2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Jets at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Neighborhood Run Amok. Find out what’s gone wrong with my once-peaceful neigborhood.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: We just saw the Jets outgain the Chargers in both net yards and yards per play, yet lose on Monday night. How did this happen? Well, it began with a surrendered punt return touchdown, but it was way more than that. The Jets fumbled four times, including twice by Zach Wilson, who looked like a deer in the headlights in the pocket. Wilson held the ball forever and paid the price.

Wilson faced major issues against the Chargers pass rush, and he’ll have similarly difficulty in this contest, although less so. The Raiders have gotten after the quarterback well lately, as Maxx Crosby has been a complete terror. Crosby will hound Wilson all evening. It would help if the Jets had healthier protection, but given how long Wilson holds the ball in the pocket, I’m not sure it’ll matter.

However, there’s a difference between this matchup and the one we saw Monday night. That would be the opposing run defense. The Jets couldn’t run the ball against the Chargers’ stalwart front. The Raiders, conversely, have shown a severe inability to stop the rush. The Lions rammed the ball down the Raiders’ throat two weeks ago, and the Giants would have done the same thing with Saquon Barkley if the game hadn’t gotten out of hand in the wake of Daniel Jones’ torn ACL. Breece Hall figures to have a big performance.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Many looking to bet this game will be eager to fade Wilson, unaware that the Raiders’ quarterbacking situation is even more unappealing. Aidan O’Connell played well last week, but this is a completely different animal.

The Jets have embarrassed great quarterbacks all year, as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert all struggled against their defense. These are all Pro Bowl signal-callers. O’Connell, on the other hand, will be making his third pro start. O’Connell has gone against the Chargers and Giants thus far, so he hasn’t come close to facing a defense like the Jets.

The one hope the Raiders have on this side of the ball is with Josh Jacobs. The Jets are a bit weaker to the run, but it’s not a glaring weakness by any means.

RECAP: I imagine people will be less eager to bet the Jets this week than they were Monday night versus the Chargers because of the 27-6 result. That game was highly fluky, however, as the Jets won’t surrender a punt return touchdown or fumble four times in a single game very often. Once again, the Jets had more net yards and yards per play, even before garbage time, so they’re a prime candidate to rebound.

This spread has decreased by a point, yet the public is all over the Raiders. This doesn’t surprise me one bit to see such an overreaction. I love the idea of betting the better team while fading a public underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is now pick ’em, as the public has been pounding the Raiders relentlessly. For those betting the Raiders, how do you think they’re going to score?

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets have moved back to a one-point favorite in the wake of the Kolton Miller news. Miller is the Raiders’ best offensive player, so he’ll sorely be missed against the Jets defense. The public doesn’t seem to care, as they’ve been backing the Raiders.

PLAYER PROPS: Two player props for Sunday night. First, I love the Breece Hall over 63.5 rushing yards, as the Raiders have surrendered the most rushing yards in the NFL this year. The best vig on that is -115 at BetMGM. Second, Jakobi Meyers under 43.5 receiving yards is appealing. It’s a small sample size, but Meyers has yet to click with Aidan O’Connell. Also, the Jets simply do not allow opposing outside receivers to do anything. The best vig for this prop is -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been a bit of sharp money on the Raiders, but nothing substantial.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s now no sharp money lean on either side. I still love the Jets, but I’m sure something inexplicable will happen, causing them to lose. The best line is -1 +100 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The public loves the Raiders, or wants to fade Zach Wilson.

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Raiders are 18-34 ATS as home favorites since November 2005. ???

Raiders are 33-54 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Jets -1.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.