NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
2025 NFL Picks: 25-18-1 (-$760)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 21, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The thought dawned on me to bet Justin Herbert to win MVP. He’s been exceptional through two weeks, and if the Chargers have one of the best records in the NFL, he could claim the reward. Unfortunately, many others appear to have the same thought process because he’s +850 to win the award on FanDuel.

Herbert will have his greatest challenge yet, given how stellar Denver’s defense is. Herbert solved the Broncos last year, however. In two games, Herbert went 23-of-31 for 284 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and 21-of-34 for 237 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers scored 34 and 23 points in those games, respectively. And Herbert didn’t have Keenan Allen or an improved Quentin Johnston at his disposal either.

Omarion Hampton wasn’t around either, but the rookie had a very disappointing Week 2. He and Najee Harris had the same number of carries, perhaps because of Hampton’s lost fumble in the fourth quarter. I don’t trust the Chargers to run very well on Denver, so Herbert will have to do everything.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos won’t have much success on the ground either. The Chargers have locked down the opposing ground attack through two weeks, limiting Ashton Jeanty on Monday night and the Chiefs running back previously. J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey don’t figure to have much more luck.

With the Broncos unable to run, Bo Nix will have to do more than Sean Payton would like. Many gave Nix a positive outlook heading into the year, but he has been a disappointment. Nix is at least protected well, so the Chargers won’t be able to rattle him like they did to Geno Smith on Monday night, especially if Khalil Mack is sidelined.

The Chargers are getting great play out of their defensive backs, but Nix has more talent at receiver than he did in the two matchups last year. Troy Franklin has emerged as a viable No. 2 option, so the Chargers won’t be able to fully concentrate on Courtland Sutton.

RECAP: The Chargers have looked like the much better team through two weeks. They handled the Chiefs well and then bullied the Raiders. The Broncos, meanwhile, lost to the Colts and had a close call against the Titans. However, Payton’s teams are notoriously slow starters, and it’s Week 3 when they usually catch fire.

We could see the Broncos play their best game yet this year, which is troublesome if you want to back a team that is coming off a short work week. That said, I still like the Chargers here because I have them rated higher than the Broncos, but I don’t think this is a very good betting opportunity.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Khalil Mack will be out, but he hasn’t gone down for the year, or anything. I still like the Chargers here despite his absence. Jim Harbaugh values divisional matchups highly, so he’ll bring it in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers have some significant injuries. Everyone knows about Rashawn Slater and Khalil Mack, but if Daiyan Henley can’t play – he was DNP, limited, DNP with an illness – the Chargers will have some serious issues at linebacker. Henley is a talented player, so he’ll sorely be missed regardless. We’ll be watching for his status on Sunday afternoon.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Chargers have some injury issues we’ll be looking for when the inactives are released. Check back around 3:15 p.m. Eastern for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers had mixed news for their injuries. Daiyan Henley is active, while Cam Hart is out. Henley’s presence is huge because the Chargers would’ve had cluster injuries at linebacker without him. As it stands, I’m neutral on this game. The sharps, however, have taken the Broncos on Sunday afternoon. The best line is -2.5 -120 at DraftKings and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Lots of money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Chargers have won the last 2 meetings.

Sean Payton is 23-11 ATS in back-to-back road games.

Sean Payton is 26-16 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Jim Harbaugh is 6-1 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Many were down on Sam Darnold following Week 1, and rightfully so. Darnold stunk against the 49ers. However, he rebounded nicely against the Steelers, giving Seattle supporters some hope.

Darnold should continue to play well against New Orleans. The Saints have an awful pass rush – only 23 pressures through two games – so they won’t be able to take advantage of the liabilities the Seahawks have on their blocking unit. Darnold will capitalize with continued throws to Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Of course, the Seahawks will want to run the ball as much as possible. It’ll be tougher for them to do that because the Saints, while awful against the pass, can hold up well versus the run.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints will need to get something out of Alvin Kamara to give Spencer Rattler a chance. Kamara has looked good through two weeks, though he’ll inevitably decline as the season progresses due to age and durability issues.

Kamara, however, won’t get much on the ground. Christian McCaffrey couldn’t even tally 70 rushing yards on this stout Seattle front, so Kamara won’t produce very much in this game.

