NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
2025 NFL Picks: 62-57-1 (-$1,285)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 26, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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Week 7 Analysis: A frustrating Sunday, to say the least. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Browns, 5 units (win): We begin on a positive note. Our top Sunday play was a winner. This one was never in doubt past the first quarter.

Patriots, 3 units (win): We won this one as well, but this was part of my frustration in Week 7. I made numerous unit and pick changes based on the Friday injury report and/or the Sunday weather report. Every single one of them backfired. That’s not an exaggeration. Every single one, including this pick, because it was originally a five-unit selection. I loved the Patriots all week, but I saw the sharps come in on the Titans because the weather report said it was going to be extremely windy in Tennessee. This would naturally hurt the Patriots more than the Titans, so no wonder the sharps were backing Tennessee. Naturally, the weather wasn’t any sort of factor, which is a reminder that the weather, itself, is extremely difficult to predict. That, or weathermen lie all the time so people will go out and buy stuff. I don’t know which one is true, but I’m done relying on these nonsense weather reports that never come true.

Oh, and if losing out on two more units wasn’t enough, I swapped out Drake Maye and Kayshon Boutte from my DraftKings lineup in favor of Jayden Daniels, who got hurt, and Rashid Shaheed, who did nothing as his teammate Chris Olave scored two touchdowns. The crazy thing is that I still cashed this lineup in the $100 Spy, so imagine how good it would have been with Maye and Boutte!

Chargers, 4 units (loss): Here’s another change that backfired. I initially had the Colts marked down for no units. Not only did I talk myself into a pick change; I made this a three-unit play, and then increased the unit count to four after a strong 1 p.m. slate! I’m done making wholesale changes like this. Unless there’s an extreme injury – i.e. an injured quarterback – I’m not going to make more than one change per week, and I’ll try to limit it to zero changes most times.

Giants, 3 units (N/A): I didn’t actually bet the Giants, but I had them down initially as a three-unit selection. This was yet another foolish change. I swapped to the Broncos like an idiot.

Those aren’t the only changes I made. I went from zero units on the Panthers to two units on the Jets (loss), and I went from no units on the Cardinals to two units on the Packers (loss). In summary, the changes I made cost me 13 units. That’s $1,300, plus the vig. Unreal.

Anyway, let’s move on to the Monday games:

Lions, 5 units (win): A nice win that had some drama to it for a while. We got lucky with Mike Evans getting hurt, but Evans was hobbling around the entire time and couldn’t catch a single pass.

Seahawk, 4 units (win): The Seahawks’ incompetence made this far more interesting than it should have been. We also hit both of our live bets in this game.

We came out of Week 7 up $1,160. Had I not made those changes, we would have made about $2,500 in Week 7. That’s insane.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: As of this writing, it’s unclear which quarterback the Vikings are going to start. Carson Wentz had a rough first half against the Eagles, but led a near-comeback following intermission. Given that this is such a short work week, the Vikings may want to wait until Week 9 to switch back to J.J. McCarthy, provided Wentz doesn’t impress in this game.

Wentz will be able to impress. The Vikings have a very easy matchup against the Chargers, given that the Colts were able to do whatever they pleased versus San Angeles. I thought Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman returning would help, but that was not the case. Mack played only 12 snaps, while Perryman looked slow and out of shape. I suspect they’ll be 100 percent soon, but that seems like a tall ask on just three days of rest. You have to hand it to the NFL for making it extremely difficult for players to recover from injuries. Roger Goodell claims to care about player safety, but nothing could be further from the truth.

At any rate, Jordan Mason figures to have a big game unless Perryman can magically return to form. This will make life easier for Wentz, who should pick up where he left off in the second half versus Philadelphia, which is when he targeted Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison for big gains.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Mack and Perryman aren’t the only players who could use a regular week off to return to form. Joe Alt would have a decent chance of playing on Sunday, but given that he was doubtful for Week 7, it seems unlikely that he’ll be ready to go just four days later.

