvious, but I made the switch and even backed the Packers for two units.

The Packers have been a money pit since their first two games. They dominated the Lions and Redskins, but Detroit had two new coordinators and had issues preparing for the opener, while Washington stumbled on a short travel week. Since then, the Packers have not covered a single spread despite taking on the Browns, the Lamb-less Cowboys, the Bengals, and the Brissett-led Cardinals. Green Bay is overrated, and we haven’t been able to benefit from that.

It’s time for that to change. I’m on the Steelers, even without the Rodgers revenge factor. Speaking of which, Rodgers will be highly motivated, and I’m sure his new teammates would love for him to get revenge. Mike Tomlin, meanwhile, will be in a comfortable situation, as he tends to thrive as an underdog, especially off a loss.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian Watson said he’ll play in this game, but that doesn’t move the needle for me. It’s doubtful that he’s anywhere close to 100 percent. Sorry, Mr. Watson.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are only two injuries of note. For the Packers, Devonte Wyatt has a chance to return to action. He’s questionable after being limited all week. For the Steelers, center Zach Frazier is also questionable. He missed Thursday’s practice, but returned to a limited practice on Friday. I’m still on the Steelers.

PLAYER PROPS: I’d like to bet a Steelers tight end to catch a touchdown, but they have a million of them. Instead, let’s look at Tucker Kraft, who will do more this week with Dontayvion Wicks sidelined. The best odds are +150 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing new to add here, as we await the inactives list. I can’t imagine backing off the Steelers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers will be getting Devonte Wyatt and Christian Watson back from injury, but the sharps are on the Steelers. They’ve dragged this line down to +2.5 in most places. You can still get +3 -120 at BetMGM. Luckily, we have a 20-percent boost, up to $100.

The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.

This is obvious.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Decent action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 67% (222,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Matt LaFleur is 60-45 ATS in the regular season.

Matt LaFleur is 7-3 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Mike Tomlin is 64-36 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 137-101 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 32-24 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 44-28 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 49 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Washington Foreskins. Guys, something I’ve always wondered is why does Kansas City exist in the state of Missouri? You’d think it would be in Kansas. I learned about these states last week in Mother’s social studies homeschool class. I hate to brag, but there was a pop quiz, and I aced it!

Emmitt: Thanks, Ace. I was very disappointment when I was in the University States of Florida Colleges, and the teacher once say we has a pop quiz. I was already hungry, so I was glad that the teacher say we gonna eat pop corned. But soon I founded out that pop quiz do not mean a quiz that comed with pop corned. This disappointedmented me more than when I learn that Santa Clus were not real. I founded this out when I turn 18 and my mama telled me this when I ask if I could sit on Santa lap at the mall like I did a year ago.

Reilly: Emmitt, I can’t believe you thought Santa was real up until 18. Mother told me about Santa when I was 16, but I still wanted to sit on Santa’s lap at the mall because there was a chance he was real dad. But now I have New Daddy, so I don’t seek out Santas at the mall. Thank you so much, New Daddy, you mean everything to me!

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Tollefson: Reilly, if I may, you sound pathetic right now. Sitting on Santa’s lap is for loser kids. Now, stealing sexy Santa’s helpers and trapping them in your cellar until you force them to cook and clean naked for you is the way to go. I’m grateful for Santa and all of his sex slaves, I mean helpers!

Reilly: Tolly, when I visit Santa, I’m too focused on him instead of the helpers. If I’m not focused, and I forget to tell him what I really want for Christmas, how am I going to get what I really want, which is obviously more Nick Foles bobblehead dolls? Clarissa Thomas, can you tell everyone that it’s normal to sit on old men’s laps because you probably do that all the time?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Santa. I have some breaking news for you. Patrick Mahomes has been suspended 2-and-a-half quarters of this game because he sat on the laps of Xavier Worthy and Andy Reid while eating pepperoni pizza. Back to you, Santa.

Reilly: That may not seem like it could possibly be true, but Clarissa Thompkins is the most accurate reporter in the business and would never make anything up. Mina Klein, you sound like you want to say something.

Mina Kimes: I know this is a football show, and I would normally declare how I think Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, but I need to say something. How offensive is it that Santa is a cis white man? How do we know that Santa isn’t a woman, specifically an Asian woman who happens to be a sharp NFL analyst? An Asian woman who can be the only one to tell you that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback? Why can’t people sit on my lap, huh? Is my lap that uninviting? Is it because everyone’s jealous of my amazing NFL analysis?

Reilly: I hear you, Mino, I wish guys would sit on my lap, too. And by guys, I mean Nick Foles, Jalen Hurts, and Saquon Barkley.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! FIRST OF ALL, IT’S MINA KIMES! MINA WITH AN A. NOT MINO. RESPECT THE BEST ANALYST IN THE NFL. ARE YOU DISRESPECTING HER BECAUSE SHE’S AN ASIAN NFL ANALYST? AND SECOND, WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE PEDDLING HOMOPHOBIA? DON’T BELITTLE MEN SITTING ON OTHER MEN’S LAPS! IT’S A PERFECTLY NORMAL THING THAT MEN SIT ON EACH OTHER’S LAPS, SO HOW DARE YOU TRIVIALIZE IT!?

