2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Browns at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

DETROIT OFFENSE: No Ben Johnson, no Frank Ragnow, no Kevin Zeitler, no problem. The Lions are just as explosive as ever offensively, as we’ve seen the past two weeks. They’ve scored 52 and 38 in the past two games. They’re clearly going 15-2 again, and perhaps even winning the #Supergame.

We’ll see if this offensive explosion is real or not in this game. The Bears have a horrific defense, and so do the Ravens without Justin Madubuike, Kyle Van Noy and Jaire Alexander. The Browns, conversely, have dismantled every opposing offense they’ve faced this year. The Joe Burrow-led Bengals could barely score on them, while the Packers mustered only 10 points. Cleveland’s stout run defense will bottle up Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

Jared Goff will have to operate without the assistance of his usually dynamic ground attack. Goff can be great when everything’s going well, but he can break down and get into trouble in tough situations, and this will qualify as such with the Browns’ great pass rush bearing down on him.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns could be 2-1 right now if they had Quinshon Judkins available in Week 1. They couldn’t move the ball on the ground against the Bengals, forcing Joe Flacco to throw often. Flacco was tabbed with two interceptions because of drops by Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman. Judkins would have been able to keep the chains moving, potentially preventing this from happening.

Judkins faces a much tougher matchup this week, given that Detroit’s stout run defense just clamped down on Derrick Henry. However, his presence will at least force the Lions to respect the run.

Given that the Lions will have to focus at least a bit on Judkins, Flacco will have an easier time against the Lions than he would otherwise. I have concerns about Cleveland’s offensive line against Detroit’s talented pass rush if Jack Conklin is sidelined again, but if the Browns get Conklin back from injury, they’ll be able to block enough for Flacco to exploit some of the weaknesses in Detroit’s secondary.

RECAP: The demise of the Lions has been greatly exaggerated, apparently. They were great on Monday night, albeit against a Baltimore team that was missing nearly half of its defense. Still, the way they dismantled Lamar Jackson was very impressive.

Detroit’s win over the Ravens could be a good opportunity to fade them on an inflated line. Everyone is certainly buying the Lions Super Bowl hype, though I can’t say I’m quite there yet. I think the Detroit players will be buying the hype as well, but they’ll be matched up against a Cleveland team that has been very feisty through three weeks. The Browns have outgained their opposition by about 300 yards and could very easily be 2-1 right now. They play great defense and have some talented skill players, while their quarterback isn’t inept like the players at the position they had last year.

I’m not enthused to go against the Lions buzzsaw that will certainly go 17-0 this year because they’re literally the best in the NFL right now, but I like the Browns to cover the spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy, our Wednesday guest on the After Dark Show, made a compelling case for Detroit:

PLAYER PROPS: The Browns don’t allow anything on the ground. Derrick Henry gained just 23 yards against them in Week 2. Josh Jacobs managed just 30. David Montgomery is a great fade off his brilliant Monday night performance. The best number is under 49.5 -140 at BetMGM. The vig is high, but many of the other yardage numbers are 45.5 and 46.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Taylor Decker could be out after missing practice all week. If he’s sidelined, the Lions won’t have three offensive linemen from last week, which might be too much against Cleveland’s dominant front line. I still would side with Cleveland.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Bad offensive line luck for the Browns: They won’t have Jack Conklin, while the Lions will have Taylor Decker even though Decker didn’t practice all week. Believe it or not, there’s sharp money coming in on Detroit. The best line is -10 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Lions are coming off a big win against the Ravens on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -9.5.

Computer Model: Lions -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 53% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Opening Line: Lions -9.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.