2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Vikings at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, especially when they began airing in the morning, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game that is aired 1 p.m. Eastern. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off, and send a message by purchasing this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings got back on track. All they needed to do was replace J.J. McCarthy with Carson Wentz. Problem solved!

OK, it was obviously much more than that. Upgrading McCarthy to Wentz helped, but the Vikings also blocked a lot better with Christian Darrisaw back from injury. He’ll be crucial in this matchup against T.J. Watt. When Wentz has time, he’ll be able to shred a horrible Pittsburgh secondary with his many talented weapons, which includes a returning Jordan Addison.

The Vikings should also be able to run well on the Steelers. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to stop the run at all this year. With the help of Darrisaw, the Vikings can blast open better running lanes for Jordan Mason, who looked good versus the Bengals.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Darrisaw wasn’t the only Pro Bowl-caliber talent to return from injury. Andrew Van Ginkel and Harrison Smith also reentered the lineup, providing the Minnesota defense with a much-needed spark. The Vikings, as a result, scored two defensive touchdowns against the Bengals.

The Steelers can’t block, which will be a problem against the Van Ginkel-led Minnesota front. The Vikings will put lots of pressure on Aaron Rodgers, forcing him into some errors, which he did against this very same Viking team while playing for the Jets in London at this time last year.

Minnesota was able to clamp down on the run last week, which is something that it failed to do in its Week 2 loss versus the Falcons. I don’t see Jaylen Warren getting much on the ground in this matchup.

RECAP: I like backing the superior team in Thursday and international games because the inferior squad doesn’t have enough preparation time to build a game plan to defeat the stronger opponent. Of course, the better team needs to be focused, or this is all moot. See Buffalo’s effort last Thursday as a primary example of the superior squad being unfocused.

I see no reason why the Vikings would be unfocused on an international stage against a team with a winning record. They’ll bring their “A” game, just like they did last year versus Rodgers.

And speaking of Rodgers, he has a poor track record in Europe, albeit on a small sample size. He lost a big favorite to the Giants a few years ago, and his team was blown out by Minnesota last season. I believe history will repeat itself.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Vikings are much better than the Steelers, yet they’re favored by less than a field goal. This line makes little sense, but weird stuff happens in these horrible international games.

PLAYER PROPS: FanDuel has a 30-percent anytime touchdown boost for this game. Let’s put it on the player most likely to score a touchdown, which would be Jordan Mason. We’re getting -130 and turning it into +100. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings won’t have Andrew Van Ginkel, which isn’t ideal. However, the Vikings will be getting Ryan Kelly and Jordan Addison back from their absences. What’s even more significant, as far as I’m concerned, is that Aaron Rodgers is already complaining about having to travel overseas again. Rodgers, who has struggled in Europe, was lamenting that the Steelers arrived to Ireland on Friday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a bit of sharp action on the Vikings, but not a lot. I’m going to drop this to one unit. The Van Ginkel injury concerns me, and I don’t like hearing that the Steelers are going to play hard for the Rooneys because this game is in Ireland. Plus, international games are dumb. The best number is -2.5 -112 at FanDuel. Half of the play will be aided by a 50-percent profit boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 57% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Tomlin is 63-36 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 135-100 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-24 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Steelers -1.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 59 degrees. Light wind.