2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Vikings at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Week 7 Analysis: A frustrating Sunday, to say the least. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Browns, 5 units (win): We begin on a positive note. Our top Sunday play was a winner. This one was never in doubt past the first quarter.

Patriots, 3 units (win): We won this one as well, but this was part of my frustration in Week 7. I made numerous unit and pick changes based on the Friday injury report and/or the Sunday weather report. Every single one of them backfired. That’s not an exaggeration. Every single one, including this pick, because it was originally a five-unit selection. I loved the Patriots all week, but I saw the sharps come in on the Titans because the weather report said it was going to be extremely windy in Tennessee. This would naturally hurt the Patriots more than the Titans, so no wonder the sharps were backing Tennessee. Naturally, the weather wasn’t any sort of factor, which is a reminder that the weather, itself, is extremely difficult to predict. That, or weathermen lie all the time so people will go out and buy stuff. I don’t know which one is true, but I’m done relying on these nonsense weather reports that never come true.

Oh, and if losing out on two more units wasn’t enough, I swapped out Drake Maye and Kayshon Boutte from my DraftKings lineup in favor of Jayden Daniels, who got hurt, and Rashid Shaheed, who did nothing as his teammate Chris Olave scored two touchdowns. The crazy thing is that I still cashed this lineup in the $100 Spy, so imagine how good it would have been with Maye and Boutte!

Chargers, 4 units (loss): Here’s another change that backfired. I initially had the Colts marked down for no units. Not only did I talk myself into a pick change; I made this a three-unit play, and then increased the unit count to four after a strong 1 p.m. slate! I’m done making wholesale changes like this. Unless there’s an extreme injury – i.e. an injured quarterback – I’m not going to make more than one change per week, and I’ll try to limit it to zero changes most times.

Giants, 3 units (N/A): I didn’t actually bet the Giants, but I had them down initially as a three-unit selection. This was yet another foolish change. I swapped to the Broncos like an idiot.

Those aren’t the only changes I made. I went from zero units on the Panthers to two units on the Jets (loss), and I went from no units on the Cardinals to two units on the Packers (loss). In summary, the changes I made cost me 13 units. That’s $1,300, plus the vig. Unreal.

Anyway, let’s move on to the Monday games:

Lions, 5 units (win): A nice win that had some drama to it for a while. We got lucky with Mike Evans getting hurt, but Evans was hobbling around the entire time and couldn’t catch a single pass.

Seahawk, 4 units (win): The Seahawks’ incompetence made this far more interesting than it should have been. We also hit both of our live bets in this game.

We came out of Week 7 up $1,160. Had I not made those changes, we would have made about $2,500 in Week 7. That’s insane.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: As of this writing, it’s unclear which quarterback the Vikings are going to start. Carson Wentz had a rough first half against the Eagles, but led a near-comeback following intermission. Given that this is such a short work week, the Vikings may want to wait until Week 9 to switch back to J.J. McCarthy, provided Wentz doesn’t impress in this game.

Wentz will be able to impress. The Vikings have a very easy matchup against the Chargers, given that the Colts were able to do whatever they pleased versus San Angeles. I thought Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman returning would help, but that was not the case. Mack played only 12 snaps, while Perryman looked slow and out of shape. I suspect they’ll be 100 percent soon, but that seems like a tall ask on just three days of rest. You have to hand it to the NFL for making it extremely difficult for players to recover from injuries. Roger Goodell claims to care about player safety, but nothing could be further from the truth.

At any rate, Jordan Mason figures to have a big game unless Perryman can magically return to form. This will make life easier for Wentz, who should pick up where he left off in the second half versus Philadelphia, which is when he targeted Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison for big gains.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Mack and Perryman aren’t the only players who could use a regular week off to return to form. Joe Alt would have a decent chance of playing on Sunday, but given that he was doubtful for Week 7, it seems unlikely that he’ll be ready to go just four days later.

Justin Herbert’s blocking was woeful against the Colts, and that’ll continue to be the case versus Minnesota. The Vikings have 112 pressures through just six games – compared to the Chargers’ 119 pressures through seven contests – so they’ll be able to swarm Herbert like the Colts did. Herbert and his receivers are great, so they’ll be able to put together some scoring drives, but they’ll be inconsistent in doing so.

Herbert would love to turn to his running game, but that may not work so well. The stats say that Kimani Vidal has a favorable matchup, but Blake Cashman’s return to action last week helped stuff Saquon Barkley. Cashman will be a healthier this week, and there’s a chance Andrew Van Ginkel will be able to return as well.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

Given the injuries the Chargers are dealing with, I actually have these teams rated evenly. The Chargers have no home-field advantage – there will probably be more Vikings fans in the stands – so I would only give them a point for being at home at the very most. Thus, I made this line -1.

We’re getting some value with the Vikings, but I’m hesitant to bet this game. The Vikings are traveling to the West Coast on such a short work week – thanks for the great scheduling, NFL – and Thursday games are usually a mess anyway, so I’m going to lay off wagering on Minnesota and instead focus on live betting, which is content I post on X (@walterfootball).

Our Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If this line move is any indication, Joe Alt has a decent chance of playing after being limited all week. Meanwhile, Christian Darrisaw was DNP on Wednesday, so he’s in danger of missing this game. I’m going to switch to the Chargers, but I don’t anticipate betting this game.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to do a live prop bet at some point tonight, so watch out for that on X. As far as this same-game parlay, we’re getting a 30-percent boost on DraftKings. We’re going with T.J. Hockenson over 3.5 receptions, Kimani Vidal over 57.5 rushing yards, and Carson Wentz over 12.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $146. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

PROMOS: FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost for this game, up to $25. We’re going to bet the Chargers -3 +109. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

BetMGM has a no-sweat bet for this game, up to $20. We’re going to take a shot on Kimani Vidal 75+ rushing yards at +160.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both left tackles will play. Joe Alt and Christian Darrisaw will suit up, which means that the Chargers will be able to block the opposition for the first time since Week 4. I like them to cover the spread for that reason. The best line is -3 -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Chargers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 59% (247,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jim Harbaugh is 12-6 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.