2023 NFL Picks – Week 10: Panthers at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 9 Analysis: It seems like we sink to new lows as far as bad beats are concerned. I need to vent, so I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Vikings, 5 units (win): Even this win was BS. Jaren Hall came out firing, but got injured. The Vikings had to use a quarterback who was on the roster for five days. Josh Dobbs struggled as a result early, but thankfully we got the win.

Rams, 3 units (loss): I’m not pissed about this loss. I don’t have much to complain about here either. The Packers won 20-3, but this was a 7-3 game at halftime and a 10-3 game after three quarters. Then again, the Packers outgained the Rams by a wide margin. Where was this level of play against the Broncos and Raiders?

Texans, 3 units (loss): We had -2.5. The Texans scored a touchdown to go up two at the end. They would have kicked the extra point, but their kicker was injured, so they just kneeled down instead of trying the two-point conversion! What the f**k is this? We’re not even that far removed from losing our Pick of the Month on a safety. I’m convinced I’m cursed, and I’m being totally serious. How does one lift a curse?

Giants, 4 units (loss): Another bulls**t result, with Daniel Jones suffering a torn ACL when this was a 7-0 game. I’m convinced Jones wouldn’t have torn his ACL had I not bet the Giants. The Giants just quit with Tommy DeVito because they knew they had no chance, and I don’t blame them. Why the f**k is Tommy DeVito in the league? Is this part of a Make a Wish Foundation where he gets to experience being a backup in the NFL?

Cowboys, 3 units (loss): The Cowboys were stopped inches from the goal line not once, but twice in the second half of this game. Just one instance of crossing the goal line would have given us a push at the very least. The Cowboys would have gotten those inches had I been on the Eagles.

Jets, 3 units (loss): Punt return touchdown. Fumble. Fumble. Fumble. Fumble. Why can’t this happen to teams I bet against?

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet:

Chiefs -1.5 and Bengals -2: I’m putting these two together because I loved both sides early in the week, but didn’t bet either. I got talked out of the Chiefs because they traveled late to Germany. And I removed my Bengals units because of the shady reverse line movement. I’m just going to stick with my convictions from now on.

Redskins +3: I loved the idea of fading Mac Jones, but I thought the Redskins would be flat after trading away their two best players. I haven’t diagnosed motivational angles well at all this year (scroll toward the bottom to see.)

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Justin Fields was limited in Monday’s practice, but it’s unclear if he’ll be available to play this game. We don’t have much else to go on at the moment, though it’s worth noting that this spread rose from -3 to -3.5 upon that news being released.

Even if Fields plays, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent. Fields is coming off a thumb injury, so that issue could still bother him if he returns to action. Fields also has a difficult matchup against a Carolina defense that has gotten some key personnel back from extended absences. The Panthers can generate great pressure on the quarterback, which should bother Fields or Tyson Bagent because of some missing personnel on Chicago’s offensive line.

Despite all the negativity toward the Bears thus far, it must be noted that they’ll have a good chance to move the chains in this game because the Panthers are putrid versus the run. D’Onta Foreman figures to thrive in a revenge spot.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young is coming off an embarrassing performance against the Colts, which was worsened by C.J. Stroud’s incredible showing versus the Buccaneers. The Panthers outgained Indianapolis in net yards and yards per play, but lost by a couple of touchdowns because of two pick-sixes.

Young will struggle in most matchups, but this could be an exception. The Bears have been horrible against the pass all year. Montez Sweat will help, but the pass rush is lackluster, so Young will have as much time as he needs to locate his receivers.

Unlike the Panthers defense, Chicago is excellent versus the run. The Bears have shut down some talented backs recently, including Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs. Limiting Chuba Hubbard won’t be a problem.

RECAP: It’s still unclear if Fields will play. If he does, I’d lean toward the Panthers because there would be a decent chance that he would still be hindered by his injured thumb. We’d obviously have a higher spread, so the Panthers would even have a chance at a back-door cover.

If it’s Bagent again, I think I’d still like the Panthers. I’d like getting four of the six major key numbers by fading Bagent, who is prone to mistakes. The Panthers have an excellent pass defense that could cause trouble for the young quarterback.

I’m going to leave this at Panthers for zero units at the moment, but once we find out Fields’ status and get the adjusted spread on this game, I may have a bet of some sort. Check back later for an update!

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This one is tough to handicap. On one hand, betting Tyson Bagent as a favorite of more than three seems foolish. On the other hand, the Panthers are missing so many key players, including Brian Burns and C.J. Henderson. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this game will go.

PLAYER PROP: Jonathan Mingo has cleared 31.5 receiving yards in two of his previous four games. D.J. Chark is out, and Mingo will be playing against a pass-funnel Chicago defense. The best odds are 31.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If the Panthers were healthier, I’d bet them. I just can’t do it without Brian Burns on the field. The sharps have been betting them though. If you like Carolina, the best line is +3.5 -110 at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Bears fought hard as big underdogs and are now favored over an inferior team.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Bears -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Panthers.

The Trends. Edge: None.