2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Chargers at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Video of the Week: What would it be like if a whack job wakes up after being in a coma for five years?

One of the first questions I had was, why was she wearing a watch despite being in a coma for five years?

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert continues to dominate. Herbert was terrific in Brazil against the Chiefs, aggressively attacking the secondary in the fourth quarter. Herbert hasn’t slowed down en route to a 3-0 start.

There’s no reason to think that Herbert won’t be able to stay hot. The Giants have some talented pass rushers, but really nothing else on defense. They allowed Dak Prescott to throw all over them in Week 2 and then revived Patrick Mahomes’ season on Sunday night. There are some major issues at cornerback, which is something Herbert will be able to easily exploit with the injection of talent he’s had at receiver this year.

Making matters worse for the Giants, they have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Only the Bills have a worse EPA against the rush through three weeks, so Omarion Hampton could have his best game yet.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I can’t say that it’s surprising that Herbert has performed on an MVP level this year. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, after all. What is shocking is that the Chargers defense has been so exceptional through three weeks. Khalil Mack has missed the previous game-and-a-half, and yet the Chargers are ninth in defensive EPA despite battling the Chiefs and Broncos in two games.

The Giants will be a very simple matchup by comparison. The Chargers generate plenty of pressure on the quarterback, and the Giants can’t block. Andrew Thomas’ return last week was supposed to help, but he couldn’t even last the entire game. Rusell Wilson has been benched in favor of Jaxson Dart, so it’s not ideal that the rookie quarterback is placed in a tough spot in such a difficult matchup. Perhaps waiting until Week 5 versus the Saints would have been better.

Save for Malik Nabers’ Week 2 performance, the lone bright spot for the Giants’ long-term plans has been Cam Skattebo. He’s run very well in place of the injured Tyrone Tracy, but he’ll face a bit of a challenge against the Chargers, who have stopped the run well thus far.

RECAP: I will be betting the Chargers heavily this week. They’re the far superior team in this matchup. One could claim that they’re a top-five team in the NFL, while the Giants are quite possibly a bottom-five team. This spread should be close to double digits, but it’s not.

The one argument that could be made for the Giants is that the Chargers could be a bit deflated coming off three divisional games. However, they’re extremely well coached, and they’re a relatively young team that will want to continue its winning streak. I wonder if the quarterback change will catch their attention. Plus, this is an early game on the East Coast, and we know that the top coaches like Jim Harbaugh and Sean McVay treat these games with extra attention because they know how challenging the body clock change is for players.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I didn’t include in my write-up is that Jim Harbaugh was 4-0 against rookie quarterbacks last year. Harbaugh versus a rookie quarterback seems like an automtic wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers have a bit of a concern on the offensive line with Bradley Bozeman listed as questionable after being DNP-limited-limited. Mekhi Becton is already out, but he’s been terrible this year. I mentioned him because if Bozeman’s out, the Chargers will be down three offensive linemen. We’ll have to check Bozeman’s status 90 minutes prior to kickoff. Check back on Sunday morning for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers will have Bradley Bozeman available, which is a big deal. Despite this, the sharps have come in on the Giants. The best line is -5.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

Also, DraftKings has a 33-percent boost for an anytime touchdown prop. We’re going with Omarion Hampton at +121 instead of +100. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Chargers are coming off three divisional wins, but this is an early game on the East Coast.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Sharp money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Russell Wilson is 35-18 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 37-22 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.