Justin Herbert’s blocking was woeful against the Colts, and that’ll continue to be the case versus Minnesota. The Vikings have 112 pressures through just six games – compared to the Chargers’ 119 pressures through seven contests – so they’ll be able to swarm Herbert like the Colts did. Herbert and his receivers are great, so they’ll be able to put together some scoring drives, but they’ll be inconsistent in doing so.

Herbert would love to turn to his running game, but that may not work so well. The stats say that Kimani Vidal has a favorable matchup, but Blake Cashman’s return to action last week helped stuff Saquon Barkley. Cashman will be a healthier this week, and there’s a chance Andrew Van Ginkel will be able to return as well.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

Given the injuries the Chargers are dealing with, I actually have these teams rated evenly. The Chargers have no home-field advantage – there will probably be more Vikings fans in the stands – so I would only give them a point for being at home at the very most. Thus, I made this line -1.

We’re getting some value with the Vikings, but I’m hesitant to bet this game. The Vikings are traveling to the West Coast on such a short work week – thanks for the great scheduling, NFL – and Thursday games are usually a mess anyway, so I’m going to lay off wagering on Minnesota and instead focus on live betting, which is content I post on X (@walterfootball).

Our Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If this line move is any indication, Joe Alt has a decent chance of playing after being limited all week. Meanwhile, Christian Darrisaw was DNP on Wednesday, so he’s in danger of missing this game. I’m going to switch to the Chargers, but I don’t anticipate betting this game.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to do a live prop bet at some point tonight, so watch out for that on X. As far as this same-game parlay, we’re getting a 30-percent boost on DraftKings. We’re going with T.J. Hockenson over 3.5 receptions, Kimani Vidal over 57.5 rushing yards, and Carson Wentz over 12.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $146. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

PROMOS: FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost for this game, up to $25. We’re going to bet the Chargers -3 +109. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

BetMGM has a no-sweat bet for this game, up to $20. We’re going to take a shot on Kimani Vidal 75+ rushing yards at +160.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both left tackles will play. Joe Alt and Christian Darrisaw will suit up, which means that the Chargers will be able to block the opposition for the first time since Week 4. I like them to cover the spread for that reason. The best line is -3 -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Chargers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 59% (247,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 12-6 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I thought what Joe Flacco did in the second half of the Packers game was a mirage. Green Bay’s defense has struggled since Week 3, so I figured Flacco’s performance was another instance of that. Instead, Flacco was terrific beyond the opening quarter against the Steelers. Pittsburgh had no answer for Flacco, who frequently connected with Ja’Marr Chase for big gains.

There’s no reason to expect that to change this week. Sauce Gardner isn’t even much of a possibility to slow down Chase because he’s in concussion protocol. If Gardner isn’t available, Chase will go nuts again. Flacco won’t be stopped by New York’s pathetic defense.

There also might be some hope for Chase Brown, believe it or not. Brown has been a colossal bust this year, but only due to circumstances around him like bad quarterbacking and terrible offensive line play. However, the Jets can’t stop the run at all, so Brown could have his best game of the year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s unclear which quarterback will start for the Jets this week. Justin Fields was benched despite not having his only viable receiver at his disposal. Garrett Wilson was sidelined, and it might be difficult for him to play in this game. Aaron Glenn said that he “hopes” Wilson plays, but that doesn’t provide us with any insight.

Even if Wilson can’t suit up, the Jets will have more success moving the ball this week, and not only by default. The Bengals are far worse defensively than the Panthers. They can’t pressure the quarterback – only 94 pressures through seven games – and they can’t cover well either. They’re awful versus tight ends, so Mason Taylor should have a big game.

Cincinnati’s run defense is also abysmal. Breece Hall got dinged up versus the Panthers, but is expected to be fine for this contest. He could have a strong performance to make life easier for his quarterback.

RECAP: Talk about an overreaction! The advance line on this game was Bengals -2.5. This spread opened -5.5 and has since moved to -6.5. There’s even a -7 available at DraftKings. All because Flacco had three great quarters against the Steelers!

