2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Panthers at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers won 30-0 last week, so they must have had some sort of offensive explosion, right? That’s not what the numbers say. The Panthers generated only 224 yards of offense and a meager 4.1 yards per play. That’s pitiful, especially against a team that wasn’t trying very hard.

I wouldn’t expect much from Carolina’s offense in this game either. The Patriots produce a fair amount of heat on the quarterback – 46 pressures through three games – so that should be enough to get to Bryce Young, given that there are multiple injuries on the Carolina front. Remember that Young still can’t see over the line of scrimmage, which could be a problem against Mike Vrabel’s schemes.

I don’t think the Panthers will be able to run all that well either. The Patriots rank 12th against the run despite battling De’Von Achane and Ashton Jeanty in two of their three games. They’ll be able to limit Chuba Hubbard.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots lost last week, while the Panthers won. New England scored just 14 points compared to Carolina’s 30. And yet, the Patriots were far better offensively than their counterpart. They gained 369 net yards and averaged 5.2 yards per play, and none of that came in garbage time.

The Patriots lost to the Steelers because they committed five turnovers, three of which were fumbles. Fumbles can be fluky plays, and we may not see much of the perpetrators this week, as Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson seemed to be benched in favor of the more-talented TreVeyon Henderson. The rookie should have a great game against the woeful Carolina run defense.

The Panthers aren’t much better against the pass because they have just 36 pressures through three games. Drake Maye will have all the time he’ll need to dissect Carolina’s secondary.

RECAP: I hate that this spread is so high. It’s actually not that high, but I was hoping that the line would be New England -3 or so after the Panthers won 30-0 and the Patriots lost to the Steelers.

Alas, it is not. The Patriots are favored by nearly a touchdown, which will likely get the public to back the Panthers. I would imagine that the sharps will come in on the Patriots because Carolina, despite its 30-0 victory, is horrible. The Panthers were blown out at Jacksonville and trailed 27-3 to the Cardinals before Arizona fell asleep at the wheel. The Falcons were a complete no-show, putting forth no effort last week, but the Patriots certainly will. They’re a young, underrated team hungry for a win. They’re much better than the dreadful Panthers.

I love fading the worst teams in the NFL, and I especially love going against them when they’re coming off a victory. I plan on betting the Patriots for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still like the Patriots, but wish we were getting a better number. But the Patriots and Jaguars are similar teams, and we saw what happened when Carolina visited Jacksonville.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers are a mess, injury-wise. They were already down two starting offensive linemen. Now, they’re going to be missing two edge rushers in Patrick Jones and D.J. Wonnum. Not having Wonnum is a big deal because he leads the team in quarterback pressures. And if that’s not bad enough Tetairoa McMillan and Chuba Hubbard are questionable with calf injuries. I will increase my unit count if McMillan is sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a sharp-public dichotomy, where the public is on the Panthers and the sharps are on the Patriots. The best line is -5.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -5.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Panthers getting public money.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 73% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 75 degrees. Light wind.