2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Packers at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It was bound to happen. After all these years, we’re finally getting the revenge we’ve all been anticipating. Of course, I’m referring to multi-billionaire Arthur Smith, who will want revenge against Matt LaFleur for making fun of his mustache during a press conference a couple of years ago. Smith has been preparing for this day, and he undoubtedly will unload his stash of super-secret plays against the Packers.

Obviously, I’m actually referring to Aaron Rodgers battling the Packers for the first time in his Hall of Fame career. If you would have asked me about this matchup four weeks ago, I would have stated that this was an impossible task Rodgers versus Green Bay’s suffocating defense. However, the Packer stop unit has been a paper tiger since Week 2. They allowed a game-winning drive to the Browns, then 40 points to the CeeDee Lamb-less Cowboys, then multiple touchdown drives to Joe Flacco, who had just arrived in Cincinnati, and then countless third-and-long conversions to Jacoby Brissett.

I don’t see why the Packers would suddenly get their act together on defense. A highly motivated Rodgers shouldn’t have much of a challenge shredding the Packers. Rodgers was hot against the Bengals, and while Cincinnati’s a joke, it’s not like Green Bay will offer much of a challenge. The secondary is especially problematic, so DK Metcalf and the tight ends figure to shine.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers have suffered just one loss since Week 3 despite their defensive struggles. This is because they’ve maintained the No. 2 offense in the NFL during that span. “No Cookie” Jordan Love hasn’t been perfect – his footwork is abysmal at times – but he’s made some big throws in clutch situations.

Love figures to pick up where Flacco left off on Thursday night. Flacco torched Pittsburgh’s struggling secondary with ease, and Love figures to do the same. Tucker Kraft has a plus matchup and should continue to thrive.

The Steelers are at least better against the run. Not counting Week 1 when they had some injuries, the Steelers are seventh against ground attacks, so they should be able to keep Josh Jacobs from dominating.

RECAP: I’m kicking myself for switching my pick from the Cardinals to the Packers last week. Fading Green Bay’s flawed defense was obvious, but I made the switch and even backed the Packers for two units.

The Packers have been a money pit since their first two games. They dominated the Lions and Redskins, but Detroit had two new coordinators and had issues preparing for the opener, while Washington stumbled on a short travel week. Since then, the Packers have not covered a single spread despite taking on the Browns, the Lamb-less Cowboys, the Bengals, and the Brissett-led Cardinals. Green Bay is overrated, and we haven’t been able to benefit from that.

It’s time for that to change. I’m on the Steelers, even without the Rodgers revenge factor. Speaking of which, Rodgers will be highly motivated, and I’m sure his new teammates would love for him to get revenge. Mike Tomlin, meanwhile, will be in a comfortable situation, as he tends to thrive as an underdog, especially off a loss.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian Watson said he’ll play in this game, but that doesn’t move the needle for me. It’s doubtful that he’s anywhere close to 100 percent. Sorry, Mr. Watson.

The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.

This is obvious.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Decent action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 66% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt LaFleur is 60-45 ATS in the regular season.

Matt LaFleur is 7-3 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Mike Tomlin is 64-36 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 137-101 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 32-24 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 44-28 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .