2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Broncos at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, where tonight, the Buffalo Sabres host the Denver Nuggets. Guys, instead of talking about tonight’s game, what if we just show Eagles highlights instead? I don’t know if you knew this, but I’m a super fan of my Philadelphia Eagles. And according to super fan bylaws, we’re not allowed to care about any other team, including these dumb teams tonight. What do you think, Emmitt, highlights or no?

Emmitt: Thanks, Setzer. I agree on you that we should do Highlights. This is my favorite magazine to read. I cannot understand what the alphabet on the page say, but Highlights have lots of pretty picture to look at, and as the ol’ saying go, “A picture is worth a thousand dollars.”

Reilly: Emmitt, stop teasing me. Mother won’t let me read Highlights because she says they’re the devil. And speaking of the devil, girls used to be the devil according to Mother, but now she wants to impress her friends at the hair salon by showing them that I can date someone hotter and more famous than Taylor Swift. The announcers have scheduled another potential girlfriend for me, so let’s see who it is. The card here says that it’s someone named … Cheer? The only Cheer I know is Cheer Bear, who would be my favorite of the Care Bears if they weren’t the devil like Mother says.

Cher: OH MY GOD WHAT IS THAT MAN DOING HERE!? I THOUGHT I WAS COMING HERE TO MEET A MAN WHO WOULDN’T TURN TO STONE AFTER LOOKING AT ME FOR FIVE SECONDS BUT WHAT IS DONALD TRUNK DOING HERE IF HE WINS AS PRESIDENT I’M MOVING TO NORTH KOREA!!!

Tollefson: Ah, North Korea. What a great place. Guys, did you know that if you kidnap any women and they refuse to cook and clean naked for you, you can send these women to North Korea for a $5 rebate? I don’t know what they do to them there, but I imagine they really teach them how to cook and clean naked well for their man.

Reilly: Wow, what a great place, hopefully Mother takes me there for family vacation there instead of Sesame Place this year. But Cher, I understand why you hate Donald Trump. He hurt a lot of people’s feelings on Twitter, so who cares if we had a great economy and no new wars under him? Feelings of adults mean more than anything. Tell them, John Festerman!

John Fetterman: Why was six afraid of seven? Because 700. The rogue in the cemetery doesn’t want to be with the hunchback from the clocktower. It’s time we sanction East Korea. It’s time to remove sanctions from East Korea. I’ll take Notre Dame by 60 points. What a horrible night to have a curse!

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Cher, I know you are a gross, old woman, but you are a famous songstress, so maybe Mother will approve. Can I force you to be my girlfriend now?

Cher: MY MAMA SAYS THAT MEN ARE THE DEVIL SO I USUALLY CAN’T DATE ONE, BUT I HAVE ONE EGG LEFT AND MY MAMA SAYS I’M A LATE FLOWER READY TO BLOOM. MY MAMA SAYS THAT IF I DON’T DATE A MAN SOON, SHE’S MOVING TO KUWAIT!

Reilly: Maybe we’ll take a family vacation together to North Korea and then Kuwait!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, Kevin. Sources close to Kevin’s mother say that vacations to North Korea and Kuwait are out of consideration because foreign flights are the devil. And speaking of foreign flights, Kevin, I’m about to get on one to procure 716 dosages of North Korean Covid vaccines just to make sure I’m well protected. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: So much for that vacation! Maybe Joe Bident will let us fly on Air Force One like Hunter did to conduct those deals overseas when he was vice president. President Bident, can we fly on Air Force One?

Joe Biden: Now look here, you cheese curl-drinking spoony bard, everyone knows that private Air Force One flights are for the president and his girlfriends. I met a woman the other day when I was hard at work at Delaware beach. She was a school teacher, and I told her I was interested. She said you want me on Air Force One, and I said I want you on the Air Force One runway with some of your brightest and most attractive students. She said no, so I had secret service rough her up and convince her to bring some beauties to the runway, and I was sniffing in the mile high club heh heh heh but when we landed, my nemesis Count Chocula appeared and said nexnilerescent. I grabbed a chain to kill the roach, but I said I apologize for not apologizing so he said you apologize and I said I apologize and then I got back on the plane to go to the situation room because my bum bum got wet.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he apologized to Count Chocula which is a total lie and a total disgrace that Sleepy Joe would say that, but Sleepy Joe is a total disaster and a total disaster, I talked Count Chocula, great guy that Count Chocula, and he said, “President Trump, you’ve done the best job as president anyone has ever done or ever will do in their lives,” and I said, “No, no, I may have done the best job ever, but that doesn’t mean that no one else will do a better job in the future, frankly, because scientists could clone me and install me as president in the future, and the clone could be better, not necessarily, but maybe better,’ those scientists and their cloning, they’re always doing a great job of cloning, but imagine if I decided to be a scientists, do you think anyone would do a better job of cloning than me, probably not, but those scientists are doing great work, the best work, but Sleepy Joe doesn’t believe in science, he doesn’t believe in humanity even, because he’s sleepy, and all he does, frankly, is sleep.

