2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: 49ers at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers were in shambles on this side of the ball heading into the bye. Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams were sidelined for multiple games, while Christian McCaffrey was on a pitch count after getting banged up versus the Browns. Everyone on the team should be healthy on offense heading out of the bye.

The 49ers will need all hands on deck in this matchup, which is not something I would have said even a year ago. The Jaguars are second against the pass and generate good pressure on the quarterback. It’ll be important to have Williams on the field to protect Brock Purdy’s blind side. Samuel being available to help Purdy navigate through Jacksonville’s secondary is crucial as well.

Purdy will need to rebound off some negative performances heading into the bye because the Jaguars also excel versus the run. However, it’s still incredibly difficult to stop Christian McCaffrey, who can create huge plays at any moment. Despite the difficult matchup, McCaffrey will still be able to spark some scoring drives.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The 49ers will have reinforcements on this side of the ball as well heading into this contest. No injured players will be returning, but rather someone obtained at the trade deadline. That would be Chase Young, who will be an enormous boost for a San Francisco defense that was ranked conspicuously low in the EPA rankings.

The trio of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Young will be incredibly difficult to block, and I imagine the Jaguars will have severe difficulty doing so. The weakness of Jacksonville’s roster is the offensive line, so this is an area where San Francisco can really dominate in this matchup. Trevor Lawrence will constantly be under siege, so he may have trouble exploiting the weakness of the 49ers, which would be the cornerback group.

Perhaps Travis Etienne will be able to assist Lawrence from being pressured too much. The 49ers looked like they had trouble versus Joe Mixon in the game prior to the bye. Mixon has endured a tough season, and yet he thrived versus the 49ers. Etienne has been much better than Mixon, so he could have a strong performance versus a San Francisco team ranked in the middle of the pack versus the run.

RECAP: I like the 49ers. I think we’re getting a short line with them in this game. Had they not gone into a three-game tailspin prior to the bye, this spread would definitely be above three. They lost three in a row, but only because of some key injuries. With the players returning, as well as Young joining the team, San Francisco should be back to where it was prior to the Cleveland game.

I wish we were getting the 49ers against a worse team because I like the Jaguars a lot. This won’t be a highly bet pick as a result. If San Francisco were battling an overrated team, this selection would be at least three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Jaguars. I can’t say I understand why. I’ve yet to hear a good case for the Jaguars, who have yet to beat an elite team, much like the Dolphins and Cowboys. And no, the Bills don’t count.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been wondering why the sharps have been pounding the Jaguars. Perhaps it’s San Francisco’s offensive line concerns. Trent Williams is not a lock to return to action this week, while fellow starter Aaron Banks has been ruled out. Banks is not good by any means, but it’s still another starter who could be missing. If Williams plays, I’m definitely on the 49ers. If he’s out, I’ll have to re-think this pick, but I won’t be betting this game regardless.

PLAYER PROPS: This is surprising, but the 49ers are in the bottom five of allowing fantasy points to wide receivers. Their cornerbacks have struggled this year, and we’re getting a great price on Calvin Ridley. He’s over 50.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Jaguars all week. I have no interest. The best line is -3 -115 at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

The Trends. Edge: None.

Brock Purdy is 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS.

Jaguars are 60-101 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 18-50 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.