Rattler will be forced into long-yardage situations as a result. The Seahawks will be able to tee off on Rattler with their talented pass rushers. Rattler, making his first road start of the year, will likely commit some turnovers.

RECAP: I’ve heard the opinion that the Saints aren’t as bad as anticipated because they’ve hung around in their first two games, losing by seven to the Cardinals and five to the 49ers. This sentiment is flawed, however, because both of its opponents held double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. The Saints got to within single digits both times in garbage time when their opponents, both playing on the road, have fallen asleep.

This is not sustainable. The Saints could have easily been blown out in both games, and there’s a good chance that happens in this contest. The Saints will be playing on the road for the first time this year, and Seattle has a suffocating defense. Rattler is an awful quarterback, so he’s in a tougher spot than most quarterbacks in this situation. Good quarterbacks would be able to find a way to beat the Seahawks, but Rattler doesn’t have much of a chance.

I’m going to be betting the Seahawks. A line of -7.5 may seem too high, but I don’t think it’s high enough. This line should be -9.5 at the very least, and perhaps even -10.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here are my early Thursday Thoughts on this game because I forgot one thing: The Seahawks play on Thursday in Week 4 versus the Cardinals. Following a win across the country, it’s going to be difficult for Seattle to get up for this game.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks can’t defend tight ends. I mentioned this last week, but we couldn’t bet on the Steeler tight ends because there are a billion of them. There’s only one Saints tight end, and that would be Juwan Johnson, who has logged 76 and 49 receiving yards in his two games. He should be able to clear 37.5. The best number is over 37.5 receiving yards -118 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: A case can be made to bet the Saints. The Seahawks are going to be missing three members of their secondary, including two of their top three safeties, and their best cornerback. I can’t actually wager money on Spencer Rattler, but if you do, I wouldn’t blame you.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Jaxson Smith-Njigba had an illness scare, but will be playing today despite flu-like symptoms. Be careful if you’re on them in survivor.

FINAL THOUGHTS: New Orleans won’t have Taliese Fuaga today, but that doesn’t matter for the pros. The sharps bet the Saints at +7.5, but not at +7. The best line is -7 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

From the Thursday Thoughts: The Seahawks play on Thursday in Week 4 versus the Cardinals. Following a win across the country, it’s going to be difficult for Seattle to get up for this game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Decent lean on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Seahawks are 31-20 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 60-48 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 8-17 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 64 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Aside from J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams looks like the worst quarterback of the six in the first round of his draft class. It’s obviously way too early to deem him a bust, but it’s looking like things are trending that way.

Williams, however, will have a golden opportunity to prove his doubters wrong, at least temporarily, in this game. The Cowboys have a putrid defense that can’t get any pressure on the quarterback. They have just three sacks through two games and allowed Russell Wilson to look like John Elway. Think they miss Micah Parsons?

The Bears will be able to ram D’Andre Swift into Dallas’ front successfully. The Cowboys were already poor against the run heading into the year, and they haven’t been any better since the Parsons trade. Cam Skattebo looked great against them last week, so Swift figures to have an even better performance.

DALLAS OFFENSE: If you think the Cowboys have a weak pass rush, consider that the Bears have an even worse one. They also have three sacks through two games, and they’ve accumulated only 13 pressures thus far. The Panthers have a poor total in the lower 20s, so that 13 figure is pathetic.

The Cowboys should be able to protect Dak Prescott despite center Cooper Beebe being sidelined. Prescott will light up a secondary that is devoid of talent outside of Jaylon Johnson.

Like the Bears, Dallas will be able to pound the ball in this game. Javonte Williams isn’t very good, but he’s taken advantage of weak matchups thus far. He should continue to do so against Chicago’s weak defensive line.

RECAP: This is quite the overreaction. The Bears were favored by three over the Cowboys on the advance line. Thanks to the Week 2 results, the Bears are now one-point underdogs. “But how can you ignore the Week 2 results?” you may ask. Well, think about it this way: The Bears battled a much better team in the Lions on short rest, while the Cowboys took on an inferior opponent with extra rest. If you put the Cowboys against the Lions on short rest, it’s likely that the result would have been a blowout, which was the case in the 2024 meeting between the two teams. And if you had the Bears go against the Giants, we probably would’ve seen a similar shootout.

So, why then, should this line have moved by four points off the key number of three? It makes no sense. The Bears are equal to the Cowboys, who will be missing their starting center. They shouldn’t be home underdogs, although it’s not like we’re getting amazing value at +1 because I think the line should be Chicago -1.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still think there’s too much line movement in this game, but if you bet the Bears, you need Caleb Williams to win a game for your bet to win. That’s not a great proposition.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears have some serious cluster injuries in the secondary. Their top outside cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, and top nickel corner, Kyler Gordon, are both out. They’re also missing key backup Jaylon Jones. The Bears have just four healthy cornerbacks for this game, and two of them are non-talents named Nick McCloud and Josh Blackwell. I am switching my pick to Dallas.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned Saturday, I changed my pick, but I don’t like the Cowboys enough to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears will have D’Andre Swift, but they’ll be missing so many defensive players. The sharps are on the Cowboys, perhaps because of this reason. The best line is Dallas -1 -110 at FanDuel and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.

Computer Model: Bears -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 53% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -2.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 77 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: So far, so good for Mac Jones. The former first-round pick was the butt of most jokes heading into Week 2, but he composed himself well, albeit against the Saints. He made quality throws and didn’t really commit any major blunders, leading the 49ers to a win.

We’ll see if Jones can do it again, but what we do know is that he is surrounded by some talented players who have positive matchups. This includes Christian McCaffrey, who will be going up against an Arizona defense that struggled versus Alvin Kamara in Week 1.

The Cardinals don’t have the best secondary either, so Jones will be able to connect with his receivers. George Kittle is out, but Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings have both flashed at times this year.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Though the Cardinals scored 27 points before garbage time last week, Kyler Murray didn’t have a good game. He threw a horrible interception, failed to connect with Marvin Harrison Jr. often, and missed some passes. All of this happened against a horrible Carolina defense.

Murray will be taking a step up in class, as he’ll be forced to go up against a defense not ranked in the bottom five for the first time all year. San Francisco’s pass rush should prove to be too devastating for Murray, who couldn’t even throw for 200 yards in the one real meeting between the teams last year.

The 49ers should be able to do a number on the Arizona rushing attack. James Conner has yet to eclipse 40 rushing yards in a single game this year, while Trey Benson isn’t a very good runner despite his explosive ability. He tries to break it outside too often, which won’t fly against this defense.

RECAP: As mentioned in the Vikings-Bengals pick capsule, one of my favorite betting angles is to wager on good teams with backup quarterbacks as long as they’re not battling elite defenses. We did this last week with the 49ers against the Saints. San Francisco was up 26-14 in the fourth quarter, easily covering the three-point spread.

The 49ers were obviously underpriced against the Saints, and that’s once again the case this week. It’s ridiculous that the 49ers, who are better than the Cardinals, even with Jones under center, are just -1.5. I made this line -4.5, so we’re getting three points of value, all while crossing the key number of three.

In addition to the great line value, there’s an interesting dynamic with Arizona. I’ve mentioned repeatedly over the past couple of weeks that the Cardinals sit on bad teams. At the same time, however, Arizona has a severe issue beating good opponents. Last year, the Cardinals were 2-8 against Group A and Group B teams, beating only the injury-ravaged 49ers and the Dolphins, who were welcoming back Tua Tagovailoa from a concussion. The 49ers, who didn’t have McCaffrey in that matchup, should be able to defeat Arizona.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brock Purdy will have a chance to play in this game, but that’s not something I wanted to see. Purdy could be less than 100 percent, which would make it more difficult for the 49ers to cover. I never thought I’d say this, but I’d have Mac Jones.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sounds like Mac Jones will start despite Brock Purdy being questionable. Jones has a very easy matchup because the Cardinals have some serious cluster injuries at cornerback. Will Johnson, the star rookie corner, is out. Garrett Williams was placed on injured reserve. Sean Murphy-Bunting was already out. Max Melton, currently the starting slot corner, is questionable with all limited practices. If Melton sits, the Cardinals will have three healthy cornerbacks, so safety Jalen Thompson will probably have to move to corner.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are on the Cardinals, but I still love the 49ers.

TOUCHDOWN PROP: DraftKings is offering a no-sweat anytime touchdown bet, up to $50. We’ll go with Ricky Pearsall because of the injuries and matchup. The odds are +190 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jauan Jennings is out, but the Cardinals are missing multiple cornerbacks and also multiple offensive linemen because Paris Johnson is sidelined. Despite this, the sharps are on Arizona. The best line is -1.5 -105 at Bookmaker. BetMGM has a 20-percent boost, up to $25.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Slight lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 62% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Kyler Murray is 20-9 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 77 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s been two weeks, yet we’ve seen no signs of life from the Chiefs on this side of the ball. Granted, they’ve battled the Chargers and Eagles, and now they get to taken on a team that just surrendered 40 points to the opposition, so they’ll have a chance for a breakout game, right?

Well, maybe not. Even though the Giants allowed 40 points to the Cowboys, they still hve some great things going for them defensively. The pass rush, primarily, is fantastic. This is not good news for the Chiefs, who can’t block at all. Kansas City has two major liabilities at left guard and right tackle, and while their left tackle is a promising rookie, he’s not very good yet either. The Giants, armed with some terrific front-seven personnel, can capitalize on this weakness.

The Chiefs also aren’t running the ball well to compensate for their lackluster passing attack. Patrick Mahomes is doing everything on his own, scrambling with reckless abandon. The Chiefs will pick up some first downs this way, but that’s not sustainable.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Giants allowed 40 points to the Cowboys, they also scored 37 in a thriller. Russell Wilson launched so many beautiful moon balls, and Malik Nabers completely dominated.

It would be surprising, however, if the Giants continued to perform this way. Remember that their offense was barely functional in Week 1. Like the Chiefs, the Giants have poor blocking, which the Cowboys couldn’t take advantage of this past Sunday. While Kansas City has holes on the offensive line, the defensive front is packed with talent. Wilson will be running for his life in this game, especially if Andrew Thoms is sidelined again.

The Giants won’t be able to run the ball either. Cam Skattebo looked impressive last week, but he’ll have a tough task this week because the Chiefs have a top-tier ground defense.

RECAP: The Chiefs are 0-2, but they’ve battled two teams in the top five of the NFL Power Rankings. Some may think the sky is falling, but the Chiefs are just a couple of plays away fom being 2-0 versus two very difficult opponents.

The Giants are not a difficult opponent. Steve Spagnuolo will have a better game plan for Wilson than Matt Eberflus did last week. New York’s offense was pathetic against a real defense in Week 1, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into what Wilson did against that Dallas abomination in Week 2.

Not only are the Chiefs the better team; they’re also in a great spot. They’ll be desperate to climb out of their 0-2 hole, so they’ll be treating this like a must-win game.

I’d say that Kansas City should be able to win pretty comfortably, but I worry about their offensive line going up against a very talented Giants defensive front. Kansas City hasn’t shown an ability to pass protect very well, so the Giants should be able to take advantage of that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Patrick Mahomes showed up on the injury report with a wrist. He practiced fully, but that’s something to monitor.

SATURDAY NOTES: Evan Daniel talked me off the Chiefs during out Thursday night pick show:

I may actually bet the Giants if Andrew Thomas is active. I’ll let you know a half hour before the game.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 rushing yards. Mahomes has run for 57 and 66 yards in his first two games because he’s had no choice. He has no one to throw to at the moment. We can safely bet his rushing overs until Rashee Rice returns from suspension. The best number is over 26.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they’re offering a 33-percent boost on this game. We’re going with Mahomes over 29.5 rushing yards, Cam Skattebo under 36.5 rushing yards, and Theo Johnson over 21.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $174.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll have to see what Andrew Thomas’ status is. That’ll dictate whether or not I bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no words for what happened today. I thought last week was bad with those three back-door drives in the final minute, but we had the Eagles blocked field goal and then the 49ers spread being decided by a safety. Whatever. I’m too tilted to do anything here outside of a promo I’ll let you know about, though Andrew Thomas will be back in the lineup. I thought the sharps might come in on the Giants, but they haven’t touched this game. The best line is +6 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

As for the promo, FanDuel is offering a 50-percent boost, up to $50. FanDuel has a line of +5.5, so we need to take an alt line of +6.5. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs will be desperate to climb out of an 0-2 hole.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -8.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 55% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 100-26 SU, 66-58 ATS (52-44 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 13-10 ATS after a loss.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-12 ATS as a road favorite of 7+. ???