Wolfley: I FOR ONE CAN ONLY HOPE YOU BEGIN CLONING BECAUSE MY SIXTH-BEST FRIEND, A DINGLEBERRY WITH BOTTLE CAPS FOR ARMS, IS IN NEED OF A NEW PLUMBUS AND THEY CAN ONLY BE MADE BY CLONING.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! I’m about to seal the deal and make Cher my girlfriend! I’ll need to buy slight-blocking glasses so I don’t turn to stone, but I bet the ladies at the hair salon will be super jealous!

Cher: THE LADIES AT THE NAIL SALON WILL BE JEALOUS, TOO. AND I’LL EVEN HAVE AN EXTRA MACARONI AND CHEESE DINNER FROM MY MAMA FOR GETTING A BOYFRIEND WHO’S A FAMOUS TV ANNOUNCER!

Reilly: Wait a second, I’m just being used? You only want to be my girlfriend to impress your mama’s friends? I don’t want to be used. Tell her that I don’t want to be used, New Daddy!

Jay Cutler: Who is this old lady, and why does she smell like melted plastic?

Reilly: She was my almost girlfriend, but not anymore because she was making me feel used, New Daddy!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing used things, Kevin. Let’s begin with used clothes, Kevin. How about used cars, Kevin? Why don’t we get to used computers, Kevin? Don’t forget about used furniture, Kevin. What about used exercise equipment, Kevin? We can touch on used books, Kevin. And last but not least, used tissues, Kevin, which you used when thinking about Nick Foles, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I AM PURE FOR MY FIRST GIRLFRIEND SO I DEFINITELY HAVE NOT USED TISSUES IN ANY GROSS WAY, I SWEAR, BECAUSE USING TISSUES THAT WAY IS THE DEVIL ACCORDING TO MOTHER! We’ll be back after this!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s interesting how different these teams currently are compared to the early stages of the season. The Bills were an elite team back in Week 4, while the Broncos were fresh off their humiliating 70-20 defeat against the Dolphins. Denver was recognized as having the worst defense in the NFL, while Buffalo had a top-five stop unit.

My, how the turntables have turned. The Bills are now ranked 30th in defensive EPA, thanks to the numerous injuries they’ve suffered. The Broncos, conversely, have improved greatly on this side of the ball. They now rank in the middle of the pack. They’ve improved as players have returned from injury and some communication issues were solved. They generate good pressure on the quarterback and clamp down on opposing receivers, so they can slow down the Bills enough aerially to give their offense a chance.

The one spot in which the Broncos are still weaker defensively is versus the run. The Bills, however, aren’t built to exploit this liability, as their rushing attack is rather lackluster.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Bills have defensive problems, as stated above, but it’s still staggering that their defensive ranking has plummeted to 30th. Obtaining Rasul Douglas via the trade deadline should help, but Buffalo is still missing so much personnel.

The primary absent piece is Matt Milano, the Bills’ star linebacker. Buffalo is incapable of stopping the run or covering the middle of the field without Milano, so the Broncos will be able to establish Javonte Williams, who could be nearing the end of his pitch count.

The Broncos will also be able to exploit the problems in Buffalo’s secondary. The Bills have had issues covering receivers, especially those out of the slot. This is where Jerry Jeudy is stationed, so Jeudy could have a great performance.

RECAP: This spread looks like it was made in Week 4. Back then, the Broncos were +6.5 in Miami. The Bills were rated a couple of points ahead of the Dolphins, so you would have seen something like +7.5 for this matchup. Maybe +8.5 or +9 at the most.

This line, however, isn’t nearly indicative of how these teams are performing. The Bills and Broncos are much closer to each other because of the injured Buffalo players and healthy Denver defenders. I personally made this line Buffalo -3.5, but if you think that’s crazy, the EPA numbers suggest Buffalo should be -3!

Let’s take advantage of the sportsbooks not correctly adjusting. The sharps are doing so, as it seems like they’re finally right about the Broncos. This is a huge play for me, as we’re getting every major key number in an even matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’ll have to see what the injury reports look like, but as of now, the sharps are betting the Broncos at the highest rate.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Micah Hyde or Christian Benford for the Bills on top of their already-ravaged roster. I’d say the Broncos seem so easy, but we’ve been cursed.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may lock in the Broncos at +7 because it would suck to see this spread fall to +6.5.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I spent the entire night and morning looking over every single pick I’ve made this year, and I’ve come to a realization. I’m excited to implement it going forward, though we still need variance to go our way for a change. I still love Denver, though it seems as though we might get a viable +7.5 line at some point. The best +7.5 is for -119 vig at Bookmaker, which is not worth it. I’d need -115 to pull the trigger.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s still sharp money on the Broncos even though the line has risen to +7.5. The best line I see is +7.5 -105 at Bovada, followed by +7.5 -108 at Bookmaker. Let’s hope we can end this dreadful week on a high note. I liked Denver more than any other side this week, but who knows what that means anymore with our awful variance.

PLAYER PROPS: I haven’t heard many talking about this, but Javonte Williams had his workload restriction lifted in his previous game. This bodes well for his over rushing yards prop. The best number is over 54.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Bills just had a tough game against the Bengals. After this easy win, they get the Jets and Eagles.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -9.

Computer Model: Bills -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Sharps on the Broncos.

The Trends. Edge: None.

Russell Wilson is 33-15 ATS as an underdog.

Russell Wilson is 24-16 ATS in night games.

Josh Allen is 10-6 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 37 degrees. Mild/heavy winds, 17 mph.