2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Bears at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams was given up for dead after the Lions obliterated the Bears in Week 2, 52-21. However, Chicago was coming off a short work week and didn’t have a great game plan prepared for Detroit. That changed ahead of Week 3, as Williams had the best performance of his career.

It helped that the Bears battled a truly horrific Dallas defense that allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 450 yards a couple of weeks ago. The Raiders are obviously better defensively than the Cowboys – everyone is – but they have some major defensive liabilities of their own. They just allowed Marcus Mariota to score 41 points against them.

The Raiders have some great pass rushers, so it’s odd that they’re so poor defensively. However, they’re 26th in defensive EPA because of poor linebacker and secondary play. Their run defense is poor, while their inability to stop the pass is even worse. The Bears should have plenty of success in this game, as their improved offensive line will be able to shield Williams rather well.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As bad as the Raiders defense has been, the offense has been just as poor the past couple of weeks. They scored just nine points against the Chargers and weren’t much better before garbage time versus the Redskins.

I would expect the Bears to bounce back on this side of the ball this week because they have a much softer opponent. While the Chargers and Redskins are in the top half of the NFL in defensive EPA, Chicago is ranked 21st in that regard despite two of their games being against J.J. McCarthy and a CeeDee Lamb-less Dallas offense.

The Bears have only 38 pressures in three games, so that has to be music to Geno Smith’s ears. Las Vegas’ offensive line is a mess, but it won’t have much of an issue against the Bears. And Chicago’s 27th-ranked run defense could finally allow Ashton Jeanty to have a big performance.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Las Vegas -2.5, and if we had a pre-advance spread, dated just after Week 1, we may have seen the Raiders be three-point favorites. Yet, they’re close to pick ’em now.

The only thing that has changed recently was the Bears dominating an injury-ravaged Dallas team, and the Raiders getting manhandled in two contests. However, the Raiders took on two top-10 teams in the Chargers and Redskins. They were fighting above their weight class and were beaten up as a result. Now, they’ll be battling a team similar to them, so they’ll have a higher chance of success.

I’m going to be on the Raiders. We’re getting some decent line value, and we’re also able to fade a blowout win by going against a publicly backed underdog, which is always nice.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still think this is a nice buy-low spot for the Raiders and a sell-high spot for the Bears.

PLAYER PROPS: Ashton Jeanty has been a huge disappointment, but only because his offensive line has been so bad. But as brutal as his blocking has been, Chicago’s run defense has been worse. The Bears have allowed 91 rushing yards to the combo of Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones; 151 rushing yards in total to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery; and 76 rushing yards to Javonte Williams on only 10 carries. Jeanty should be able to exceed his rushing total. The best number is over 66.5 rushing yards -111 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears still have cornerback issues with Jaylon Johnson on IR and Kyler Gordon barely practicing this week. The Raiders, who are mostly healthy, should bounce back off two ugly losses.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some sharp action is coming in on the Raiders on Sunday morning, which isn’t too much of a surprise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears will have D’Andre Swift available, but they’ll be missing Kyler Gordon, Grady Jarrett, Darnell Wright, and T.J. Edwards in addition to Jaylon Johnson, who is on injured reserve. The sharps continue to bet the Raiders. I’m going to put a unit on Las Vegas. The best line is -1.5 -110 at BetMGM and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -2.5.

Computer Model: Bears -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Bears are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 61% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Raiders are 20-35 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.