2025 NFL Picks – Week 8: Redskins at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Washington Foreskins. Guys, something I’ve always wondered is why does Kansas City exist in the state of Missouri? You’d think it would be in Kansas. I learned about these states last week in Mother’s social studies homeschool class. I hate to brag, but there was a pop quiz, and I aced it!

Emmitt: Thanks, Ace. I was very disappointment when I was in the University States of Florida Colleges, and the teacher once say we has a pop quiz. I was already hungry, so I was glad that the teacher say we gonna eat pop corned. But soon I founded out that pop quiz do not mean a quiz that comed with pop corned. This disappointedmented me more than when I learn that Santa Clus were not real. I founded this out when I turn 18 and my mama telled me this when I ask if I could sit on Santa lap at the mall like I did a year ago.

Reilly: Emmitt, I can’t believe you thought Santa was real up until 18. Mother told me about Santa when I was 16, but I still wanted to sit on Santa’s lap at the mall because there was a chance he was real dad. But now I have New Daddy, so I don’t seek out Santas at the mall. Thank you so much, New Daddy, you mean everything to me!

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Tollefson: Reilly, if I may, you sound pathetic right now. Sitting on Santa’s lap is for loser kids. Now, stealing sexy Santa’s helpers and trapping them in your cellar until you force them to cook and clean naked for you is the way to go. I’m grateful for Santa and all of his sex slaves, I mean helpers!

Reilly: Tolly, when I visit Santa, I’m too focused on him instead of the helpers. If I’m not focused, and I forget to tell him what I really want for Christmas, how am I going to get what I really want, which is obviously more Nick Foles bobblehead dolls? Clarissa Thomas, can you tell everyone that it’s normal to sit on old men’s laps because you probably do that all the time?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Santa. I have some breaking news for you. Patrick Mahomes has been suspended 2-and-a-half quarters of this game because he sat on the laps of Xavier Worthy and Andy Reid while eating pepperoni pizza. Back to you, Santa.

Reilly: That may not seem like it could possibly be true, but Clarissa Thompkins is the most accurate reporter in the business and would never make anything up. Mina Klein, you sound like you want to say something.

Mina Kimes: I know this is a football show, and I would normally declare how I think Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, but I need to say something. How offensive is it that Santa is a cis white man? How do we know that Santa isn’t a woman, specifically an Asian woman who happens to be a sharp NFL analyst? An Asian woman who can be the only one to tell you that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback? Why can’t people sit on my lap, huh? Is my lap that uninviting? Is it because everyone’s jealous of my amazing NFL analysis?

Reilly: I hear you, Mino, I wish guys would sit on my lap, too. And by guys, I mean Nick Foles, Jalen Hurts, and Saquon Barkley.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! FIRST OF ALL, IT’S MINA KIMES! MINA WITH AN A. NOT MINO. RESPECT THE BEST ANALYST IN THE NFL. ARE YOU DISRESPECTING HER BECAUSE SHE’S AN ASIAN NFL ANALYST? AND SECOND, WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE PEDDLING HOMOPHOBIA? DON’T BELITTLE MEN SITTING ON OTHER MEN’S LAPS! IT’S A PERFECTLY NORMAL THING THAT MEN SIT ON EACH OTHER’S LAPS, SO HOW DARE YOU TRIVIALIZE IT!?

Reilly: Whoa, I’m not trivializing anything! The only trivializing I do is when I play Trivial Pursuit with Mother. She always wins the adult version, so we have to play the kid version for me to have a chance, but I still lose.

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about board games, Kevin. We can talk about other board games, Kevin, such as Monopoly, Kevin. Why don’t we get to Sorry, Kevin? What about Scrabble, Kevin? Let’s get to Clue, Kevin. Kevin doesn’t have a clue, Kevin. We can transition to Yahtzee, Kevin. How about Candy Land, Kevin? Don’t forget about Chutes and Ladders, Kevin. Next is Mystery Date, Kevin, which is just Kevin’s Mother, Kevin. Then there’s the Game of Life, Kevin, which you’ve failed at, Kevin. And of course, there’s Kevin Reilly Is a Loser Game, Kevin.

Reilly: Yeah, right! As if that game exists! Wait, does it? If so, that can’t possibly be about me. Have you seen my Nick Foles bobblehead collection!? We’ll be back right after this!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: We bet Jayden Daniels’ rushing yards live on Sunday, so of course he suffered an injury. Of course. Daniels hurt his hamstring, so he could be out once again. If so, it’ll be Marcus Mariota, who’s had some mixed performances. He thrived against the Raiders in Week 3, but then was blown out in Atlanta the following Sunday.

Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top defenses. Atlanta can be described as such, but the Chiefs cannot. Kansas City’s not bad defensively, but ranks only 18th in EPA. Their biggest problem is stopping the run. They rank 24th versus the rush, so Jacory Croskey-Merritt could have a solid game if given the opportunity. The problem there is that the Redskins might be far behind in this game, which would force Mariota to pass more than the coaching staff would want.

Mariota will have some issues dealing with the pass rush. The Chiefs have a strong defensive line that has accumulated 122 pressures through seven games. We saw Mariota throw a pick-six against Dallas’ abysmal defense when he was pressured, so perhaps he’ll make the same mistake in this game.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes, conversely, didn’t make any mistakes last week. Everything was easy for him. He moved up and down the field against the Raiders with ease, thanks to the return of Rashee Rice.

The Raiders have an atrocious defense that was made worse by Maxx Crosby’s injury, but it’s not like the Redskins are much better. Washington is ranked 27th in defensive EPA, thanks to incredibly slow linebackers and a suspect run defense that allowed Javonte Williams to look like Emmitt Smith last week. The Redskins were, in fact, debacled.

Mahomes shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains consistently in this game. With his full complement of weapons, Mahomes can expose all the best matchups. He’ll also scramble when needed, and I wouldn’t count on Washington’s slow linebackers to do anything about it.

RECAP: We don’t know Daniels’ status, so it’s difficult to make a prediction on this game right now. If it’s Daniels, 10.5 is a ton of points for a talented quarterback. Given that the Chiefs can’t run the ball, the back door will be wide open for him. I would definitely be on Washington at +10.5 in this scenario, but then again, the line could drop.

If Mariota gets the nod, that makes things more difficult. The Chiefs have to take on the Bills next week, so they could look past the Redskins, given that they’ll believe that beating Mariota isn’t a tough task. I like backing reserve quarterbacks against non-elite defenses, but I don’t think I’d bet the Redskins because I wouldn’t trust the back-door possibility as much.

I’ll have a definitive pick on this game once we learn Daniels’ status. Check back later for updates!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jayden Daniels has been ruled out, moving this line to -12.5. After thinking about it, I’m going to side with the Chiefs. I don’t trust Marcus Mariota against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Chiefs just won in a blowout. After this game, they take on the Bills.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Decent lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 69% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Redskins are 16-9 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Patrick Mahomes is 104-28 SU, 70-60 ATS (56-46 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -5.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .