2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Eagles at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 2-10 heading into Week 4.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots +1.5

Bills -8.5

Ravens -3.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, and 0-3 in Week 3. A rough start, to say the least.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Seahawks +1.5

Redskins -2.5

Bears +1

Chargers -6.5

The public is in rough shape. Can they rebound!?

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It was crucial for Philadelphia to reestablish its passing attack ahead of this matchup. That’s because the Buccaneers have the heaviest pass-funnel defense in the NFL. They swallow up running backs in the backfield routinely, thanks to Vita Vea; they haven’t allowed a 50-yard rusher since early December 2024.

The Eagles love to run their offense through Saquon Barkley, and why wouldn’t they? Barkley is one of the top players in the NFL and the reigning Offensive Player of the Year. Barkley, however, hasn’t seen the same running room that was available to him last year. He’ll find even less of it versus the Vea-led Tampa Bay front.

Jalen Hurts, however, proved that he can carry an offense in the incredible comeback from down 26-7 versus the Rams. It definitely helps that A.J. Brown is healthy. Brown couldn’t separate at all in the opener and was only marginally better in Week 2, but he exploded versus the Rams and projects extremely well against the Buccaneers.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The fact that the Buccaneers were able to beat the Jets was impressive. Not that beating the Jets itself is some great feat, but the Buccaneers did so without the services of three offensive linemen. And if that wasn’t enough, Mike Evans left with a hamstring injury in the second half.

This injury situation may have been OK against the Jets, but it’s not going to fly versus the Eagles. Philadelphia’s defensive line is just way too good. The Eagles will dominate in the trenches, clamping down on the run and putting pressure on Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield won’t be the same without Evans. Emeka Egbuka has been great, but he’s just a rookie, and more than one talented receiver is needed to solve Philadelphia’s talented secondary. Chris Godwin may play, but he’s certainly not ready to go and may suffer the same fate as Najee Harris, who also returned prematurely after barely practicing.

RECAP: The Buccaneers have beaten the Eagles in their prior two matchups, but this one is much different. In the other two battles, the Buccaneers were able to dominate an extremely shorthanded Philadelphia squad. The 2023 matchup saw Brown miss the game, while the Eagles underwent weird locker room turmoil throughout the second half of the year. Last season, the Eagles were missing Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson.

Now, the turntables have turned. The Eagles are mostly healthy, while the Buccaneers are missing numerous starters. Being down three offensive linemen and two receievers might as well be a death sentence against Philadelphia’s defense.

The Eagles are the right side in the lastest version of this rivalry. They’re better and healthier, and this line is too low. Also, it’s worth noting that the Buccaneers have the worst home-field advantage in the NFL; they’re inexplicably just 45-76 against the spread at home.

I wanted to bet the Eagles heavily at -2.5 or -3, but as of Tuesday morning, the line has jumped to -3.5. This isn’t ideal, but it’s also a sign of strength for the Eagles because the sportsbooks don’t care about any potential sharp money coming in on the Buccaneers at +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money drove this up through three. The Eagles seem like the right side.

PLAYER PROPS: I mentioned last week that the Buccaneers don’t allow 50-yard rushers. The last time they did so was early December. As long as Vita Vea’s healthy, the Buccaneers will clog running lanes, and it’s not like Barkley is doing all that much this year. The best number is under 81.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers are healthier than we thought. Maybe. Tristan Wirfs is due back, and Chris Godwin could make his return, too. It remains to be seen if Wirfs will be 100 percent, though it’s unlikely that Godwin will remain healthy. Also, Baker Mayfield is questionable with a biceps injury after being limited all week. I”m assuming Mayfield will play, but we’ve seen crazier things happen. I’m going to remove my unit count for now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin are both back. It’s also 110 degrees on the field. These are not good things for the Eagles. The sharps bet them at -2.5 and -3, but not at -3.5. The best line is -3.5 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -2.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Buccaneers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 70% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Road Team is 145-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 45-76 ATS at home in the previous 121 instances.

Buccaneers are 14-33 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Rain, 84 degrees. Light wind.