Reilly: Whoa, I’m not trivializing anything! The only trivializing I do is when I play Trivial Pursuit with Mother. She always wins the adult version, so we have to play the kid version for me to have a chance, but I still lose.

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about board games, Kevin. We can talk about other board games, Kevin, such as Monopoly, Kevin. Why don’t we get to Sorry, Kevin? What about Scrabble, Kevin? Let’s get to Clue, Kevin. Kevin doesn’t have a clue, Kevin. We can transition to Yahtzee, Kevin. How about Candy Land, Kevin? Don’t forget about Chutes and Ladders, Kevin. Next is Mystery Date, Kevin, which is just Kevin’s Mother, Kevin. Then there’s the Game of Life, Kevin, which you’ve failed at, Kevin. And of course, there’s Kevin Reilly Is a Loser Game, Kevin.

Reilly: Yeah, right! As if that game exists! Wait, does it? If so, that can’t possibly be about me. Have you seen my Nick Foles bobblehead collection!? We’ll be back right after this!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: We bet Jayden Daniels’ rushing yards live on Sunday, so of course he suffered an injury. Of course. Daniels hurt his hamstring, so he could be out once again. If so, it’ll be Marcus Mariota, who’s had some mixed performances. He thrived against the Raiders in Week 3, but then was blown out in Atlanta the following Sunday.

Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top defenses. Atlanta can be described as such, but the Chiefs cannot. Kansas City’s not bad defensively, but ranks only 18th in EPA. Their biggest problem is stopping the run. They rank 24th versus the rush, so Jacory Croskey-Merritt could have a solid game if given the opportunity. The problem there is that the Redskins might be far behind in this game, which would force Mariota to pass more than the coaching staff would want.

Mariota will have some issues dealing with the pass rush. The Chiefs have a strong defensive line that has accumulated 122 pressures through seven games. We saw Mariota throw a pick-six against Dallas’ abysmal defense when he was pressured, so perhaps he’ll make the same mistake in this game.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes, conversely, didn’t make any mistakes last week. Everything was easy for him. He moved up and down the field against the Raiders with ease, thanks to the return of Rashee Rice.

The Raiders have an atrocious defense that was made worse by Maxx Crosby’s injury, but it’s not like the Redskins are much better. Washington is ranked 27th in defensive EPA, thanks to incredibly slow linebackers and a suspect run defense that allowed Javonte Williams to look like Emmitt Smith last week. The Redskins were, in fact, debacled.

Mahomes shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains consistently in this game. With his full complement of weapons, Mahomes can expose all the best matchups. He’ll also scramble when needed, and I wouldn’t count on Washington’s slow linebackers to do anything about it.

RECAP: We don’t know Daniels’ status, so it’s difficult to make a prediction on this game right now. If it’s Daniels, 10.5 is a ton of points for a talented quarterback. Given that the Chiefs can’t run the ball, the back door will be wide open for him. I would definitely be on Washington at +10.5 in this scenario, but then again, the line could drop.

If Mariota gets the nod, that makes things more difficult. The Chiefs have to take on the Bills next week, so they could look past the Redskins, given that they’ll believe that beating Mariota isn’t a tough task. I like backing reserve quarterbacks against non-elite defenses, but I don’t think I’d bet the Redskins because I wouldn’t trust the back-door possibility as much.

I’ll have a definitive pick on this game once we learn Daniels’ status. Check back later for updates!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jayden Daniels has been ruled out, moving this line to -12.5. After thinking about it, I’m going to side with the Chiefs. I don’t trust Marcus Mariota against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins won’t have Jayden Daniels, and Da’Ron Payne looks like he’ll be out as well. However, both Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel practiced fully on Friday. Meanwhile, Trey Smith missed both practices so far, which is not ideal. I still like the Chiefs for a couple of units at the very least.

PLAYER PROPS: Travis Kelce cares more about scoring touchdowns than anything at this point in his career, and Monday counts as National Tight Ends Day. The best odds are -107 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

But wait, there’s more! Not only are we betting all of these tight end touchdowns, we’re going to parlay them, too! We’ll do this parlay at BetMGM because it has a 20-percent profit boost. Included in the parlay are: George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry, Cade Otton, Tyler Warren, Jake Ferguson, Tucker Kraft, and Travis Kelce. This $10 parlay pays $210,503.31. Yes. This is a once-per-year thing, so let’s have some fun.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has dropped a bit because Trey Smith is out, while both Redskins receivers are back. I still like the Chiefs though.

PROMOS: FanDuel has a no-sweat token for $25. We’re going to use that on Chiefs -10.5. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a 33-percent boost for SGPs, so we’ll build one there. We’re going with Travis Kelce anytime touchdown, Brashard Smith over 15.5 receptions, and Marcus Mariota over 28.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $199.50.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Chiefs, while the sharps are on the Redskins. I’d rather be on the sharp side of a game, but sometimes the public is correct. The best line is -10 -111 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Chiefs just won in a blowout. After this game, they take on the Bills.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Plenty of action on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 72% (230,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Redskins are 16-9 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Patrick Mahomes is 104-28 SU, 70-60 ATS (56-46 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -5.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 55 degrees. Light wind.