2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Packers at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I heard the news late in the week when I already made up my mind about the game, but when I learned Saturday evening that the Packers were comfortable with giving Aaron Jones an entire workload, I should have re-considered my Packers fade. Jones looked like his old self versus the Rams, a team that handles the run pretty well.

Having Jones at full strength will give the Packers a fighting chance in this contest. The Steelers have been poor versus the run for most of the year, but this is something that is likely to change with Cameron Heyward back in action. With a game under his belt, Heyward should be better in this contest, especially after extra rest. Having Jones as a threat in the backfield as opposed to the plodding A.J. Dillon should help neutralize Heyward’s presence.

Jones serving as a distraction can only help “No Cookie” Jordan Love, who will have a good matchup if his offensive line can keep him clean. The Steelers have a great pass rush, so I wouldn’t count on that happening. However, Pittsburgh has been very weak to outside receivers this year, so there’s a chance that Love will finally be able to connect with Christian Watson.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There’s also reason to believe that Green Bay’s defense will be better moving forward. It’s difficult to tell from last week’s performance because Green Bay was going up against the inept Brett Rypien, but the Packers are much healthier than they were in the past. De’Vondre Campbell and Jaire Alexander are at full strength, with the latter performing on a high level for the first time last week. Granted, this was against Rypien’s receivers, but Alexander was bound to dominate sooner or later.

This is obviously bad news for Kenny Pickett, who certainly has his ups and downs. Pickett’s offense has been bolstered by Diontae Johnson’s return, and Johnson will be very useful in this game with Alexander likely to lock up George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth still sidelined with an injury.

The weakness of the Packers is their rushing attack, but the Steelers won’t be able to exploit that. They have obvious with their rushing attack, so it’ll be up to Pickett and one receiver versus an improved defense. That doesn’t sound great.

RECAP: Here’s another game in which I wish two teams weren’t playing against each other because I want to back both. This might surprise you about the Packers because they’ve been so dreadful at times this year, but I think they’re beginning to figure things out with their defense. Plus, Jones is healthy for the first time in a while. The Steelers, conversely, are top 10 in the metrics and will only continue to improve with Heyward and Johnson back from injury.

I’m going to side with the Packers because Pittsburgh won’t be able to exploit their big weakness. Plus, I get the feeling the Steelers are going to win an ugly game by one or two points and fail to cover because that’s just what they do. They kick so many field goals that they tend to have odd results of that sort. That’s all I have for this game, so let’s just move on to picks I actually like.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Mike Tomlin is great as an underdog, but as a favorite? Not so much. The Steelers are 70-87 against the spread as favorites of three or more under Tomlin. Now, you might be thinking, “Well, that includes very high spreads. He must be fine at -3.” That is not the case. Remarkably, Tomlin is just 7-14 against the spread as a favorite of exactly three. Oh, and get this: Excluding the Thursday night game versus the Titans, the last time the Steelers covered at home as a favorite of -3 or more was in 2020 when they bea the Bengals, 36-10. I like the Packers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I liked the Packers earlier in the week, but man, they have so many injuries. Jaire Alexander is out, so the top two cornerbacks are missing with Rasul Douglas traded. Kenny Clark, Rudy Ford and two starting offensive linemen (Josh Myers, Jon Runyan) are questionable with limited practices all week. I’m off Green Bay.

PLAYER PROPS: I love Aaron Jones in this game. He’s 100-percent healthy for the first time since the beginning of the season. This is a great matchup for him, as the Steelers have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards this year. The best number is over 52.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander and Quay Walker won’t play, but the Packers will have all of their other questionable players in action. That makes them a bit appealing, as does the fact that the sharps are on the Packers. I’ll bet a unit on Green Bay. The best line +3 +100 at Caesars and BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

The Steelers battle the Browns next week. This is after a win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.

Computer Model: Steelers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No one wants to bet on the Packers?

The Trends. Edge: None.