2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Jets at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I thought what Joe Flacco did in the second half of the Packers game was a mirage. Green Bay’s defense has struggled since Week 3, so I figured Flacco’s performance was another instance of that. Instead, Flacco was terrific beyond the opening quarter against the Steelers. Pittsburgh had no answer for Flacco, who frequently connected with Ja’Marr Chase for big gains.

There’s no reason to expect that to change this week. Sauce Gardner isn’t even much of a possibility to slow down Chase because he’s in concussion protocol. If Gardner isn’t available, Chase will go nuts again. Flacco won’t be stopped by New York’s pathetic defense.

There also might be some hope for Chase Brown, believe it or not. Brown has been a colossal bust this year, but only due to circumstances around him like bad quarterbacking and terrible offensive line play. However, the Jets can’t stop the run at all, so Brown could have his best game of the year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s unclear which quarterback will start for the Jets this week. Justin Fields was benched despite not having his only viable receiver at his disposal. Garrett Wilson was sidelined, and it might be difficult for him to play in this game. Aaron Glenn said that he “hopes” Wilson plays, but that doesn’t provide us with any insight.

Even if Wilson can’t suit up, the Jets will have more success moving the ball this week, and not only by default. The Bengals are far worse defensively than the Panthers. They can’t pressure the quarterback – only 94 pressures through seven games – and they can’t cover well either. They’re awful versus tight ends, so Mason Taylor should have a big game.

Cincinnati’s run defense is also abysmal. Breece Hall got dinged up versus the Panthers, but is expected to be fine for this contest. He could have a strong performance to make life easier for his quarterback.

RECAP: Talk about an overreaction! The advance line on this game was Bengals -2.5. This spread opened -5.5 and has since moved to -6.5. There’s even a -7 available at DraftKings. All because Flacco had three great quarters against the Steelers!

I typically like to fade these overreactions, but that would involve backing the Jets. That may seem like a terrible proposition, but keep in mind that the Jets have kept games close against the Broncos, Buccaneers, and Steelers. They’ve lost by seven or more on just two occasions. Both of their quarterbacks have a knack for scoring late in garbage time to get within one score against non-elite opponents.

The Bengals certainly are not an elite opponent. Their defense is atrocious, and they can’t run the ball to chew up the clock in the fourth quarter, so they’ll keep the back door wide open for the Jets, if they even need it.

I’m going to be betting the Jets. I’ll mark them down for two units right now, but I’ll increase the unit count to three if Wilson is available. Wilson is such an important piece to this offense because he’s the only viable downfield threat, so he’s worth a whole unit at the very least.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Tyrod Taylor will be named the starter. Taylor covered at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are a better team than the Bengals, so Taylor should be able to stay within the number, though that may take a back-door cover.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Bengals are coming off a big win versus the Steelers on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -2.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 84% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .