2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Colts at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It’s truly amazing how putrid this Patriots passing attack is. Mac Jones was gifted a beautiful matchup last week against a Redskins defense that was already horrendous against the pass, but was made worse by Montez Sweat and Chase Young being traded. Yet, Jones struggled throughout the game, barely putting up any points and eventually losing.

This was not all on Jones because his Kendrick Bourne-less receiving corps was horrendous, but he made some mistakes he shouldn’t have made. This must be noted because Jones has another positive matchup this week. The Colts have been missing their top two outside cornerbacks in the past couple of games and can be beaten via the pass. Jones not having Bourne is a real killer, however, as Jones has to rely on crap players outside of Demario Douglas. JuJu Smith-Schuster has not been the same caliber of receiver as Jakobi Meyers was, so you have to wonder why Bill Belichick effectively traded between the two.

The one chance the Patriots have of moving the chains is on the ground with their two running backs. The Colts used to be stout versus the run, but that has changed ever since they lost Grover Stewart to a suspension.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Patriots also have a depleted defense. Belichick’s secondary would have confused the hell out of Sam Howell with a dominant performance, but they could do little to confuse him, outside of one horrendous toss into the end zone that was picked by Kyle Dugger.

This is also crucial information for this matchup because Gardner Minshew has been a train wreck as far as turnovers are concerned. Minshew melted down against top-10 defenses he faced when battling the Jaguars, Browns, and Saints. The Patriots had the potential for a top-10 defense earlier in the year, but with so many key players injured, that’s not the case.

Besides, the Colts can just keep the ball out of Minshew’s hands by feeding it to Jonathan Taylor. The Patriots are decent at stopping the run, but Taylor is a mega talent who can break through most tougher matchups.

RECAP: Two weeks ago, I compared the Patriots to being an ex-girlfriend. I was in an abusive relationship with them when they cost me lots of money in the Dallas, New Orleans and Las Vegas games. I then broke up with them and saw them with a new guy when they upset the Bills. I wanted to get back together with them when they played the Dolphins, but I realized that I needed to move on, and it ended up being for the best. The Patriots failed to cover versus Miami and Washington. Indeed, I was dating a new, hot babe, while the Patriots’ recent Facebook pictures revealed that they looked like they got hit by a truck.

However, I just can’t resist. I keep looking at the Patriots’ profile, hoping that she’d contact me, and we could rekindle our relationship. I have the urge to contact them – picking them this week, if you’re not following – but man, I just can’t. It would be too much of a mistake.

My argument is this: The Colts are overrated. They beat the Panthers by two touchdowns, but only because of two pick-sixes. They are extremely banged up. If there’s ever a game the Patriots can steal, it’s this one.

But I just can’t do it. I’ve been burned too many times. And so have the sharps, for that matter. What sort of mentality will the Patriots have traveling overseas anyway? The Colts at least have a chance at the playoffs, so they have hope. The Patriots have nothing going for them, so they could be going through the motions on this long trip.

After all that, I’ve decided to side with the Colts. I don’t love it, but it beats going back to that abusive relationship.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t have a desire to bet this game. I’m still on the Colts for no units because I think there’s a good chance the Patriots will mail this one in. If they don’t, however, they could certainly win.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts are still pretty banged up, being down their top two tackles and perhaps Josh Downs. However, they’re at least getting Braden Smith back from injury. I wish the Colts were healthier because fading the Patriots is very appealing. I am not very high on Indianapolis either, so I think this will just be a pass for me.

PLAYER PROPS: I like Michael Pittman over 65.5 receiving yards. In five full games with Gardner Minshew, Pittman has eclipsed 65.5 receiving yards three times, and he’s two yards away from it being 4-of-5. The Patriots rank in the bottom 10 of fantasy points allowed to outside receivers. The best number is over 65.5 -115 at BetMGM. I’m also going to bet Pittman to score the first touchdown. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Thank goodness this is the final one of these dreadful European games. The sharps haven’t touched this game, and I don’t plan on doing so either. If you like the Colts, the best number is -1 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Patriots could be sluggish going overseas with nothing to play for.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.

Computer Model: Colts -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bill Belichick is 35-16 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Patriots -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 46 degrees. Light wind.