2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Steelers at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Mike Tomlin has had a non-losing season in every year as Pittsbugh’s head coach, but 2025 could finally be the time that he doesn’t finish .500 or better. The Steelers have a bunch of things wrong with them, and we’ll begin offensively.

The Steelers can’t block. Their offensive line is awful. Zach Frazier is a solid center, but the tackle and guard play has been disastrous thus far. There’s not anything even really wrong with Aaron Rodgers, but he’s not getting any protection. DK Metcalf is bailing out the offense on occasion with some amazing catches, but it didn’t happen enough in the two-touchdown loss to Seattle.

The run blocking has been better than the pass protection, but I wouldn’t expect much from Jaylen Warren on the ground. The Patriots have handled the run extremely well through two weeks, limiting both Aston Jeanty and De’Von Achane to fewer than 40 rushing yards each.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Steelers also have big defensive issues, which is not common for a Tomlin-coached team. They’ve been gashed by both the Jets and Seahawks – two teams quarterbacked by Justin Fields and Sam Darnold. That’s not a good sign.

Drake Maye isn’t the most-seasoned quarterback, but he had immense upside and showed that potential in a great game versus the Dolphins. Granted, Miami has a putrid defense, but Darnold just sliced through the Steelers with ease, so Maye could do that as well. Cornerback play outside of Jalen Ramsey has been awful, while the performances from the linebackers have been worse. Josh McDaniels will figure out how to use his pieces against these defensive liabilities. Perhaps he’ll figure out how to get Tre’Veyon Henderson more involved.

Speaking of Henderson, he or Rhamondre Stevenson figure to have a dominant performance on the ground. The Steelers haven’t been able to stop the run at all, allowing Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker to look like the second coming of Barry Sanders and Walter Payton.

RECAP: It seems weird to me that the Steelers are favored in New England. Well, maybe it’s not that weird because this line is catered to public perception. People think that the Steelers are still a decent team despite what happened versus Seattle last week. Pittsburgh is such a public team, that this is only natural. Meanwhile, the Patriots are seen as a bad team despite their victory in Miami last week because they were awful in 2024 and don’t really have any flashy players. So, I guess it’s not weird at all.

That doesn’t mean the spread is correct, however. The Steelers have some major problems. They could easily be 0-2 right now despite going against the Jets and Seahawks through two weeks. New York went right through their defense, while Seattle won easily. The Seahawks prevailed 31-17 even though they made a million mistakes in the first half. Pittsburgh can’t stop anyone and struggles to block. That’s not a good combination.

The Patriots are an up-and-coming team and are arguably better than the Steelers. Even if they’re equal, they should be favored by a point-and-a-half, so we’re getting some value with New England. It’s not insane value, but the wrong side is favored.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t get why the Steelers are favored, but I’m not alone. There’s a ton of public money coming into the Patriots. If I were betting on New England, I’d be a bit worried about backing a public home dog.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Drake Maye last week, and we’ll do it again. The Steelers can’t stop anyone. They allowed Justin Fields to run for 48 yards. Maye can get to 22. The best number is over 21.5 rushing yards -135 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams might get some defenders back from injury. Christian Gonzalez is questionable after limited practices all week. Keion White practiced fully on Friday. Meanwhile, the Steelers saw Derrick Harmon have a full practice as well. Pittsburgh, however, still won’t have DeShon Elliott and now will be missing Alex Highsmith. I’m still leaning toward the Patriots.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Derrick Harmon is back for the Steelers, so maybe he’ll help the defense. I still would side with the Patriots, but I’m not betting this game. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +1 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

The public all over the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 83% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Aaron Rodgers is 134-100 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 43-28 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Steelers are 15-31 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Opening Line: Steelers -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 67 degrees. Light wind.