I typically like to fade these overreactions, but that would involve backing the Jets. That may seem like a terrible proposition, but keep in mind that the Jets have kept games close against the Broncos, Buccaneers, and Steelers. They’ve lost by seven or more on just two occasions. Both of their quarterbacks have a knack for scoring late in garbage time to get within one score against non-elite opponents.

The Bengals certainly are not an elite opponent. Their defense is atrocious, and they can’t run the ball to chew up the clock in the fourth quarter, so they’ll keep the back door wide open for the Jets, if they even need it.

I’m going to be betting the Jets. I’ll mark them down for two units right now, but I’ll increase the unit count to three if Wilson is available. Wilson is such an important piece to this offense because he’s the only viable downfield threat, so he’s worth a whole unit at the very least.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Tyrod Taylor will be named the starter. Taylor covered at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are a better team than the Bengals, so Taylor should be able to stay within the number, though that may take a back-door cover.

SATURDAY NOTES: I said I wouldn’t change picks, but I did note that I would only do so in case of major injuries. Plus, I reserved one change per week, maximum. That’ll be in this game. Trey Hendrickson was DNP on Friday, which is what probably caused the line to drop. However, the Jets won’t have Sauce Gardner or Garrett Wilson again. Tyrod Taylor is banged up. And the owner said some not-nice things about Justin Fields, so there’s a chance the players could quit on the owner, at least until they realize they need to play hard to earn their next contract. They could be a no-show this week.

UPDATE: Justin Fields will start for the injured Tyrod Taylor. I like the Jets a bit more now, and I’ll go back to siding with them for two units. I think the players will play hard for Fields in order to rally around him after what the owner said about him. So, in a sense, I never made a change to my picks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trey Hendrickson will play, but that likely won’t bother the sharps because they’ve been on the Jets in the past 24 hours. They’ve dropped the line from +6.5 to +6, to +5.5. Most books have dropped this line to +5.5, but you can still get +6 -11 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Bengals are coming off a big win versus the Steelers on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -2.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 73% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 57 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 5-20 heading into Week 7.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -6.5

Colts +1.5

Dolphins +2.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bengals -6.5

Cowboys +3.5

49ers +1.5

Buccaneers -4.5

The public isn’t winning with favorites, so I guess they’re trying underdogs now.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers are catching the Texans at the right time. The right time for the 49ers, that is. That’s because George Kittle has returned to improve the offense.

I’m not referencing Kittle because the Texans have a big weakness to tight ends, though Kittle does have a favorable matchup in this contest. Kittle notably helps a lot in the running game. Christian McCaffrey, while making big plays as a receiver, struggled to find running room in the first six weeks of the season. That changed Sunday night, as Kittle was around to help McCaffrey burst through larger running lanes. That’ll be key here, as the Texans happen to be far worse against the run than the pass.

Speaking of the pass, we don’t know if Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall will be available. It’s not ideal if it’s Mac Jones again, though he’ll just be asked to be a game manager in a matchup against one of the best aerial defenses in the NFL. Protecting Jones (or Purdy) will be crucial against the Texans’ fierce pass rush. That’ll be possible with Trent Williams and Colton McKivitz blocking on the edge.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans were faced with a colossal mismatch against the Seahawks. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, while Seattle has one of the best defensive fronts in the league. The result was C.J. Stroud struggling through three-and-a-half quarters. Stroud had a deer-in-the-headlights look at times.

If the 49ers still had a healthy Nick Bosa, I wouldn’t give Stroud much of a chance. However, Bosa’s absence means that San Francisco’s pass rush is diminished. The 49ers have only 106 pressures through seven games, so Stroud will have much more time in this contest. This will give him a chance to hook up with Nico Collins for some deep passes, provided that Collins is available to play after suffering a concussion Monday night.

Stroud may also have some relief from the running game. Moving the ball on the ground was impossible against Seattle’s elite ground defense, but with Fred Warner sidelined, the Texans will be better in this regard. If the coaching staff is smart enough to utilize Woody Marks and abandon the decrepit Nick Chubb, they’ll pick up big chunks via the rushing attack.