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 64 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Motors where tonight the Detroit Tigers host the Baltimore Colts. Will Jordan Golf beat the purple guys who have Ray Lewis? Who cares!? Guys, this is ridiculous. It’s been three weeks, and my Philadelphia Eagles have yet to be featured on Monday Night Football. If this continues, I’m going to quit and focus on my Nick Foles bobblehead collection instead. Mark my words, broadcasting network, you’ll be without the greatest football announcer in the world soon if you continue this nonsense!

Emmitt: Thanks, Mark. I think you need to you need to focus on better player if you going to booster your bubble head collectionism. Nick Folds once wonned a Super Game but he no longer playing in the National League of Football. Maybe you gonna get a good player like Lamar Johnson or Patrick Mah- uhh, MahJohnson.

Reilly: Emmitt, believe me, no one is a bigger football expert than me, so no one knows how much Patrick MahJohnson and Lamar Johnson suck more than me. In fact, you suck for telling me to give up my Nick Foles bobblehead collection. Foles is a god amongst men, and I know that one day my Nick Foles bobblehead collection will be worth millions, if not billions. Idiots collect Bitcoin, which Mother says is the devil. I collect Nick Foles bobbleheads, which are more lucrative.

Tollefson: Reilly, if you really want to get into the investment game, can I interest you in my meme coin, WomenSlaves.X? It’s only worth 0.001 cents right now, but I have a price target of $10 on it, so if you buy a million coins, you will be worth $10 million. Trust me. WomenSlaves.X is backed by female slaves, and as someone who is deep in the game, I guarantee that this will carry value, and I guarantee that I won’t dump my coins into the open market, lowering their value to 0.0000001.

Reilly: Tolly, I’m not pretending to be Jack Reilly, so I can’t talk to women without getting into trouble with Mother, and I certainly can’t own any meme coins, though it sounds like a great deal. Maybe Mother will one day allow me to own meme coins, but she says that is the devil as well. Speaking of things Mother calls the devil, Clarissa Thomas is going to bring us the latest from the field. Clarissa?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mark. Before I give you my report from the field, I’d like to sell you on my meme coin, InaccurateReports.X. It’s backed by inaccurate reports from sideline reporters. This, of course, does not include me because I’m giving you great reports like the latest: Barry Sanders has returned from the underworld and will play quarterback for Detroit tonight. Back to you, Jack!

Tollefson: This gives me a great idea. What if in addition to enslaving living women, I go to the underworld and kidnap deceased women and force them to cook and clean naked for me?

Reilly: Tolly, if necromancy were a thing, I’d destroy Charles Davis and then go to the underworld and bring him back to life so I could destroy him again. Ha! But before Charles Davis can get in a word and call me names, let’s go to our new special analyst, Mina Kimes, who told us last week that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback.

Mina Kimes: I don’t think you realize how impressive it was for me to come up with that tidbit for you last week. I had to overcome being not only a woman, but an Asian woman, so it’s about 729 times harder for me to give you absolute gems like that fact. That’s why I want you to buy my meme coin, OppressedAsianWomanNFLAnalyst.X. This meme coin is powered by oppressed female Asian NFL analysts who give you absolute golden nuggets like Geno Smith being a top-one quarterback. I swear, I won’t rug pull you either.

Reilly: Why does everyone have a meme coin!? What about you, blonde NFL female reporter?

JourdanRodrigue: Please buy my meme coin, FemaleReporterWhoDoesn’tReportOnHerNFLTeam.X!

Reilly: I feel so left out. New Daddy, please tell Mother that I need to sell a meme coin. Or, do you also have meme coins to sell?

Jay Cutler: I don’t care if I make money or not, but please buy MyStepSonIsALoser.X.

Reilly: New Daddy, who is your stepson? He must be a real loser if you named your coin after him. I’m your stepson, too, but I’m a cool guy who collects Nick Foles bobbleheads, so I can’t possibly be a loser.

