2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Lions at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: There’s no doubt that the Chargers have improved defensively. They couldn’t generate any quarterback pressure to start the year, but they are now doing so very heavily. They also couldn’t stop the run, but they’ve been much better in that regard as well.

These improvements may not mean much against the Lions, however. Detroit has an elite offensive line, so it’ll be able to protect Jared Goff. This great blocking could help the Lions generate some positive gains on the ground.

However, the Chargers still remain weak in the secondary. If they can’t rattle the opposing quarterback, their defensive backfield is primed to get torched. Jared Goff should be able to have a strong performance throwing the ball to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers scored 27 points on Monday night, but their offense was really responsible for only 13, as two touchdowns came on defense and special teams. Of course, they were battling a great Jets defense, but the Lions aren’t bad on this side of the ball themselves.

The Lions are capable of generating lots of quarterback pressure as well, and they also happen to be stout versus the run. Justin Herbert will constantly be in long-distance situations, as neither Austin Ekeler nor Joshua Kelly will be able to find much running room.

However, the Chargers have a strong matchup edge in this contest, and that would be Keenan Allen versus the Lions’ slot cornerback. Detroit struggles versus slot receivers, which obviously does not bode well in a matchup against someone as talented as Allen.

RECAP: This seems like a nice opportunity to fade the Chargers, who have had some misleading victories recently. They beat the Bears by a large margin two weeks ago because Chicago constantly shot itself in the foot. The same thing happened to a greater degree versus the Jets on Monday night. The Jets surrendered a punt return touchdown and lost four fumbles, which would explain why the Chargers won despite being outgained in net yards and yards per play.

The Chargers have to regress to the mean eventually, and it could happen in this game. The Lions are a superior opponent that will feel comfortable in the Chargers’ indoor stadium. Also, this is a tough scheduling spot for the Chargers, who played a Monday night game on the East Coast and will have to travel across the country on a short week.

I think it’s telling that the spread has risen in Detroit’s favor despite the 27-6 result on Monday night. I actually don’t think the line is high enough, with the EPA numbers suggesting that it should be -4.5. I’ll take the value with a medium-sized bet on the road favorite.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The spread is up to three, but I still like the Lions. Detroit’s injured offensive linemen from prior to the bye are all practicing fully.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson will be on the field this Sunday, so there’s nothing not to like about the Lions in this matchup.

PLAYER PROPS: Austin Ekeler has cracked 47 rushing yards only once this year. Granted, he’s missed some action, but Ekeler has gone under that number in four of the five games he has played. It should be 5-of-6 after this game, as Detroit has surrendered the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year. The best odds are under 49.5 -111 at Caesars.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been on both sides of this game, betting the Lions up to -3 and then going with the Chargers at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps have had both sides of this game. The Lions seem even more appealing at -2 -110, which you can find at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.

Computer Model: Lions -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No surprise here.

The Trends. Edge: None.