RECAP: The 49ers were favored in last week’s game, but it still feels like they’re coming off an upset loss because everyone and their evil stepmother was backing the Falcons. This automatically puts them into a bad spot, especially given that they opened as road favorites in this matchup. I can understand why the public wants to bet the 49ers over the Texans, but it’s impossible to ignore the line value. Houston was -2 on the advance line, so the +1.5 line provided us with some decent value. The Texans are now favored, however, due to sharp action coming in on them.

I’m not a big fan of backing bad teams off short work weeks, but I’m going to side with the Texans. Stroud and his entire offense will have a much easier time in this game against San Francisco’s injury-ravaged defense. Going against McCaffrey will be tough, but I could see the Texans pulling a home upset against San Francisco’s skeleton-crew roster.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ricky Pearsall continued to miss practice, but Brock Purdy at least returned to a limited practice, so he has a chance to return to action.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers are a disaster right now. Not only are Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall out again, on top of the guys on IR – Nick Bosa, Fred Warner – they’re also going to be without Bryce Huff, who has the most pressures on the team, by far, as well as center Jake Brendel, who is the top-rated interior lineman on the team. Sharp money is coming in on the Texans, so I’m considering a small bet on them. I know this would violate my new-change policy, so perhaps I won’t do it after all.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to bet some tight end touchdowns this week because it’s National Tight End Day. We’re not going to bet touchdowns for every tight end, but just those in favorable situations. George Kittle has a tough matchup, but he’s the founder of National Tight End Day, so I like him to score in this game, especially after doing nothing last week. The best odds are +185 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Texans, which isn’t a surprise. If you want to follow them, the best line is -2.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The 49ers are off a big pseudo upset win over the Falcons on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.

Computer Model: Texans -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Everyone is back on the 49ers bandwagon.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 88% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a reply on X:

It sucks that this person deleted his comment, but it went something like, “I thought your 350-pound fat a** was boycotting this game!?”

Meanwhile, I had some fun replying to idiots who believe that trans people are a real thing. No one in the history of humanity has ever changed their gender, no matter how many pointless surgeries they’ve had, but idiots don’t seem to understand this concept:

Whoa, mind blown! If there’s no such thing as WalterFootball.com, what are you reading right now!?

Another one:

Tylenol is a good explanation for why there are so many whack jobs out there. Here’s the rest of the conversation:

Imagine being dumb enough to believe that you can change the chromosome your dad gave you from X to Y, or vice versa, simply by wearing odd clothes and having some external surgeries. Yikes.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: We must begin with the Ravens because that’s where all the uncertainty lies. Lamar Jackson was expected to return from injury this week, but he didn’t practice on Monday. I laughed when I saw someone on X say that Jackson recovers slower than some old lady who had fallen down at the nursing home.

Jackson’s presence obviously has an immense impact on this game. The Ravens won’t have much of a chance against an improved Chicago defense with either Cooper Rush or Tyler Huntley, but Jackson will be able to break free for some long gains on the ground. I don’t trust the Chicago ends to keep him in the pocket like the Lions did several weeks ago. Jackson will also attack a secondary missing its best cornerback.

Derrick Henry will also benefit from Jackson’s presence. Defending Henry is very difficult with Jackson beside him in the pocket. If Jackson is out, however, Chicago’s 11th-ranked run defense should be able to keep Henry in check.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: We’re awaiting major injury news on this side of the ball as well. Half of Baltimore’s defense was sidelined for a couple of games prior to the bye. We know that someone like Nnamdi Madubuike will not be returning, but Roquan Smith and others being available would be huge.

It’s difficult to diagnose this matchup at the moment because we don’t know which Baltimore players will be available. What we do know is that the Ravens showcased one of the worst defenses in the NFL because of their countless injuries. The only team worse against the rush is the Bengals, and we know that Ben Johnson really wants to run the ball. D’Andre Swift will have a big game if the important Ravens are still sidelined.

The Ravens are also generating no pressure on the quarterback. Caleb Williams could have all the time in the world behind his improved offensive line to find his plethora of weapons for consistent, substantial gains.

RECAP: It’s impossible to give you a confident pick at the moment. We simply don’t know the status of Jackson and all of the key defenders who have a chance to return this week. If Jackson and enough defenders return, I’ll be on the Ravens. If it’s just Jackson, but most of the defensive players are still out, I’ll side with the Bears. If no one on Baltimore returns, Chicago could be a big play for us.

Check back later in the week for an update on this selection!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The good news for the Ravens is that most of their defensive players returned to practice in some capacity. In fact, all but Marlon Humphrey practiced. The bad news is that while Lamar Jackson was limited in practice, he shared reps with Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley.

SATURDAY NOTES: If Lamar Jackson is back and healthy, the Ravens look great. All of their defensive players will return, save for Nnamdi Madubuike. Jackson is questionable, which is worrying. He was full in Friday’s practice, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be 100 percent. However, something else to consider is that the Bears will be without their top three cornerbacks, as Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon will be out, while Jaylon Johnson is already on IR. I’m going to take my two units on the Jets and throw them on the Ravens. Remember, this is not a pick change because I was undecided earlier in the week.

UPDATE: The Ravens lied on the injury report. They claimed Lamar Jackson was full on Friday, but he just ran with the scout team. He was declared out. The Ravens are now -1.5. I like them because good teams tend to play well with their backup quarterback, and unlike what we saw prior to the bye, Baltimore is healthy otherwise. However, I won’t be betting this game because I’m also not a fan of backing reserve quarterbacks versus top-10 defenses. Chicago’s defense is ninth in EPA.

PLAYER PROPS: I would have loved Mark Andrews if Lamar Jackson were playing. I still think he can score with Tyler Huntley, and his odds are more favorable anyway. The best odds are +340 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve had several people ask me why the Ravens are favored. The sharps are laughing at this. They’ve bet the Ravens over the past 24 hours. If you want to follow, the best line is -2.5 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: TBA.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.5 (Jackson) or Bears -4.5 (no Jackson).

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -6.5 (Jackson) or Bears -3.5 (no Jackson).

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

The public is confused about why the Ravens are favored.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 72% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 58 degrees. Lght wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I was wondering if Tua Tagovailoa would be benched for last week’s atrocious performance. He threw three interceptions against the Browns, prompting Mike McDaniel to remove him from the game. Tagovailoa, however, will start this contest because McDaniel doesn’t really have anyone else to turn to in order to save his job. Frankly, I don’t even know why McDaniel was even allowed on the plane after the loss to Cleveland.

Tagovailoa stinks right now, but it’s not all his fault. Tyreek Hill is sidelined, and Darren Waller got hurt versus the Browns. All Tagovailoa has at his disposal right now are De’Von Achane and pyramid scheme Jaylen Waddle. And the lack of weapons isn’t even the biggest problem, given how poor Miami’s offensive line is.

The Dolphins were an obvious fade because they wouldn’t be able to block Myles Garrett and company. The same applies in this game because the Falcons have improved their pass rush this year. They have 104 pressures through six games, so they should be able to put some heat on Tagovailoa and limit Miami’s entire offense.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Another reason why the Dolphins were such an obvious fade last week was because they’ve had the league’s worst run defense since Week 5 after surrendering 206 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle and 124 rushing yards to Kimani Vidal, and they were tasked with stopping Quinshon Judkins, who is far more talented than those two runners.

Well, the matchup is only getting worse for the Dolphins because they now have to contain Bijan Robinson. Arguably the best runner in the NFL, Robinson will rip through Miami’s defense and potentially threaten the single-game rushing record.

Robinson’s great running will make things very easy for Michael Penix Jr., who already had a favorable matchup in the first place. Miami’s secondary is a disaster, so Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts shouldn’t have any problems getting open.