Charles Davis: Kevin, I have lots of meme coins to sell you, Kevin. How about KevinReillySucks.X, Kevin? I like KevinReillyHasNoFriends.X, Kevin. Next is KevinReillyLivesInHisMom’sBasement.X, Kevin. What do you think about KevinHasNeverTouchedAGirl.X, Kevin? Let’s-

Reilly: Charles Davis, first of all, I don’t live in my mom’s basement; I have my own bedroom on the second floor. And I touched a girl because I give Mother foot massages every Saturday night. So, take that, loser! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Lions have a long history of struggling against mobile quarterbacks. Josh Allen had his best game of the season against Detroit in 2024, while Lamar Jackson tore the Lions defense apart the prior year. Jackson will have a second shot of doing so this week.

There’s no reason to think that Jackson shouldn’t have another great game. The Lions aren’t full strength because they’re still missing a few starters who were injured last year. Jackson is playing great football right now, and there’s an outside possibility he’ll have a new weapon at his disposal with Isaiah Likely due back soon.

The Lions will at least have a chance to contain Derrick Henry. Detroit has possessed a pass-funnel defense in recent years, but the team has done a good job of bottling up rushers. Henry will still have a chance to have some big gains, but this is not a positive matchup for him.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions couldn’t generate any sort of offense in the opening game, but managed to get their act together this past Sunday. Of course, that was very easy to do because the Bears have a poor defense that wasn’t addressed this offseason.

Baltimore’s defense is much closer to Green Bay’s than Chicago’s. This wasn’t the case last year when the Ravens were torched often in the first half of the season, but they’ve corrected their issues and now have talent in the defensive backfield. They’re also better at rushing the passer, which isn’t good news for Jared Goff, who will continue to play behind an offensive line that lost its top two interior blockers this past spring.

Like the Ravens, the Lions won’t have much luck moving the chains with their running backs. Baltimore is stout versus the rush, so Jahmyr Gibbs will be contained for the most part.

RECAP: Anyone who was worried about the Lions after Week 1 felt better about them after last week’s 52-21 victory over Chicago. Everyone but me, that is.

I’m still bearish on the Lions. The issue with the two new coordinators and the regression of the offensive line won’t just go away because of a win over a bad team that had a short week of preparation. They looked pathetic against the Packers, a team that is obviously in Group A, and now they’ll have to battle another team in Group A.

The Lions have not had a good history with these Group A teams. They were blown out in Baltimore two years ago, while Buffalo took it to them last season. They had a lead against the 49ers in the NFC Championship two years ago, but they had a miserable second half and were lucky to cover.

I like the Ravens to cover the -6. You could maybe talk me into the Lions if they had their personnel and offensive linemen from last year, but they’re all gone. The Ravens are better, and there’s no reason to expect them to be unfocused in this marquee matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Thus far, the public is on the Ravens, while the sharps are backing Detroit. I don’t get why the sharps like the Lions so much, but then again, I’m extremely low on them to begin with.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens have a number of key players who haven’t practiced yet this week, so we’ll have to wait until the injury report is released.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nnamdi Madubuike is out this week, which is a huge deal. I like the Ravens, but it makes me less likely to bet them.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I don’t understand Mark Andrews’ receiving yards prop. It’s at 35.5, yet he hasn’t topped five receiving yards in a game this year. Maybe he rebounds, but he could just be washed. Also, the Lions play well against tight ends. They allowed 19 yards to Tucker Kraft and 26 yards to the combination of Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland. The best number is under 35.5 receiving yards -108 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

BetMGM has a 33-percent profit boost for NFL parlays. We’re going with Andrews under 35.5 receiving yards, Lamar Jackson over 45.5 rushing yards, and David Montgomery under 37.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $133.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Ravens are going to be missing three key defenders: Nnamdi Madubuike, Kyle Van Noy, and Jaire Alexander. Isaiah Likely is sidelined as well. Given the injuries, as well as the sharp action on the Lions, I’m going to drop my unit count to one. The best line is -4.5 -108 at Bookmaker, followed by -4.5 -110 at BetMGM. However, FanDuel is offering a 50-percent profit boost, up to $50. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

LIVE BET: Just live bet Lamar Jackson over 36.5 rushing yards -115 at DraftKings (1 unit).

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Public on the Ravens, sharps on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 65% (294,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Lamar Jackson is 16-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 72 degrees. Light wind.