RECAP: I was wary about backing the Falcons last week because they were coming off a national TV victory. They laid an egg in a similar situation at Carolina. While there was more effort versus the 49ers than there was against the Panthers, it was still rather lackluster.

The Falcons rebounded off the Carolina debacle, and they should be able to have similar success in this game. The Dolphins are a joke. They have a terrible roster with a poor offensive line and an abysmal defense. Their coach is a lame duck, while their quarterback threw his teammates under the bus. If the Falcons establish any sort of lead, there could be a quit factor.

With that in mind, this spread isn’t high enough. I can’t believe it’s only -7. It should be -10 at the very least. It’s not usual that we get great line value with the superior team coming off a loss, so this will be one of the top plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line shifted up from -7 to -7.5. That’s closer to what I projected the spread to be. The line may have moved because Darren Waller was placed on injured reserve, so Tua Tagovailoa will have one fewer weapon at his disposal.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s disappointing that the Falcons won’t have their top-rated defensive player, Divine Deablo, for this game. However, the Falcons should still be able to dominate the hapless Dolphins, even if Michael Penix Jr. is sidelined. Penix is questionable after being limited all week, but Kirk Cousins is obviously a viable replacement. It’s not usual for a team’s backup quarterback to be better than the opposing quarterback, but that’s the case in this game.

UPDATE: Michael Penix Jr. has been ruled out. I still love the Falcons with Kirk Cousins starting. In fact, I think Cousins, now healthy because he’s another year removed from his torn Achilles, may be an upgrade over Penix.

PLAYER PROPS: Kyle Pitts seems like a good bet to score. He has a good matchup and could see more targets if Drake London is out/hurt. The best odds are +185 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Dolphins over the past 24 hours. It’s likely someone knew that Drake London wouldn’t be available. London is out, but I still love the Falcons. The best line is -6.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

I’m also going to bet the -20.5 alt line. The best place for that is FanDuel, which lists it at +460. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.

The Falcons are coming off a loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -6.

Computer Model: Falcons -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Slight lean on the Falcons early, and much more later.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 74% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’m sure when fantasy football players were diagnosing Josh Allen’s matchups heading into 2025, they deemed that this would be a very easy one. Carolina, after all, had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. How could Allen and his teammates not dominate the Panthers?

Somehow, Carolina is 10th in defensive EPA since Week 2. The Panthers are even first against the run! This is shocking, but true, so don’t expect James Cook to have the sort of performance he enjoyed in the first couple of weeks of the season.

Allen’s outlook, however, is a different story. While the Panthers’ defensive rankings look great, it must be noted that they’ve played some sketchy quarterbacks. Those include Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Kyler Murray. They also took on Drake Maye and Dak Prescott, but the Patriots and Cowboys scored 42 and 27 points, respectively, in those contests. Maye was particularly great, going 14-of-17 for 203 yards and three total touchdowns. This gives me confidence that Allen will have a big game.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Anyone who backs the Bills in this game should be more concerned with the defense than the offense. This is obvious, but must be said because Buffalo’s defensive rankings are poor. They’re 21st in overall defensive EPA, but even worse against the run (27th).

There’s some hope for the Bills, even though their struggling run defense doesn’t match up well versus the upstart Rico Dowdle. Buffalo has been so abysmal against ground attacks because of Matt Milano’s absence. Milano has had the bye week to recover, so perhaps he’ll be close to 100 percent for this game. If so, the Bills should be able to hold up decently against the run. If not, Dowdle could have another strong performance.

Buffalo’s ability to clamp down on Dowdle will be instrumental in its chances of covering the spread. The one thing the Bills do well defensively is rush the passer. So, if Andy Dalton, who will be starting for the injured Bryce Young, will be confronted with plenty of long-yardage situations, Buffalo could sack him repeatedly and perhaps force some turnovers.

RECAP: I don’t find either side particularly appealing. If the Bills won prior to their bye, I’d perhaps consider the Panthers if I learned that Milano would be sidelined once again, or perhaps limited in what he could do on the field. However, Buffalo lost two consecutive games prior to the bye, so the team might be focused against the Panthers.

I bring up focus because the Bills have the Chiefs on the slate next week. This could be a potential look-ahead situation, but I’m not as confident in that because of the two losses prior to the bye. Still, I don’t know if Buffalo will take the Panthers completely seriously. This is a non-conference opponent that isn’t widely respected, so there’s a chance the Bills will be a bit flat. And even if they’re not, who’s to say Milano will be healthy enough to improve the ailing run defense?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kevin made a great point on our live stream. This is the second time the Panthers will be going up in class this season. The other occasion was a blowout loss versus the Panthers. The Bills might be worth a small bet if Matt Milano can return to action. He was limited on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills are in rough shape. DaQuan Jones is out. Matt Milano is questionable, but didn’t practice fully all week. The same goes for Terrel Bernard. The same also goes for Dalton Kincaid. Two safeties are out as well, though that’s not a strength of the team. I have no desire to lay seven on the road with a team with as many injuries as Buffalo.

UPDATE: Andy Dalton will start for the injured Bryce Young. This doesn’t change my pick, though I believe Dalton will be an upgrade over Young.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Matt Milano is out, so Buffalo’s run defense will continue to struggle. This is still a coin-flip pick for me. The sharps agree because they haven’t backed either side. The best line is Buffalo -7 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Bills are coming off two straight losses, but they battle the Chiefs next week.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.

Computer Model: Bills -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The public is still on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 79% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Josh Allen is 13-9 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Bills -7.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had a pathetic performance a couple of Thursday nights ago, to say the least. They could barely move the ball against a bottom-10 defense. Jalen Hurts looked like he was playing in slow motion, as he inexplicably ran just one time in the second half. Philadelphia mailed in that game entirely.

Hurts responded brilliantly against the Vikings. He had one of the best passing performances of his career, routinely connecting with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for big gains. This was shocking, to say the least, given that the Eagles couldn’t run the ball at all versus Minnesota’s poor ground defense. Saquon Barkley had a very appealing matchup heading into that game, yet he couldn’t muster anything on the ground.

This wasn’t anything new, of course, as Philadelphia has had issues run blocking all year. Barkley would love to stick it to his old team in this matchup, especially after failing to even reach 60 rushing yards in the Week 6 matchup. However, despite the Giants’ struggles against the run, it doesn’t seem likely that Barkley will be able to overcome his team’s poor blocking.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While Barkley failed to run on the Giants, New York had two players who matched or exceeded Barkley’s rushing total. The obvious one was Cam Skattebo, who has exceeded everyone’s expectations after being a fourth-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Skattebo pummeled through Philadelphia’s defense for 98 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

It’s fair to expect the Eagles to play better against Skattebo this time. They rank sixth against the run, after all. They likely struggled against Skattebo in the prior matchup due to a lack of focus, so they’ll have a better chance of limiting him in the rematch.

Then again, the Eagles also have to worry about the other player to match or exceed Barkley’s rushing yardage, which would be Jaxson Dart. The rookie quarterback has been tremendous since taking over for the anemic Russell Wilson. Dart even thrived at Mile High in one of the toughest matchups he’ll see all year. The Eagles have a strong defense, but Dart’s excellent play means that the Giants will have a decent chance of moving the chains throughout this contest.

RECAP: My contrarian handicapping brain wants to pick the Eagles. At some point, this Dart nonsense has to end, right? There’s no way he can continue to play this well, given that he has no viable No. 1 receiving threat, right?

I don’t know. Dart’s performances give me Tim Tebow vibes from 2011. I’m not saying Dart is going to be a one-hit wonder like Tebow, but the energy he brings to the team is infectious, and everyone on the Giants believe that they can win any game. This is what Tebow did for the Broncos in 2011 until he ran into Bill Belichick in the playoffs.

I backed off the Giants last week, but won’t do it again. I like them to cover the seven and potentially win this game. Besides, who are the Eagles to be laying seven points when they haven’t won a single game this year by more than seven points? They have no running game, so even if they go ahead by double digits, the back door will be wide open for the Giants, just like it was for the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Vikings versus Philadelphia in those fourth quarters.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A.J. Brown and Brian Burns missed Wednesday’s practice for their respective teams. We’ll be monitoring these situations, of course.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brian Burns may miss this game, but the key injuries are on the other side. The Eagles won’t have A.J. Brown, Adoree Jackson, and Cam Jurgens. Brown’s absence is big because the Eagles have just one viable receiver. The Jurgens injury is huge as well because he’s Philadelphia’s top-rated interior blocker. The Eagles already had issues blocking in the interior, so now they’ll be worse in that regard.

PLAYER PROPS: A.J. Brown is out, so Dallas Goedert was already going to be more of a factor. The best odds for him are +185 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have jumped on the Giants at +7.5. Most of the +7.5s are gone, but you can get +7.5 -115 at FanDuel. Speaking of FanDuel, they have a 30-percent boost today, up to $50, so I’ll incorporate that into the unit count. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 53% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 29 the last 36 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 57 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye has been far better than even the most bullish fans expected he would be in his second year. He reached plateaus that only Patrick Mahomes, Dan Marino, and Dak Prescott achieved as young quarterbacks, and he even broke Tom Brady’s single-game completion record last week.

I love Maye – he was my top fantasy quarterback value, and I drafted him more than any other quarterback in best ball – but it must be pointed out that he’s played nothing but struggling defenses thus far. He’s gone against the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Panthers, Bills, Saints, and Titans. Those teams are ranked 25th, 29th, 15th*, 10th*, 21st, 24th, and 30th, respectively, in defensive EPA. I starred the Steelers and Panthers because both teams were missing key defensive personnel in those matchups. In Carolina’s case, both of their edge rushers were sidelined.

This is Maye’s first difficult matchup of the year. It wouldn’t surprise me if he still plays well, but things won’t be so easy. Maye won’t get nearly as much help from his running game as he did versus the Titans last week, and he’ll see more pressure than usual.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns were a very easy pick last week for a variety of reasons. One was the mismatch between Quinshon Judkins and a Miami defense that couldn’t stop Rico Dowdle or Kimani Vidal. Judkins responded with three touchdowns, and his great running ability meant that Dillon Gabriel didn’t need to do anything.

The Patriots will force Gabriel to beat them. They’re fifth against the run, so they’ll do a much better job of limiting Judkins, much like the Steelers did two weeks ago.

Gabriel will be asked to do much more this week, and it won’t end well. He has no arm strength, so all he can do is dink and dunk. Mike Vrabel will also be able to orchestrate a great game plan to force him into a mistake or two.

RECAP: I’ve been betting the Patriots almost every game this year. I won’t be doing that this week. This spread is way too high. The Patriots have covered high lines like this, but they did so against Group F teams. The Browns have way too strong of a defense and running game to be in Group F. They’re in Group D, which means they’re bad, but not horrible.

I made this spread New England -4.5, so we’re getting nice value with the Browns. It’s only 2.5 points, but we’re getting two key numbers in six and seven. And if you don’t agree that this line should be below a touchdown, remember that Cleveland has battled the likes of the Ravens, Lions, Packers, and Joe Burrow-led Bengals this year, and they composed themselves respectably against all of them. The Detroit game turned into a blowout, but only because of some fluky turnovers from Joe Flacco.

I don’t know if I can bring myself to bet this game because I really don’t trust Gabriel against a strong defense, but I will not be betting on the Patriots either.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No update here. I’m still leaning toward the Browns, but don’t plan on betting them.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have a clean injury report. I have nothing new to add. Still zero units on the Browns.

PLAYER PROPS: The final tight end we’re betting on in the early slate is Hunter Henry. The best odds for him are +185 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still torn on this game, and the sharps are as well. They haven’t backed a side. The best line if you like the Browns is +7 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -7.

Computer Model: Patriots -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Decent lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 71% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Kevin Stefanski is 15-24 ATS after a win.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 51 degrees. Light wind.